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Baidu CEO: AI 'bubble' will burst 99 percent of players

52 点作者 teleforce7 个月前

11 条评论

maeil7 个月前
&gt; I think over the past 18 months, that problem has pretty much been solved – meaning when you talk to a chatbot, a frontier model-based chatbot, you can basically trust the answer<p>Yes, I&#x27;m sure if we ask a question about The Party to your (Baidu) model, we can trust the answer.
xk_id7 个月前
Can’t believe people still treat this kind of messaging about AI as expert opinion and not as advertising in its purest form. I guess those are the same people who see something profoundly meaningful in machine generated strings.
sfmz7 个月前
It takes so much money to be a player in this space; the ante went from ~$100k (GOOG, FB) to like $4B or 100k H100s. That&#x27;s how I arrive at the statement as 99% don&#x27;t have the cash.
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wkat42427 个月前
Hallucinations exist because people are using LLMs as knowledge oracles which they are not. I doubt it&#x27;ll ever be solved unless a new type of model is invented for this.
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kjellsbells7 个月前
I&#x27;m wondering if we are now in the Low Background Steel transition, as far as Internet content goes. I already see material on the open Internet that has very obviously been generated by AI. As the next round of Common Crawl or whatever is slurped in for training, AI ends up eating its own output. Does the quality of the material degrade at that point? Maybe we&#x27;ll end up searching for an Internet that existed before AI started rewriting it.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Low-background_steel?wprov=sfla1" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Low-background_steel?wprov=sfl...</a>
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vdfs7 个月前
90% is the startup fail rate even before AI
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hn_throwaway_997 个月前
Getting beyond the title, which I definitely agree with (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=41896346">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=41896346</a>), there was this nugget about hallucinations:<p>&gt; I think over the past 18 months, that problem has pretty much been solved – meaning when you talk to a chatbot, a frontier model-based chatbot, you can basically trust the answer<p>Can&#x27;t decide if he actually believes this, or he&#x27;s just spewing his own hype. While I definitely agree the best models <i>have</i> reduced hallucinations, going from, say, 3% hallucinations to .7% hallucinations doesn&#x27;t really improve the situation much for me, because I still need to double check and verify the answers. Plus, I&#x27;ve found that models tend to hallucinate in these &quot;tricky&quot; situations where I&#x27;m most likely to want to ask AI in the first place.<p>For example, my taxes were more of a clusterfuck than usual this year, and so I was asking ChatGPT to clarify something for me, which was whether the &quot;ordinary dividends&quot; number reported on your 1040 and 1099s is a <i>superset</i> of &quot;qualified dividends&quot; (that is, whether the qualified dividends number is included in the ordinary dividends number), or if they were independent values. The correct answer is that the ordinary dividends number (3b on the 1040) <i>does</i> include qualified dividends (the 3a number), but ChatGPT originally gave me the wrong answer. Only when I dug further and asked ChatGPT to clarify did I get the typical &quot;My mistake, you&#x27;re right, it is a superset!&quot; response from ChatGPT.<p>Anybody who says that LLM output doesn&#x27;t need to be verified is either willfully bullshitting, or they&#x27;re just not asking questions beyond the basics.
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more_corn7 个月前
My bet is on unverified AI going the way of the dodo. I’m sorta sick of hallucinated nonsense. I also don’t see a business use case for a lot of “cool” ai products.
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anonzzzies7 个月前
He thinks you can trust the answers of chatbots? That is disturbing. Sure I use them all the time, but only for coding ; code I can review and verify after ; many other things are either a lot harder or impossible and I know it really does make up stuff with Confidence, so I do not even try. This guy must know that is how it is as CEO of this massive company?
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v3ss0n7 个月前
When did hallucinations were gone? Which model?
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monero-xmr7 个月前
But YC just funded hundreds of AI companies. This would mean the world’s smartest investors are wrong. This is, frankly, impossible.
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