Since writing this:<p>* My colleagues Simon Grimm and Will Bradshaw did a much more thorough analysis which ended up in a similar place: <a href="https://naobservatory.org/blog/investigating-the-sensitivity-of-pooled-swab-sampling-for-pathogen-early-detection" rel="nofollow">https://naobservatory.org/blog/investigating-the-sensitivity...</a><p>* I've updated the NAO's simulator to include this data and estimate the effectiveness of different approaches to pathogen detection: <a href="https://data.securebio.org/simulator/" rel="nofollow">https://data.securebio.org/simulator/</a><p>* We've done some sample collection and are planning to be out at least weekly this infectious disease season<p>* We're making the data available in real time at <a href="https://data.securebio.org/sampling-metadata/" rel="nofollow">https://data.securebio.org/sampling-metadata/</a>