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Tech jobs are mired in a recession

54 点作者 jihadjihad6 个月前

9 条评论

solraph6 个月前
My take for SE roles is that it&#x27;s a combination of AI giving enough gains[0] to reduce head count requirements, combined with the higher interest rates cutting off the tap of free money for startups that never really made economic sense.<p>There&#x27;s also the absolute flood of CS graduates in recent years contributing to the number of applicants. I know governments have been screaming for more STEM graduates, but I suspect the numbers are far higher than what is actually required.<p>IMHO, the outcome of all this is that those devs who can&#x27;t actually code are going to be pushed out of the SE market, and things will normalise in 12-36 months.<p>(I say this all this sitting on the couch waiting for the results of second of three interviews after submitting my 30th application - I&#x27;ve literally never had to submit more than five - and that was where I didn&#x27;t get poached directly.)<p>[0] I&#x27;m not going to say it&#x27;s a _massive_ gain, but even a 10-20% increase in productivity from something off the shelf like Github Co-pilot would show up in employment numbers
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clintfred6 个月前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;zZETf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;zZETf</a>
sydbarrett746 个月前
With the coming tariffs, expect it to get way worse. We could be looking at the 21st century Great Depression.
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contingencies6 个月前
AI winter -&gt; AI boom &#x2F; tech winter -&gt; social cohesion winter -&gt; world war &#x2F; peace-winter -&gt; climate crisis &#x2F; permawinter. <i>Winter is coming</i>.
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1vuio0pswjnm76 个月前
What happens when interest rates are nonzero and the salaries of so-called &quot;tech jobs&quot; with so-called &quot;tech companies&quot; can no longer be paid from venture capital funding, i.e., debt.<p>When &quot;success&quot; is once again measured by receiving profits instead of simply by receiving investment.
game_the0ry6 个月前
Not sure how many of you went through GFC 2008-2010, but the job market for all jobs was objectively worse for all jobs (not just tech).<p>Young people who entered the job market 2012-2022 have never felt the anxiety from a truly bad job market.
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Ancalagon6 个月前
&gt; We have not seen the hiring slowdown everywhere<p>Literally every field except healthcare is losing jobs according to your own data. What are you talking about?
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faangguyindia6 个月前
With AI we got 10x productivity increase, people just don&#x27;t know how to leverage it effectively :)<p>After moving to India, I established an outsourcing firm catering to U.S. companies.<p>I quickly discovered that FAANG where I worked, there was too much focus on delivering quality to the point it sucked all the joy out of working.<p>I ran back to India and developed a coding approach I called &quot;code slinging monkeys&quot;. Basically you iterate and try random things till it works, you pit 3 developers together - whoever meets the test case first wins, gets reward banana (which is just some cash bonus). So their salary can shoot 2-3x if they get enough bananas. AI was absolute game changer. People are driven not by collaboration (why help someone else get ahead or even have your output lost in the team? When u can dominant and compete and win and show teammates you are clearly above them in intellect)<p>You can be verbally aggressive if that&#x27;s how you get the results :)<p>We also have a female tester who is supposed to be nice to the developer who got the most bananas. And she&#x27;s passive aggressive and bitchy to ones who are bottom . The number of bananas you&#x27;ve define your hierarchy<p>This way we are stimulating how things work in real world. Where people are driven by their own fear, ego, greed and how only winners are treated good.<p>Many of the developers who worked for me still show up from time to time and and tell me what I taught them was life changing. And they avoided all the mistakes and delusions when they started with us and it helped them become very successful later on.<p>In one of our earlier projects, we had a team consisting of three senior developers and five intermediate-level developers. However, with the advent of AI tools like Zeditor, we&#x27;ve significantly streamlined our processes. Now, the same work requires only one senior developer, while we&#x27;ve replaced the five intermediate-level developers with three AI-assisted junior developers.<p>The senior developer focuses on writing test cases, setting up harnesses, and conducting code reviews. Meanwhile, the junior developers handle coding tasks using a trial-and-error approach, guided by feedback from the senior developer.<p>We&#x27;ve observed that while junior developers often lack knowledge of best practices, they tend to be highly motivated. This is where AI proves invaluable, bridging their knowledge gaps and enabling them to deliver acceptable results. The senior developer&#x27;s experience ensures major issues are avoided and provides the necessary foresight to guide the team effectively.<p>Our work primarily involves building banking apps, pizza ordering systems, and healthcare applications for U.S. clients. This shift in team composition has not only reduced costs but also demonstrated how AI can empower less experienced developers to achieve professional outcomes.<p>Hiring junior developers with no prior experience is not only cost-effective but also offers flexibility. Once they experience burnout, they can be replaced with fresh hires, continuing the cycle.<p>While this approach is highly efficient and profitable for businesses, it raises concerns about its long-term impact on employee well-being and sustainability within the industry.<p>In market, average developer is most motivated at the start of the career, it can last 3 years, 5 years or 7 years after which we fire them if their banana reward count drops.<p>Yes there are 10x developers but they don&#x27;t come cheap and come with their own ego and not like we are writing cutting edge code so why we need these SOTA developers at all?
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WheelsAtLarge6 个月前
I suspect that the issue arises from the fact that fewer employees are needed. There was a time when many employees were simply slacking off and doing minimal work. Employers are ensuring that this does not continue.<p>Recently, I read that Nvidia, a company with a market value exceeding $3 trillion, has fewer than 30,000 employees. It&#x27;s hard to believe. I think we are beginning to see the problems that high efficiency can bring.
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