In 2008, I did some calculations to estimate the probability of Obama or McCain winning the election, using state poll results, and plotted the probabilities vs time, right up to the election. The results were quite interesting.<p>So, this year, I'm doing the same for the 2012 elections, and have put it all up on:<p>http://prespredict.com<p>I include both 2012 and 2008 results, and make an attempt to see how they correlate with campaign events and national news stories. There is also a section where I describe the methodology.<p>Let me know what you think<p>[P.S. I used bootstrap to get the site up and running quickly, but I'm not too pleased with how it looks. Any suggestions or templates I can use to improve the look?]
If you're unhappy with the default Bootstrap look, <a href="http://bootswatch.com/" rel="nofollow">http://bootswatch.com/</a> has nice free themes. It made a world of a difference when I ditched the default and used one of their themes on a current project.
99.7% for Obama in March, and 82.6% now?<p>According to you, the odds of Obama losing are now higher by a factor of 58. That is <i>huge</i>. What has happened in the last four months that justifies such an overwhelming shift?