Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?

Military victory has been a precondition to military punishment for all of human history. You had to disable the enemy’s forces before you used the threat of further violence to enact your political will. In fact for all of recorded warfare, it was expected that the victors would be able to commit what we today call war crimes with impunity. The default consequence of defeat was all of your men being killed, all of your women being raped, and all of your children being enslaved.<p>The advent of nuclear weapons and ICBMs flips this precondition on its head. We no longer need to defeat enemy forces to inflict shocking and monstrous pain upon our enemies, nor upon any nation of the world, nor upon even the entire world. America and Russia both have the hair-trigger capability to launch thermonuclear weapons to any point on the globe. It takes 60 seconds to launch an ICBM, about 10 minutes for SLBMs, and a few hours for strategic bombers to reach their targets. 3,000 thermonuclear weapons can be detonated in anger in the time it takes to commute to work.<p>Our psychology did not evolve for this environment, and in fact it had not evolved from the previous state of affairs at all because there are still people alive who witnessed the first detonations of nuclear weapons! A single generation!<p>We don’t know if we can survive this state of affairs. Our time is marked by “for the first time in history” and “unprecedented.”

The thing is, I no longer trust any news source. They all exist to serve their agenda, while rarely providing the real picture. So there is no way for me, as a regular citizen, to truly know what happens in the world or a particular regional conflict.<p>So while I do worry that there might be a bigger war, I also realize that the picture painted by the news, or the &quot;promises&quot; that different country leaders make, are meant to serve two goals: (1) keeping the general public in constant fear, and (2) making them (the leader) appear strong&#x2F;decisive in a regional&#x2F;international arena.

We are in the middle of multiple world conflicts, through regional proxies. People are experiencing the consequences of those conflicts, even dying. They are afraid of the continuing effects. Others are scared of possible future conflicts. Your question was probably meant for a specific group of people. When you say &quot;we&quot;, who is that? If you mean something that affects the U.K., like the setting of Threads, then it&#x27;s just a matter of distance and scale. Most people in the U.K. aren&#x27;t exposed to a direct threat of kinetic conflict, but that doesn&#x27;t mean the rest of the world is not in physical danger of some kind.<p>To answer your question directly though, I think we have multiple generations that have grown up believing that anything they see on the internet is not actually real or is happening to somebody else. That includes war. The idea of a global conflict is just a Netflix plot or something, not anything that could actually happen. Few people have met a combat veteran or war refugee, but lots of people have played Call of Duty. That&#x27;s their reference point. It&#x27;s just not real.<p>Consider this, even with all the condemnation of Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions, the shipment of arms. We are still using Soyuz spacecraft launched from Russia to go to the space station. We still share resources for all of that, including lots of money. That means there is a limit to the outrage, when it comes to economic and structural needs.

The Chinese Farmer Story<p>Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.”<p>The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses with it, and in the evening everybody came back and said, “Oh, isn’t that lucky. What a great turn of events. You now have eight horses!” The farmer again said, “Maybe.”<p>The following day his son tried to break one of the horses, and while riding it, he was thrown and broke his leg. The neighbors then said, “Oh dear, that’s too bad,” and the farmer responded, “Maybe.”<p>The next day the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again all the neighbors came around and said, “Isn’t that great!” Again, he said, “Maybe.”<p>The whole process of nature is an integrated process of immense complexity, and it’s really impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad — because you never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune; or, you never know what will be the consequences of good fortune.<p>— Alan Watts

Because a lot of people are still in denial, not believing this is a plausible scenario, just like they were in denial that a large war might break out in eastern Europe &quot;because we don&#x27;t really do wars anymore&quot;.<p>Worst part is, apparently, lots of politicians at the wheel also believe &quot;it won&#x27;t come to this&quot;.<p>Reality is going to hit like a truck.

Nothing had happened so far, so odds are diminishing with time, not growing up. At least for most people. Alert fatigue, if you want to call it somehow.<p>The potential is there. If it can happen, given enough time, it surely will. But the odds of happening in a specific moment, at least while tensions are not higher than when it didn&#x27;t happened anything in the past, may be seen as lower.<p>Reality is different than what it used to be in the 60-70&#x27;s. But that also means that new factors can be in play, for good and bad.<p>In any case, I think is more sure to be afraid of climate change. It won&#x27;t blow up tomorrow, but is something that is escalating up, and it may be trigger for more negative things, including, but not limited to, world conflicts.

Watching threads is always a mistake lol. Next you need to avoid watching this - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;When_the_Wind_Blows_(comics)" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;When_the_Wind_Blows_(comics)</a>.<p>I grew up with this kind of stuff being in the news all the time. I tend to try to avoid the news now or only visit it quite sporadically. It&#x27;s good not to worry about things you have no control over. Of course your world could come to an end at anytime in multiple ways. Try and keep a healthy body and mind and develop yourself and your relationships, what else can you do? Maybe investigate meditation and mindfulness.

I try not to worry about things that are not up to me. I will die at some point anyway.

russia is currently invading ukraine using russian and north korean soldiers with the aide of iranian and chinese weapons. russia has supported pro russian candidates in elections using social media propaganda through chinese apps like tiktok helping people like hungary’s viktor orban or 2016s donald trump get elected. they also likely will get an unknown romanian pro russian leader elected as well. russia has supported houthi rebels and has promoted the war in syria. russia has put in place and supported the pro russian break away state of transnistria that has disrupted moldova.<p>we are in a world conflict. the west has used it for war profiteering as they send all their old weapons to ukraine so they can buy new ones from their friendly local defense contractor.

The everyday problems are already overwhelming enough, I don&#x27;t have the mental and emotional capacity to add an another, hypothetical problem to the mix.

I try to keep some food at home (probably 2 weeks), it&#x27;s just the normal food so it&#x27;s rotating naturally. It&#x27;s also helpful for weird local events that are very rare, but not unheard. (Hi from Argentina!)<p>I should keep more water, but I&#x27;m too lazy. I have only probably only two days that is too few.<p>If I had time, I&#x27;d pick some iodine pills. They are small and have a long shelf life.<p>Anything else is too difficult or too far from my control.

No.<p>This may sound weird but being afraid or worrying about something that I don&#x27;t have much influence on is a waste of time and energy.<p>Yes, I do vote and are engaged in local politics, but ultimately it is up to the leaders we elect to make the decisions. But in critical situations it may be actions that does not favor me at all.<p>And I am fine with that, I go on with my life, while preparing as best as I can to handle whatever the future throws in my way.

It seems like there&#x27;s a difference between the discourse online and IRL. Whenever I talk to people online, I get this picture of people not really caring and, depending on the bubble, even being excited for conflict. However, when talking to people IRL, they are much more &quot;conservative&quot; in their opinions, and also more afraid.<p>What&#x27;s closer to the truth? Tweets or real life conversations? I mean on one hand, there&#x27;s less of a filter online and anonymity makes people dare say things they would otherwise not. It creates an interesting dynamic where other people hear those utterances and think just what you think: Why are people not afraid anymore? On the other hand, there&#x27;s also a HUGE amount of bots and third parties influencing online discourse. I think it will only become apparent after say ~10-20 more years, on which scale online manipulation is actually taking place. It&#x27;s insane.

Should we be scared? [asked in all seriousness, not as a quip.]

There are several possible reasons, but it may be because the strategic goals changed since WWI and WWII.<p>Those two worldwide wars were quasi-colonial wars. Powers of the time were competing to become as powerful economically and militarily as possible.<p>However, the war didn&#x27;t end with WWII, since at any time there were around 20&#x2F;30 wars in a quickly changing landscape. It&#x27;s just that were not done in the Western world (except in the Balkans in the 1990&#x27;).<p>Since that time there have been mostly two types of military conflicts by regional actors:<p>* Low-intensity conflicts (the multiple &quot;liberation&quot; armies, religious wars or warlords as in central Africa)<p>* Conflict between main powers via proxy.

My question: after having survived the Cold War without actually blowing each other up (and wintering everyone else out), why were people <i>so</i> scared of &quot;terrorism&quot; at the turn of the century?

Because everyone thinks they are the good guys. And good guys always win. ;)

Times can be difficult but we can have peace, practical guidance, and help. Noah warned people, and prophets warn and guide today (the same God, had prophets then, has them now).<p>More at my web site (in profile, no sales and low stylistic ambition), if you click on &quot;Things I want to say&quot; (about 1&#x2F;2-way down), then &quot;On peace amid commotion&quot; (also about 1&#x2F;2-way down), then skim that page and click at least the last link. Then read the entire page and click the links that seem most interesting.

I am, for all intents &amp; purposes, powerless to prevent it. And I can&#x27;t do anything meaningful to prepare for it. So why worry about it? I can vote for people I think will try to avoid it, and have normal preparedness for much more likely disasters, but beyond that there&#x27;s not much to do.

No. The elites in neither side would win in this particular conflict if it becomes much bigger. Because of that, it won&#x27;t happen.<p>However, the status quo of a frequent limited conflicts has significant profit potential, so you&#x27;ll still see these happening.

I am but what can I do about it.

I could make some arguments about economics, world order, and devastating weapons, but i think this above all: governments barely got their people to go along with covid measures.

That is a pretty wild movie.<p>Back in the mid 90&#x27;s my high school physics teacher made us watch it.<p>It is probably the most realistic depiction of what would happen if a nuclear war broke out.

I don&#x27;t think there&#x27;s much to be afraid of, for one simple if nonobvious reason: Russia has already won. There&#x27;s no point in fighting a war if you can turn the enemy into a satellite without firing a single shot.<p>They did so by deploying an incredible hybrid and cyber warfare machine, outsmarting what little defenses the West put up. They turned our democracies against us, weaponizing hundreds of millions of simpletons. In the 90s we dreamt that the Internet would galvanize democracy. It became an amazing weapon of subversion instead.<p>Russia leveraged kooky franchisees on the extremes of the political spectrum. Aware that they did not belong in politics otherwise, they were all too happy to cooperate.<p>In 2000 Trump sought the nomination of the Reform party and lost [1]. He was unable to leverage his money and Russian support into securing a primary win of a 2% party. Fifteen years and billions of rubles later, the Russian hype machine had been fully built out. He was guided to the 2016 Republican nomination with the precision of a hypersonic missile.<p>A similar story played itself out in virtually all other Western countries. Beware of the usual exceptionalist apologies - Trump, Orban, Le Pen, Farage are all cookie-cutter stories.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Donald_Trump_2000_presidential_campaign" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Donald_Trump_2000_presidential...</a>

&gt; why aren&#x27;t we so scared anymore?<p>Why bother being afraid if you can&#x27;t do anything about? I have enough more immediate stressors to consume all my worry bandwidth that there&#x27;s not enough left over for such things. Also, the inherent self preservation of people is always a factor. I mean, I have very deep concerns about the damage the second Trump administration will reek on US (and the rest of the world for that matter), but I am not afraid he&#x27;ll press the red button. He&#x27;d have as much to lose as the rest of us. Same goes for Putin and Xi.

Frankly, I grew up in the last years of the cold war and remember the collapse of the Soviet Union and the eventual coup attempts vividly.<p>It was ingrained in my memory that there is a large chance of nuclear warfare in mainland Europe. But I witnessed how Europe fairly quickly tbh dismantled its self defence capabilities by incompetent leadership.<p>At the same time, Russia has attacked multiple of its neighbours over the years, and the USA has started multiple fraudulent wars to sustain its hegemony.<p>I guess I’m jaded?

I don&#x27;t worry about things that beyond my control

TL;DR people don&#x27;t understand the dangers. They grossly underestimate the complexity and fragility of our current global supply chain and they especially underestimate their dependence on it. A major world conflict would make it difficult even to feed my cat. COVID should have been a wake-up call, but that has receded safely into the past as the &quot;normal&quot; ppl craved has resumed.

People can feel scared (paying attention) only for so long. War in Ukraine or climate change, it is happening in a too slow pace for people to keep attention next to their daily life, while they can&#x27;t influence those events in any way.<p>Can Putin end the world if he will be afraid enough of losing? Maybe. Can you stop it? No. Then why would you care?

100%, our leaders are playing with fire at this point. Their reasoning is also not rational. If you cannot use diplomacy with Putin because he is crazy, then why do you expect Putin to back down when you try to escalate to deescalate?

Honestly, people in real life are petrified about interest rates going up and losing their job. They don’t give a shit about global conflict. Not one person I’ve come across has even mentioned it in the last year.

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No, because I voted for Trump. Europe gets to take responsibility for the wars they start and escalate now. Not my problem.