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Unemployment Rate 7.2%

37 点作者 kp212超过 16 年前

8 条评论

pchristensen超过 16 年前
Greenspun sliced up the unemployment numbers and got 9.1%<p>Unemployment statistics were redefined starting in the early 1960s by the Kennedy Administration. First they took out the "discouraged", people who wanted a job, but had stopped looking. Under the Reagan Administration, the workforce was expanded by adding in members of the U.S. military, who were by definition "employed", thus shrinking the percentage of "unemployed". The Clinton Administration reduced the number of households sampled from 60,000 to 50,000 and "a disproportionate number of the dropped households were in the inner cities." Phillips doesn’t talk about prisoners, but we have greatly increased our prison population, most of those incarcerated are working-age men, and none are counted in the workforce. Phillips claims that "Based on the criteria in place a quarter century ago, today’s U.S. unemployment rate is somewhere between 9 percent and 12 percent." [Poking around at <a href="http://www.bls.gov/cps/" rel="nofollow">http://www.bls.gov/cps/</a> reveals that, in 2007, 146 million of us were working, 7 million were unemployment, and 4.7 million were classified as not in the workforce but "wanted a job"; an additional 2.3 million Americans were in prison, presumably due to their energetic work habits in illegal trades. The "U-6" series, published by the BLS but almost never reported by newspapers, shows an unemployment rate right now of 9.1 percent.]<p><a href="http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/philg/2008/04/23/cooking-gdp-unemployment-and-inflation-numbers/" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/philg/2008/04/23/cooking-gdp-un...</a>
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jbrun超过 16 年前
I never understood American unemployment numbers. Many countries operate fine with far higher unemployment numbers. Canada was at 7 or 8% for many years, France is often around 10%.<p>Also, I remember reading an article that talked about the vast number of people who are excluded from the American data. People in prisons for example - 2 million people. There are also people who do not file unemployment claims or are ineligible to do so because of much higher restrictions in the US compared to more liberal societies. Therefore, US unemployment figures are always about 2% too low, but it is one of these 'psychological' stimulus the government gives. If our unemployment rate is near 0, then economy must be doing great!<p>Please correct me if I am wrong.
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vaksel超过 16 年前
Those numbers are absolutely meaningless, since they count a $70K/yr job, in the same category as a $7/hr burger flipper.<p>You can take that 7.2%, and pretty much double it for all the people who got fired, and had to take a job paying half of what they used to make.
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steveplace超过 16 年前
And to be the contrarian:<p>The NFP is Meaningless<p><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/counter-intuitive-nfp/" rel="nofollow">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/counter-intuitive-nfp/</a>
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jmatt超过 16 年前
I'm interested in seeing how the unemployment numbers break out.<p>In the recent past, unemployment amongst people with a Bachelor's degree or better is about 2.2%^. So nearly zero. I'd imagine, though I'm not sure, that most people on HN have a bachelor's or better and thus most of us are at a lesser risk of unemployment than others. I think when this number changes we will know it's fundamentally different from other recessions that we've had in the last 30 years.<p>It's the rest of the population that takes the brunt of the economic downturn. Recently there has been reverse immigration, people leaving the US^^. And most of the people that are being hurt by unemployment don't have proper skill sets to just get another job.<p>I know a number of internationals working in the US and they are all still employed and in demand. Most people think that people on Visas are at risk. In fact I think there are plenty of jobs for the well qualified. Most of the professional Visa / Green card holders in the US got here because they were uniquely qualified - and that doesn't change with an economic downturn. There is, especially from my perspective, still continued demand for good IT people and good programmers^^^. Against popular belief but understood here at HN; not all programming jobs are outsourced. But many high schoolers and their parents believe this, so there are less people going into tech. This, of course, is good news for those of us who are already in tech. It also does a great job protecting us from economic downturns compared to other fields.<p>The WSJ, as usual, is out to sensationalize business as much as possible. I like the WSJ and read it regularly. I try to take it with a grain of salt. They'd like to have you believe the economy will never turn around. Because then when it DOES turn around it'll be great, new and unexpected news. In the end it's all about page loads or papers sold after all.<p>^ <a href="http://www.bls.gov/emp/emptab7.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.bls.gov/emp/emptab7.htm</a><p>^^ <a href="http://latinobusinessreview.blogspot.com/2008/12/hispanic-immigrants-leaving-us.html" rel="nofollow">http://latinobusinessreview.blogspot.com/2008/12/hispanic-im...</a><p>^^^ Reported by the ACM so take it for what it is... <a href="http://www.cio.com/article/466228/IT_Careers_Expected_to_Survive_Global_Economic_Storm_in_?source=nlt_ciocareers" rel="nofollow">http://www.cio.com/article/466228/IT_Careers_Expected_to_Sur...</a> and <a href="http://www.networkworld.com/newsletters/edu/2008/120108ed1.html?hpg1=bn" rel="nofollow">http://www.networkworld.com/newsletters/edu/2008/120108ed1.h...</a><p>[EDIT: Formatting, and some additions ;-)]
lsc超过 16 年前
now is the time to hire.<p>You can pick up some good deals. Right now, especially with the 'just out of college' crowd, and if it's like the last downturn, in a year or two you will be able to find good people who got discouraged and did retail work for a while.
nazgulnarsil超过 16 年前
keynes created the fetish of full employment.
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villageidiot超过 16 年前
The unemployment rate for IT workers is still closer to 2% according to an article I read somewhere recently (sorry, don't have the reference).