<i>What are the odds of the fire expanding to the rest of the world making a full circle?</i><p>I don't know how one would accurately calculate odds but your data inputs would be something along the line of:<p>- Areas of dense improperly managed brush (fuel, political and economic driven environmentalism)<p>- Areas of highly concentrated stick built homes (more fuel)<p>- Areas that get periods of sustained high desert winds.<p>- Mismanaged water sources (not saving rain water, letting nut and soft drink companies suck up all the ground water, letting 95% of rain water run into the sea or rivers)<p>- Concentration of unstable individuals that want to watch the world burn or have nothing left to lose except their life which they may not value any more. (Arson, mental illness, poverty)<p>California is isolated in terms of vegetation. There are too many barriers in the way to reach other states. Even the arson in Canada petered out because of natural barriers. The arsonists in California could potentially start shenanigans in Northern California to reach Oregon to get around some barriers but it would be lacking the predictable high sustained winds and the pot growers and lumber mills in true NorCal are quite vigilant regarding forest management.<p>So I guess it would be some number close to zero.
Its not one fire and, for any of them, probably not exactly zero, but close enough to it as to make no practical difference.<p>OTOH, if you count the separate fires as one fire and continue to expand the scope while doing that, it maybe already does, depending on how much toleration for gaps you have.
Stephen Leacock's A, B and C<p>(C is on his deathbed)
"A", whispered C, "I think I am going fast"
"How fast do you think you are going?" murmured A