> So what is this prediction he made, anyway, and why is it so impressive? Well, in 1914, six months prior to the outbreak of World War 1, Durnovo wrote a truly remarkable ~7,600-word memorandum for Tsar Nicholas II and his top 2 or 3 ministers, which we know was given to them, since it was found in Nicholas' papers and later published in 1922 by communist historians after the revolution. If they had only read it carefully and took its warnings more seriously, the world we live in today might look very different! So what did this memorandum say exactly? If you'd like to read it in its entirety in English, which is well worth doing, you can see it here.<p>> But I will describe its contents here, and why it was all so impressive. First of all, it carefully laid out a logical argument about the state of the world, and then proceeded to make a very large number of predictions— nearly every single one of which ended up coming true in the coming years.<p>> For one, it predicted an imminent war on the horizon, which he ultimately blamed on the collision course between England and Germany, which were the two greatest industrial powers at the time. This was certainly not some earth shattering or special prediction; a lot of people predicted some kind of big conflict, and it was often said that "war was in the air" at the time. In fact, Otto von Bismarck famously said back in 1888 that "One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans," which is often viewed as particularly prescient given the importance of the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in setting off World War I.