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Urban legend: I think there is a world market for maybe five computers

131 点作者 bschne4 个月前

16 条评论

WarOnPrivacy4 个月前
Leading contender for actual quote:<p><pre><code> &quot;... we expected to get orders for five [IBM 701] machines, we came home with orders for 18.&quot;</code></pre>
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ecshafer4 个月前
I haven&#x27;t thought about this much before, but I think it must be a myth. Going from the <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;History_of_IBM" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;History_of_IBM</a> wiki on the history of Wikipedia, there were &quot;Computing machines&quot; in the 30s referring to their calculators and tabulating machines. IBM was already selling more than 5 of these devices, so if the 1943 date was true, it makes no sense. So it referring to a single machine having a market of 5 devices, that might be true.
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tbrownaw4 个月前
It may be apocryphal, but it&#x27;s not all that wrong.<p>Those &quot;about five&quot; computers even have names: AWS, Azure, GCP, ...
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Analemma_4 个月前
People really love apocryphal quotes that portray famous or disliked figures as morons. Bill Gates never said &quot;640k ought to be enough for anybody&quot; either, yet that circulates to this day.
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thayne4 个月前
&gt; Some people question how much of the internet is a place that documents history, and how much of the internet is a place that writes and recreates history.<p>So, basically the same as things written before the internet existed. It&#x27;s not like people didn&#x27;t write down myths and legends on paper, or stone tablets for that matter.
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PeterStuer4 个月前
A litle bit more cloud consolidation and you could argue we&#x27;re nearly there.
codeulike4 个月前
There are similar statements from other people in the computing field around that time<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sciencebase.com&#x2F;science-blog&#x2F;predictive-text-darwins-ibm-computers.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sciencebase.com&#x2F;science-blog&#x2F;predictive-text-dar...</a><p>Sir Charles Darwin (grandson of the naturalist) who was head of the UK’s computer research centre, the NPL (National Physical Laboratory) said in 1946:<p><i>“it is very possible that … one machine would suffice to solve all the problems that are demanded of it from the whole country”</i><p>Douglas Hartree, Mathematician and early UK computer pioneer said in 1950: <i>&quot;We have a computer here in Cambridge, one in Manchester and one at the [NPL]. I suppose there ought to be one in Scotland, but that&#x27;s about all.&quot;</i><p>This 1969 talk by Lord Bowden about the 1950s explains the thinking behind that statement:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.chilton-computing.org.uk&#x2F;acl&#x2F;literature&#x2F;reports&#x2F;p014.htm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.chilton-computing.org.uk&#x2F;acl&#x2F;literature&#x2F;reports&#x2F;...</a><p><i>I went to see Professor Douglas Hartree, who had built the first differential analysers in England and had more experience in using these very specialised computers than anyone else. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that would ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers which were then being built - one in Cambridge, one in Teddington and one in Manchester. Noone else, he said, would ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them. He added that machines were exceedingly difficult to use, and could not be trusted to anyone who was not a professional mathematician, and he advised Ferranti to get out of the business and abandon the idea of selling any more. It is amazing how completely wrong a great man can be.</i>
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bitwize4 个月前
As I understand it... one of the reasons why the Soviets fell behind in computer technology was because back in the 60s, while Soviet engineers had good designs that were state-of-the-art for the era, the communist economic planners estimated the requirements for computer manufacture to be one per university or government department for a total of maybe a few thousand, while Western manufacturers were getting orders into the tens or hundreds of thousands... and they had to come up with new technologies to produce the machines faster and cheaper in order to keep up, let alone compete with other manufacturers. So the market in the west grew explosively, requiring concomitant growth in innovation, and that put the Soviets on the back foot, requiring them to smuggle in and reverse engineer System&#x2F;370s, PDPs, etc. in order to stay current.
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dr_dshiv4 个月前
I had thought, but perhaps incorrectly, that it was JCR licklider when discussing time sharing computers.<p>The idea that you could have massive computing centers that were serving world needs…<p>Sounds ridiculous, but then AWS, Google, Microsoft…<p>I can’t find it right now, so I’ll have to leave it to others, but his “Man Computer Symbiosis” paper from 1960 is amazing and you probably ought to read it in light of recent tech… <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;worrydream.com&#x2F;refs&#x2F;Licklider_1960_-_Man-Computer_Symbiosis.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;worrydream.com&#x2F;refs&#x2F;Licklider_1960_-_Man-Computer_Sy...</a>
jvandonsel4 个月前
&quot;I predict that within 10 years, computers will be twice as powerful, ten thousand times larger, and so expensive that only the 5 richest kings of Europe will own them.&quot;<p><pre><code> - Professor Frink</code></pre>
metalman4 个月前
The way things are going this might be an over estimate, what with the possibility of a space based completely stable billion cubit QPU&#x27;s, beaming all out data around with lasers, 3 might do it.
HeyLaughingBoy4 个月前
I can&#x27;t imagine <i>any</i> salesperson making a statement like that!
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unyttigfjelltol4 个月前
IBM confirmed they went into a sales cycle in 1953 expecting to sell five units of their first machine, the IBM 701 Electronic Data Processing Machine. We don&#x27;t know precisely how or to whom this estimate of five units was conveyed beforehand, but the gist of the statement appears likely.
amelius4 个月前
&quot;is&quot;, not &quot;will only ever be&quot;
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ChrisMarshallNY4 个月前
<i>&quot;Don&#x27;t believe everything you read on the Internet.&quot; -George Washington</i>
js984 个月前
This website is unreadable on mobile.