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CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

632 点作者 doctaj4 个月前

73 条评论

doctaj4 个月前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;DaBme" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.ph&#x2F;DaBme</a>
drewbug013 个月前
&gt; The agency made its new assessment with “low confidence,” which means the intelligence behind it is fragmentary and incomplete.<p>I do believe that&#x27;s all one really needs to know about this shift in their thinking. In other words: it&#x27;s really far from certain.<p>---<p>One thing that is, however, quite certain: there are very real political reasons to favor one theory or another. For example, Sen. Tom Cotton is quoted as saying:<p>&gt; “Now the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world,” Mr. Cotton said.<p>So... I&#x27;m not certain this is a development worth trusting. Maybe it really did originate from a lab! But the real goal of the constant back-and-forth over where it came from is not about finding the truth; that much seems quite obvious to me.
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jdietrich3 个月前
If we actually care about public health, we should act as if both the lab leak and zoonosis theories are correct. We should take laboratory biosecurity, wet markets, the bush meat trade and intensive livestock management equally seriously as threats. We should do this because we have no idea where the next pandemic - and there will be a next pandemic - will come from.<p>It seems fairly clear to me that a lot of people are much more concerned about finding someone to blame for the last pandemic than about preparing for or preventing the next pandemic.
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CMay3 个月前
Things that are true:<p>&quot;Officials said the agency was not bending its views to a new boss, and that the new assessment had been in the works for some time.&quot;<p>The Department of Energy concluded with low confidence that it was a lab leak.<p>The FBI concluded with moderate confidence that it was a lab leak.<p>The CIA&#x27;s new report also concludes that they have low confidence that it was a lab leak.<p>It&#x27;s important to note that low confidence is a positive number, not a negative number.<p>The wet market theory loses some credibility given some data points, but the lab leak theory remains plausible.<p>China has had lab leak origins in the past, so this would not have been unprecedented.<p>China obstructed and delayed the investigation.<p>Whether it leaked from a lab or not, China covered it up. China covering it up is not necessarily evidence that it was a lab leak. If there was any truth to it (which they may not even know), they probably wouldn&#x27;t want it reflecting poorly on the state. China is big on &quot;social harmony&quot;, so you don&#x27;t have the right to know.<p>Whatever happened wasn&#x27;t necessarily intentional. China made some deeply embarrassing and shameful decisions around this time and they won&#x27;t want to promote them, but they were also not alone in making mistakes.<p>If China concluded it was a lab leak internally and shared that, there wouldn&#x27;t have been as much need for the world to speculate, analyze and investigate so much which only hurt China&#x27;s reputation more.<p>Coincidences occur, serendipity occurs. Most people have experienced one. As a result, proximity to the lab is not solid proof, but it is not the only datapoint either.<p>If China was more transparent and cooperative, there could have been more information to make higher confidence conclusions with.
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snowwrestler3 个月前
I think it’s important to note that there are really two “lab leak” theories:<p>One in which the virus developed naturally, was collected in a remote location, and was being studied in a lab when it leaked from the lab into nearby human society.<p>One in which it was not a dangerous virus originally, and it became dangerous in the lab through human agency, either maliciously (e.g. bioweapons research) or accidentally (e.g. gain-of-function research).<p>Note that in the first theory, the <i>virus</i> has a natural origin, but the <i>pandemic</i> originates in the lab leak.<p>These two theories get mixed up constantly, either by accident or on purpose, who knows. For example look at this CNN story:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;amp.cnn.com&#x2F;cnn&#x2F;2025&#x2F;01&#x2F;25&#x2F;politics&#x2F;covid-19-lab-leak-cia-ratcliffe" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;amp.cnn.com&#x2F;cnn&#x2F;2025&#x2F;01&#x2F;25&#x2F;politics&#x2F;covid-19-lab-lea...</a><p>First paragraph: “The CIA now assesses the virus that causes Covid-19 more likely originated from an accidental lab leak in China, rather than occurring naturally”<p>Deeper in the story: “Every US intelligence agency still unanimously maintains that Covid-19 was not developed as a biological weapon” and “almost all American intelligence agencies also assess that the virus itself was not genetically engineered.”<p>So it didn’t occur “naturally” but also wasn’t developed or engineered. Makes no sense.
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chimprich3 个月前
The CIA is not a neutral party in this. Discrediting China may well be their goal here.<p>A lab leak is not impossible, but there are good reasons to suspect a natural spillover event. There have been a number of studies that point in that direction; e.g. recent genetic analysis that suggests that the Wuhan wet market was the origin.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cell.com&#x2F;cell&#x2F;fulltext&#x2F;S0092-8674(24)00901-2" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cell.com&#x2F;cell&#x2F;fulltext&#x2F;S0092-8674(24)00901-2</a>
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steveBK1233 个月前
It was never an implausible theory so the censorship over it was foolish.<p>Of course the immediate jump to conclusion in the first few months by some who found it politically expedient was no better either.<p>People need to be more comfortable saying I don’t know but we are looking into it.
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eightysixfour3 个月前
I had a pretty long post about this here before, due to the politicization of the issue it is highly unlikely any of us will ever know “the truth” without a surprise smoking gun. There are good reasons to believe the natural or the lab leak hypotheses.<p>I think you have to accept it is now unlikely we normies will ever know the truth.<p>The post, and its comments, are worth reading still IMO: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26750452#26751943">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=26750452#26751943</a>
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lolinder3 个月前
Can someone help me understand why a lab leak looks worse for China than zoonotic spillover? Why would Senator Cotton need it to be a lab leak to give him more leverage?<p>From what I understand, one theory is that China has for decades tolerated unsanitary wet markets that allowed dangerous diseases to evolve, get stronger, and eventually transmit to human hosts. They&#x27;d been warned about this over and over again and had failed to implement the required policies, leading to a preventable pandemic.<p>The alternative theory has China accidentally letting a disease leak from a lab.<p>From my perspective, if anything the lab leak theory is the one that makes China look better: at least it emphasizes that it resulted from China&#x27;s scientific pursuits and not their lack of health codes!<p>Why would the China hawks need a lab leak in order to China hawk?
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mmustapic3 个月前
So there’s a new president and the main intelligence agency changes its position radically in alignment with the new government. Why should we be confident in any other claim they made in the past?
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breadwinner3 个月前
Americans had a role to play here as well:<p>In 2014, Obama administration halted the so called &quot;gain of function&quot; research because of laboratory accidents.<p>In 2017, Trump administration restarted the research. See links below.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;10&#x2F;18&#x2F;us&#x2F;white-house-to-cut-funding-for-risky-biological-study.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;10&#x2F;18&#x2F;us&#x2F;white-house-to-cut-fun...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2017&#x2F;12&#x2F;19&#x2F;health&#x2F;lethal-viruses-nih.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2017&#x2F;12&#x2F;19&#x2F;health&#x2F;lethal-viruses-nih...</a><p>The U.S. government, through the National Institutes of Health (NIH), provided funding to the EcoHealth Alliance, an American non-profit organization focused on studying emerging diseases. The EcoHealth Alliance, in turn, provided funding to the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China for researching bat coronaviruses.
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aucisson_masque3 个月前
If the cia wants to prove something, they do. See the Saddam Hussein weapon of mass destruction that never actually existed.<p>The fact they can&#x27;t prove it and have low confidence on this theory means it has absolutely zero credibility.<p>I see a pattern in the news these last month of warmongering, from the US to China. Maybe I&#x27;m wrong but history has shown that with the us, everytime they want to make a war they first got to brainwash their population into that for a few years and then they find any convoluted reason to get in while pretending they&#x27;re merely defending them or others.
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ndr423 个月前
I found this recent interview with Christian Drosten [1] very interesting, he explains very good scientifically why it is much more probable that the origin is not from a laboratory.<p>A quick summary of <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=av2Hax3Bg1U" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=av2Hax3Bg1U</a><p>(1) The area where the Nyctereutes spec. (german: Marderhund, I have no idea how it is called in english) where kept, there where a lot of DNA of Nyctereutes and a lot of nucleinacid of SARS II.<p>(2) From the beginning there a two lines of the corona viruses laboratory-confirmed. From the evolutionary speed of virus mutation it is nearly certain that the separation had to be taken place months before. About 8 times a corona-variation had been aquired by man. From this infection chains 2 virus-types had survived to be confirmed in Wuhan. A person who works in the laboratory would have been working with a clonal virus that is not mutated in that way.<p>(3) The market is the center of all infections even if you take out everybody that is known to be at the market, not the laboratory.<p>(4) For the animals at the market a analysis showed that they had been ill&#x2F;infected (not specifically corona)<p>These are all separate published aspects that points to the same thing.<p>The part starts at 2 hours 23 minutes 30 seconds - you have to use auto-translated subtitles which are unfortunately not very good (german language)<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Christian_Drosten" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Christian_Drosten</a><p>edit: grammar
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juliushuijnk3 个月前
Apart from directing anger for political reasons, I don&#x27;t see the big importance.<p>It&#x27;s like wondering why a single building caught fire, when the shocking thing was that the whole world caught fire. Surely the lessons to learn are with &#x27;how to deal with a spreading fire&#x27;, and not with &#x27;how to prevent a fire&#x27;.
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Workaccount23 个月前
We will probably never know what happened unless the CCP collapses and all the documents leak out.<p>China had a bit of a freak out when the pandemic first started and pretty much silenced everyone close to the lab and kept everyone else out. It was until months&#x2F;years later that China started allowing chosen data out, and who knows the truthfulness of it.<p>Authoritarian regimes, especially China, are the furthest thing from transparent.
gtgvdfc3 个月前
What I never understood about the politicization of the lab leak theory is this:<p>How is it more racist and Sinophobic to support the lab leak theory vs the wet market one?<p>The lab leak theory has single individuals messing up.<p>The wet market theory judges an entire nation&#x27;s culinary habits.<p>Of course racism has nothing to do with the Truth of COVID&#x27;s origins. Im was just always perplexed how the lab leak ended up spun as more &quot;racist&quot; than the wet lab one.
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fgna4 个月前
Was thinking this would be due to the inauguration or decree spree, however the analysis was started under the biden administration
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calibas3 个月前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;EcoHealth_Alliance#Project_DEFUSE" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;EcoHealth_Alliance#Project_DEF...</a>
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kryogen1c3 个月前
It&#x27;s wild to me that everyone is calling lab leak a politicized theory.<p>I suppose flat earthers make heliocentrism and the laws of physics politicized theories too, then.
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Glyptodon3 个月前
That said, &quot;lab leak&quot; still doesn&#x27;t mean &quot;virus built or engineered by humans for nefarious reasons.&quot;<p>I think the conversation about this has been repeatedly horrendous because it seems like people don&#x27;t really understand that there are lots of degrees between &quot;virus in research lab&quot; and &quot;genetically engineered bio-weapon.&quot; Though obviously there&#x27;s more embarrassment and culpability on China&#x27;s side (by most standards) with a poorly controlled lab situation than some rando, basically serf by implication, selling bush meat at a bazaar.
Dig1t3 个月前
It’s not just the CIA<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;oversight.house.gov&#x2F;release&#x2F;final-report-covid-select-concludes-2-year-investigation-issues-500-page-final-report-on-lessons-learned-and-the-path-forward&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;oversight.house.gov&#x2F;release&#x2F;final-report-covid-selec...</a><p>The house oversight committee investigated for 2 years and came to this conclusion. The CIA is falling in line with the rest of the government.<p>&gt;The single most thorough review of the pandemic conducted to date<p>&gt;The FIVE strongest arguments in favor of the “lab leak” theory include:<p>&gt;The virus possesses a biological characteristic that is not found in nature.<p>&gt;Data shows that all COVID-19 cases stem from a single introduction into humans. This runs contrary to previous pandemics where there were multiple spillover events.<p>&gt;Wuhan is home to China’s foremost SARS research lab, which has a history of conducting gain-of-function research at inadequate biosafety levels.<p>&gt;Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) researchers were sick with a COVID-like virus in the fall of 2019, months before COVID-19 was discovered at the wet market.<p>&gt;By nearly all measures of science, if there was evidence of a natural origin it would have already surfaced.
Fomite3 个月前
Side note: The CIA can publish this, but the CDC can&#x27;t put out the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Because that&#x27;s where we are.
foobarbecue3 个月前
One thing I&#x27;ve always wondered is: how many labs are there in the world doing gain-of-function research on coronavirus, as the Wuhan Instutute of Virology was?<p>Intuitively, it seems to me like there aren&#x27;t that many, so it&#x27;s a pretty interesting coincidence that the virus started right next to such a lab.<p>However, if coronavirus labs are common, then it&#x27;s not an coincidence. Can anyone point to research that answers this question?<p>From a political and public safety standpoint, I think the US government and WHO probably felt they had a moral obligation not to point the finger at China during the height of the pandemic. And now we have the opposite -- a cult of hate has taken over the US government, and they have much to gain by preaching hate against China (Trump was in power in 2019, but he only had presidential powers. Now he has absolute power.). So, in either case, it&#x27;s quite hard to get undistorted information.
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Fomite3 个月前
My present take: As an infectious disease epidemiologist whose expertise lies in the dynamics of infections a week or so after an initial spillover event, I am <i>much</i> more cautious with my opinions on the lab leak hypothesis than a lot of people who took a single biology class as a distribution requirement in undergrad.
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knorker3 个月前
Obviously I don&#x27;t know either way. But remember when saying &quot;lab leak&quot; god you banned from social media?<p>I don&#x27;t think anybody ever explained why exactly it was &quot;racist&quot; to think that labs can leak in China just like has happened many times all around the world, but wet market theory and the dangers of the Chinese food customs is &quot;not racist&quot;.<p>Does anybody know? There were many people online who more than went along with this. Why was it not the other way around?<p>Organisations I understand, they have whatever hidden motives. But normal people in the &quot;lab leak theory is racist&quot; mob, they never explained why it wasn&#x27;t &quot;wet market theory is racist&quot; instead.
WarOnPrivacy3 个月前
Perhaps reparations by China could be modeled after the reparations by the US, for the devastating 1918 Kansas&#x2F;USA flu.<p>Noting that the above statement honors the notion that flu ought to be named after the country of origin.
m348e9123 个月前
Curious if this lends credibility to the Indian research that was dismissed early 2020. The paper claimed the covid19 virus was man-made.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sundayguardianlive.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;fauci-described-indian-research-man-made-covid-outlandish" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sundayguardianlive.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;fauci-described-indian-r...</a><p>&quot;...Indian researchers wrote that the composition of the &#x27;inserts&#x27; in the Covid virus was similar to one found in HIV-1.&quot;
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shadowgovt3 个月前
I simply cannot use this as signal to update my priors on the theory given how politically charged this issue is and the new administration.<p>We cannot ignore the timing or the fact that the release appears to be the direct consequence of the previous director not believing the information he had passed the evidential bar and the new directory believing it does.<p>It&#x27;s new signal on the question, which is always nice-to-have, but I&#x27;ll be digesting it with a huge grain of salt given its pedigree.
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thrwyeyeacc3 个月前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;the-eye.eu&#x2F;public&#x2F;Random&#x2F;wuhan%20coronavirus&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;the-eye.eu&#x2F;public&#x2F;Random&#x2F;wuhan%20coronavirus&#x2F;</a><p>Just for the people who have forgotten what actually happened.<p>The Wuhan incident was very well documented, it&#x27;s just that nobody besides the eye kept a record of it and blindly trusted someone else to do it.<p>Take a look at the reports for yourself, don&#x27;t trust political bias.
whoitwas3 个月前
Hasn&#x27;t this always been the most likely cause? I thought practically all evidence pointed to that. I haven&#x27;t even heard a competing theory.
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macinjosh3 个月前
I don’t know why it isn’t obvious to everyone how this happened. The lab leak theory is true the outbreak started in force in the market where lab employees sold animals used for testing. They probably didn’t know the animals were infected. Earliest cases were among lab employees. Likely the ones who handled and sold these animals.
vcdimension3 个月前
rootclaim gave the lab leak theory an 87% probability using Bayesian analysis back in 2020: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.rootclaim.com&#x2F;analysis&#x2F;What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.rootclaim.com&#x2F;analysis&#x2F;What-is-the-source-of-COV...</a>
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andyjohnson03 个月前
I understand that this is based on an evaluation that started when Biden was president. But, given the timing and the weak confidence level, what&#x27;s the likelihood that this being made public is just the CIA signalling their alignment with the Trump administration?
jmull3 个月前
Does this matter?<p>This is the CIA, which will make any kind of claim, true or false, if it suits their aims.<p>Well, it does signal their aims.
jeffreyq3 个月前
Has anybody listened to this podcast episode? <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=5d-eqdRSx7Y&amp;t=1s" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=5d-eqdRSx7Y&amp;t=1s</a><p>Curious to have a discussion on this with anybody knowledgeable on the topic.
WillyWonkaJr3 个月前
I suspect that most people are so against the lab manufactured hypothesis because they&#x27;ve been infected by Covid, probably multiple times, and have decided to stop taking precautions. To accept that you&#x27;ve been infected with a bioweapon is a pretty upsetting prospect.
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th3o6a1d3 个月前
There are animal markets all over China. This isn’t just any market. It’s a market that happens to be near a virology lab that studies bat coronaviruses, which had been investigated for questionable safety practices by u.s. inspectors.
Beijinger3 个月前
It is close to my degree, and it was always the most likely explanation. I am not saying there was purpose, I am not saying there was gain of function, but the connection to the Wuhan lab was obvious.<p>Don&#x27;t suspect maliciousness if something can be explained by stupidity!<p>This was a likely source: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC8490156&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC8490156&#x2F;</a><p>There was a Chinese master thesis found on the web about this incident that was translated. I can&#x27;t find any sources now anymore. Maybe it was this one: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.independentsciencenews.org&#x2F;health&#x2F;a-chinese-phd-thesis-sheds-important-new-light-on-the-origin-of-the-covid-19-coronavirus&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.independentsciencenews.org&#x2F;health&#x2F;a-chinese-phd-...</a><p>Nope. This one: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.slideshare.net&#x2F;slideshow&#x2F;masters-thesis-analysisofsixpatientswithunknownviruses2&#x2F;243430501" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.slideshare.net&#x2F;slideshow&#x2F;masters-thesis-analysis...</a><p>There is even a girl that worked in the Wuhan lab and has likely died from this Virus. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pressreader.com&#x2F;uk&#x2F;the-mail-on-sunday&#x2F;20210117&#x2F;281651077754920" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pressreader.com&#x2F;uk&#x2F;the-mail-on-sunday&#x2F;20210117&#x2F;2...</a>
mannyv3 个月前
No natural reservoir of covid has been found. Ergo it&#x27;s not natural.
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ic_fly23 个月前
CIA favours lab leak theory after a new head is picked. A person that has always been a vocal supporter of the lab leak theory.<p>No facts changed, just a Trump appointee starting work.
Havoc3 个月前
Announced days after new administration...what a coincidence!
ikrenji3 个月前
pro lab leak: 1, WIV being 10 miles from the outbreak area 2, WIV housing dozens if not hundreds of strains of coronaviruses 3, poor bio security &#x2F; laboratory technique amongst WIV staff 4, previous incidents of accidental leaks in Chinese labs<p>does it conclusively establish that the virus leaked from WIV? no. but i’d say it at least moderately probable…
ocschwar3 个月前
It&#x27;s not like we will ever have a chance to do a useful reassessment of what happened in Wuhan when everyone involved is scared of being designated the scapegoat and executed. And I do mean executed. If the CCP feels that it&#x27;s useful for the state to find someone there and give them a lethal injection, they&#x27;ll do it. So it&#x27;s ridiculous to expect any cooperation from anyone there.<p>And ultimately it doesn&#x27;t matter. If a contagious virus is coming to your country, your best response is independent of its origins. And if your response was a complete shitshow, finding a scapegoat in Wuhan won&#x27;t make your response any less of a shitshow.<p>The US&#x27;s response to covid under Trump was a ridiculous shitshow. Nothing more to it.
pharos923 个月前
Is it realistic to expect that the people who have surveillance across the whole planet don&#x27;t know the origins?
ehehe3 个月前
Congratulations US, you speedran all the way to Russia in 5 days.
steele3 个月前
Anything to deflect incompetent leadership, I guess
kats3 个月前
Can&#x27;t trust a word out of the New York Times.
djkivi3 个月前
&quot;We&#x27;ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.&quot; - William J. Casey, CIA Director (1981)<p>- <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;naacp.org&#x2F;articles&#x2F;spread-disinformation-and-how-we-respond" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;naacp.org&#x2F;articles&#x2F;spread-disinformation-and-how-we-...</a>
ychan2683 个月前
I mean which country benefited from COVID? China controlled the virus first then lost a lot from strict lockdown, western had many death cases not to mention developing countries. If some Bie Inc made COVID, I don&#x27;t think they have the courage to piss all governments.
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tim3333 个月前
It&#x27;s funny how everyone&#x27;s opinions have changed now Trump is in power. It just shows how much of what people say is to advance their own interests rather than to say the truth.<p>Personally I&#x27;d guess it was almost certainly a lab leak doing research similar proposed by Ralph Baric (the world&#x27;s leading researcher on this stuff) as described in his testimony to a congressional committee. His work was proposed for US funding and didn&#x27;t get it but probably the Chinese conducted much the same research themselves and the research pretty much is to make covid for research purposes. One of the viruses he mentions interest in has an insert amino acid identical to covid.<p>Re. what the sensible authorities at the time have to say I give you the head of the CDC at the time and the chair of the Lancet covid enquiry:<p>CDC Redfield: &quot;[The US] contributed to the research that led to it and that&#x27;s to say is that the US government was very involved in funding the Chinese lab that did this research...&quot; <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=oMlhvnMpRU0&amp;t=119s" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=oMlhvnMpRU0&amp;t=119s</a><p>Lancet, Sachs: &quot;Where do you think Covid came from&quot;.. &quot;Covid um the question is which lab and in which way. It almost surely did not come out of nature uh it almost surely came out of uh a deliberate research project ...&quot; <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=JS-3QssVPeg&amp;t=6493s" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=JS-3QssVPeg&amp;t=6493s</a><p>Also amusingly on of the scientists most active in implying anyone suggesting a lab leak was a crank or conspiracy theorist at the time of the outbreak was Kristin Anderson. Later his slack chats were subpoenaed and he was saying in them “The main thing still in my mind is that the lab escape version of this is so friggin’ likely to have happened because they were already doing this type of work and the molecular data is fully consistent with that scenario.” He then got a $7m grant from Fauci totally unrelated to saying the research Fauci funded couldn&#x27;t have been the problem.
gizajob3 个月前
ITT: CCP shills.
dist-epoch3 个月前
The virology research in Wuhan was done with US money and US experties (Ralph Baric, ...).<p>The US has absolutely no interest in prooving that the virus leaked from there.
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JohnnyLarue3 个月前
And there&#x27;s absolutely no geopolitical reason for the unassailably truthful three-letter terrorist organization to announce this whatsoever.
pathikrit3 个月前
My favorite conspiracy theory:<p>After Tiananmen, the CCP planned many contingents next time something similar happened.<p>Cue, the [2019 Hong Kong Democracy Protests][1]. The MSS releases Covid19 at the peak of the protests (actually they do pick Wuhan so they can use lab leak as a plausibility if needed) in Sep 2019 and later they use the lockdown laws to completely clamp down the protests.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;2019%E2%80%932020_Hong_Kong_protests" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;2019%E2%80%932020_Hong_Kong_pr...</a>
ajsnigrutin3 个月前
Wasn&#x27;t this one of those &quot;forbidden&quot; conspiracy theories, censored from most social media, while most people (here too) cheered for &quot;fighting misinformation&quot; with censorship?
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squarefoot3 个月前
The new CIA director speaking about this sensitive subject with no less than Breitbart explains everything.
badgersnake3 个月前
Because Trump told them to.
andy_ppp3 个月前
We can conclude nothing, except that humans do stupid stuff and usually conspiracy theories are incorrect. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.<p>Do we actually know if NIH was doing gain of function research (on Corona viruses) in the Wuhan lab? It sounds like another right wing conspiracy theory but if people have high quality sources for this being true I’ll happily change my mind.
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willmadden3 个月前
The furin cleavage site in the virus was synthetic. The peak prosperity guy blew the lid off of this in early 2020. I guess that was a &quot;conspiracy theory&quot; though?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;peakprosperity.com&#x2F;more-evidence-covid-19-may-not-be-natural&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;peakprosperity.com&#x2F;more-evidence-covid-19-may-not-be...</a>
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rdm_blackhole3 个月前
I think this is unfortunately a vindication for the conspiracy theorists and a massive failure for all the journalists&#x2F;TV show hosts of the mainstream media who openly mocked&#x2F;refused to investigate this possibility back 2020.<p>The trust in the media was already low before this and I can&#x27;t imagine that this news will make things better.
nxm3 个月前
But the fact checkers back in 2021 labeled the lab leak theory as false&#x2F;misinformation. Meanwhile anyone who suggested it was labeled a conspiracy theory by the main stream media.
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etc-hosts3 个月前
not this again
stvswn3 个月前
It&#x27;s pretty wild to me that a good portion of commenters here seem to think that only one side can politicize Covid&#x27;s origins when the cited article itself says that the conclusion predates the new administration.<p>The natural origin bitter-clingers are still citing papers that claim to lean towards natural origin with the thinnest possible evidence. I admit I&#x27;m not a virologist, but I am a bit skeptical that this community would be completely forthright with us.<p>I can&#x27;t shake the feeling like there might be fire where there&#x27;s smoke: the Chinese government has not provided access to the WIV&#x27;s data, for instance. The Chinese government deleted the virus&#x27;s genome sequence from GenBank before later releasing it publicly. The closest relative to Covid-19 in known databases is RatG13, a virus from bats that was discovered in caves thousands of miles away, a complex that the researchers at WIV had used to collect samples. Peter Dasnak of EcoHealth alliance had previously submitted a plan to the DoD to introduce furin cleavage sites to existing coronaviruses to do gain-of-function research (or some euphemism for GOF to evade restrictions), a proposal that was declined, but within which there are still comments extant where they discuss outsourcing the riskiest research to China. Peter Dasnak led the delegation from WHO to China but never publicly disclosed that he had, only several years earlier, been interested in research that would have produced a virus that very specifically resembled Covid. A small group of influential scientists and bureaucrats were discussing via email that it certainly appeared to be a lab leak to them until they met in person to speak with Dr. Fauci in February 2020, after which they abruptly stopped discussing the possibility of lab-leak and worked to submit the Proximal Origin letter to Nature that claimed a consensus among scientists that it must be natural origin -- based on the airtight logic that if a lab wanted to make a coronavirus it probably would have done it differently. Those authors did not disclose the influence of Peter Dasnak and Dr Fauci in drafting the letter. Subsequently, the US government used the existence of the letter as authoritative evidence of a natural origin in order to lean on social media companies to censor speech about the potential of a lab leak. Meanwhile, the fact remains that in order for Covid to have made a jump from an animal species, it would have to be extant in the population of an animal species -- or a variant clearly one mutation away would need to be. It&#x27;s been 5 years and we haven&#x27;t found an animal with Covid.<p>Of course we&#x27;ll never get the smoking gun because the data you&#x27;d need -- the experimental data from WIV -- is likely gone forever. Why would that be? Why wouldn&#x27;t a leading research center on coronavirus virology -- perhaps the foremost in the world -- hide its records when the big event that represents its entire reason for existence -- a coronovirus pandemic -- has shown up in the world, conveniently on its doorstep? Shouldn&#x27;t that be their time to shine? Are you going to blame that on Trump&#x27;s rhetoric? Why hasn&#x27;t all of Baric&#x27;s data from UNC been released to the public yet, then?<p>It is really pretty amazing to me that many people will likely go to their grave thinking &quot;oh, no, no scientists released a paper that says the natural origin is still a live theory, I don&#x27;t have to listen to any of this conspiracy nonsense&quot; simply because they can&#x27;t live in a world where Trump was right.
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randm_sequence3 个月前
For anyone who believes that the pandemic was a &quot;natural zoonotic spillover,&quot; please read the following sections of the DEFUSE proposal, highlight copied below:<p>&quot;Synthesis of Chimeric NovelSARS-CoVQS: We will commercially synthesize SARSr- Cov glycoprotein genes, designed for insertion into SHCO14 or WIV16 molecular clone backbones (88% and 97% S-protein identity to epidemic SARS-Urbani. These are BSL-3, not select agents or subject to P3CO (they use bat SARS-CoV backbones which are exempt) and are pathogenic to hACE2 transgenic mice. Different backbone strains increase recovery of viable:viruses identification of barriers for RNA recombination-mediated gene transfer between strains™. Recombinant viruses will be recovered in Vero cels, or in mouse cells over-expressing human, bat or civet ACE2 receptors to support cultivation ofviruses with a weaker RBD-human ACE2 interface. &quot;<p>In vitro testing of chimeric viruses: All chimeric viruses will be sequence verified and evaluated for. i) ACE2 receptor usage across species in vitro, ii) growth in primary HAE, iii) sensitivity to broadly cross neutralizing human monoclonal antibodies that recognize unique epitopes in the RBD. Should some isolates prove highly resistant to our mAB panel we will evaluate cross neutalzation against a cited number of human SARS-CoV serum samples from the Toronto outbreak. Chimeric viruses that encode novel genes with slower potential will be used to identify SARSr-CoV strains for recovery as full genome length viable viruses.<p>In vivo pathogenesis: Groups of 10 animals will be infected intranasally with 1.0 x 106 PFU of each vSARSr-CoV, clinical signs (weight loss, respiratory function, mortality, et) followed for 6 days...&quot;<p>S2 Proteolytic Cleavage and Glycosylation Sites: ... We will analyze all SARS-CoV S gene sequences for appropriately conserved proteolytic cleavage sites in S2 and for the presence of potential furin cleavage sites&quot;.... Where clear mismatches occur, WE WILL INTRODUCE APPROPRIATE HUMAN SPECIF CLEAVAGE SITES AND EVALUATE GROWTH POTENTIAL IN VERO CELL AND HAE CULTURES.&quot;<p>I apologize as the copy and paste from a PDF is not ideal. If anyone ever wanted a smoking gun, this is it. The WIV proposed to build SARS-COV2 in 2018&#x2F;2019. The key point is that when someone proposes this type of research, they often have already done the work and the funding will be used to generate the next result needed for future funding.<p>Also, one item that the world conveniently forgot was that half of the specialists in this field believed passionately that the only way to prevent the next Pandemic was to create super viruses in the lab (this is in the public record). Given the extensive history of lab leaks and suspected lab leaks, this path is absolute and complete hubris and folly. The same folks who were pushing this agenda (and the DEFUSE proposal is filled with little notes as to how certain rules could be skirted) were the folks who immediately claimed that it was absolutely impossible for this to be a lab leak.<p>This proposal was shopped to a number of different US agencies in 2019. This means that there were likely dozens of individuals in multiple agencies who reviewed this proposal and said absolutely nothing when the pandemic broke.
ribcage3 个月前
Mankind for some reason is blind. Doing CTRL F for the magic word in this Hacker News thread yields no results. There was a political conflict amongst Chinese people which had it&#x27;s peak at the moment the virus appeared. If not for the virus, that conflict would have ruined China&#x27;s image for decades and centuries to come.
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arghandugh3 个月前
There is no evidence or plausible scenario to support this, but it’s an incredibly useful story for the incoming regime to promote for the purposes of hampering consensus reality.<p>It also gives conspiracy theorists and low-trust communities a bone to chew on, since UFO hysterias are proving to have an increasingly short shelf life.
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sumek833 个月前
and the people that believe it tend to be also very happy to be exposed to biological weapons running wild
seaourfreed3 个月前
From xAI: Gina Haspel (Director of the CIA) who was the, allegedly authorized bonuses for six CIA officers to change their assessment from a lab leak to a non-lab source for the origin of COVID-19.<p>Sources documenting this: National Review, New York Post &amp; Daily Express US.<p>US government lies, and then calls &quot;misinformation&quot; on people who call out the truth. Now they are being held accountable to go back to the truth. Which is why the CIA is now switching 180-degrees from a Lie to the truth (non-Lab to Lab).
cyanydeez3 个月前
Does thw presodent get classifief EOs caise, thays thos
aithrowawaycomm3 个月前
Pretty safe to say this is a politicized nothingburger:<p><pre><code> The announcement of the shift came shortly after Mr. Ratcliffe told Breitbart News he no longer wanted the agency “on the sidelines” of the debate over the origins of the Covid pandemic. Mr. Ratcliffe has long said he believes that the virus most likely emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.... Another senior U.S. official said it was Mr. Ratcliffe’s decision to declassify and release the new analysis. There is no new intelligence behind the agency’s shift. Rather it is based on the same evidence it has been chewing over for months..... To boost the natural origins theory, intelligence officers would like to find the animal that passed it to a human or find a bat carrying what was the likely ancestor of the coronavirus that causes Covid. Similarly, to seal the lab leak, the intelligence community would like to find evidence that one of the labs in Wuhan was working on a progenitor virus that directly led to the epidemic. Neither piece of evidence has been found.</code></pre>
rhansgrt3 个月前
Fauci has been preemptively pardoned for gain of function research (lying or funding), so the bureaucrats can now pander to Trump. Anyway, we have always been at war with Oceania and China is now our enemy! Next week the NYT will use the term &quot;Wuhan Virus&quot;.<p>This is the first US presidential change of power I&#x27;m following consciously. Have there always been such abrupt 180° turns and pledges of loyalty as now? I feel like I&#x27;m watching The Godfather.
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jmyeet3 个月前
It&#x27;s crazy for a Trump loyalist to complain about &quot;politicization&quot; of this process when declassifying and releasing a report with no hard or new evidence is quite clearly a political decision.<p>The US is clearly setting up China to be the next Big Enemy, the USSR 2.0. The US establishment expects--and arguably is fomenting--economic and possibly eventual military conflict with China. The &quot;lab leak&quot; declassification neatly fits into that narrative.<p>We may never know the truth or it may take decades to find out.<p>There&#x27;s really only two likely theories here: zoonotic origin and lab leak. There are many variants of &quot;lab leak&quot; but the most likely is that it was accidental. It&#x27;s more fringe to claim it was intentional. This sort of thing has happened before [1].<p>There is circumstancial data for this like China not cooperating with a WHO investigation back in 2020 and 2021 and a Wuhan Institute of Virology virus database in SEptember 2019. To my knowledge, that has never been recovered or examinted by external parties. My theory is, like every government (including the US), China doesn&#x27;t want to know the answer to this question. There&#x27;s literally no upside. Would you want to be the official who oversaw a leak like this? Would you want to be in charge of the government at that time? Nobody wants that. Governments love ignorance.<p>The zoonotic origin is still more likely but it has the obvious problem that we haven&#x27;t (yet) identified the host animal. Also, Wuhan is quite far from the bats that might be the likely source.<p>It might be a complicated origin, such as a person or animal being infected with multiple strains and a replication error creating the virus from multiple sources.<p>But the main point here is we&#x27;re going to see a lot of anti-China sentiment being drummed up by the US in coming years. This is bipartisan too.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...</a>
p0w3n3d3 个月前
I have some opinion on this: despite whatever was the source, the reaction that was made by countries (i.e. complete global lockdown of population) means that they were scared as hell. And I haven&#x27;t seen any govt scared so much on any flu that came out in my life, however some of them were baddest in my life (not mathematically speaking, I know that every set has a supreme element, what I mean that flu can be dangerous to people incl me, with asthma)<p>Based on their reaction we may know that they either knew something very bad (i.e. failed experiment) or were suspecting something so bad that could, at least in their theory, kill the population or massively decrease it.<p>In other words something was fishy and they overreacted.
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