The reality is that there will never be a formal secession, but what I do see is a gradual fracturing and separation of the states.<p>Trump has mentioned deleting FEMA and letting states fend for themselves. And if the US government is going to play politics about where state tax dollars go and why, I don't see a reason why states should continue funneling money into something that gives them no benefits.<p>So instead individual states would likely make deals with other countries. Theoretically you 'need' congressional approval, but in an extreme low trust environment the states are just going to do whatever. The feds won't risk a civil war or put boots on the ground because that would immediately signal that the US is near the end of its life.<p>And I think at this point it's really a matter of when, not if. There'll be some decision made by the supreme court or the federal government that will be the breaking decision.