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AMOC shutdown likely within the next 20-30 years

69 点作者 mfld3 个月前

7 条评论

alluro23 个月前
I feel that it&#x27;s kind of obvious by now that we, as humanity (ofc, in most cases passively), have resigned to not do anything big to prevent negative impact of climate change.<p>Which means several meters of rising sea level, loss of ecosystems etc. The timescale for these consequences is now (as opposed to 20-30 years ago) fairly close, in 20, 30, 50 years, so it seems significantly more inevitable and imminent. In my country (SE Europe), a hot summer day 20 years ago was 30 C. Now it&#x27;s regularly 38-39 for days on end, some going to 40. I don&#x27;t expect it to be 50 in another 20 years, but is it unreasonable to think so? Who would have thought 40 is expectable before?<p>Given the (even relatively) mild example we&#x27;ve had with Covid, of cascading supply chain issues and strained economies, I wonder what people think will happen when we start losing coastal cities, some of the big ports, crops, potable water etc, all combined, in different places in the world at once...Do we think that we&#x27;ll somehow adapt quickly, overcome, is there a plan, or is it just a &quot;future someone&#x27;s&quot; problem?
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daedrdev3 个月前
Reading the abstract it seems to support the idea of geoengineering if half the excess warming magnitude was from stopping ships Aerosolization of particles
netsharc3 个月前
Curious that you&#x27;re picking 1 aspect of the dire prediction of this climate scientist, which contains more things than just the AMOC. The &quot;digested by journalists&quot; summary of that paper: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;environment&#x2F;2025&#x2F;feb&#x2F;04&#x2F;climate-change-target-of-2c-is-dead-says-renowned-climate-scientist" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;environment&#x2F;2025&#x2F;feb&#x2F;04&#x2F;climate-...</a><p>It also mentions some scientists who doubt the conclusion, that the 2 degree target is dead. As a doom-and-gloomer I&#x27;ll buy what James Hansen is saying though, IMO the scientists are underestimating how quickly it&#x27;ll get worse.
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hindsightbias3 个月前
James Burke explains it to you 36 years ago:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=451xJqNGFqU&amp;t=6150s" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=451xJqNGFqU&amp;t=6150s</a>
rufus_foreman3 个月前
Related:<p>&quot;Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s&quot;, <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;s41467-024-55297-5" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;s41467-024-55297-5</a><p>&quot;Florida Current transport observations reveal four decades of steady state&quot;, <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;s41467-024-51879-5" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;s41467-024-51879-5</a>
1970-01-013 个月前
It&#x27;s probably less than this due to recent political reversals.<p>I think fusion is our last and only real chance at this point. Everything else is stuck in a political hellscape.
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blain3 个月前
For those like me that don&#x27;t know what AMOC is [1]:<p>&gt; The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the main ocean current system in the Atlantic Ocean. It is a component of Earth&#x27;s ocean circulation system and plays an important role in the climate system. The AMOC includes Atlantic currents at the surface and at great depths that are driven by changes in weather, temperature and salinity. Those currents comprise half of the global thermohaline circulation that includes the flow of major ocean currents, the other half being the Southern Ocean overturning circulation.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...</a>
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