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The odds of a city-killer asteroid impact in 2032 keep rising

9 点作者 helloworld3 个月前

4 条评论

avidiax3 个月前
I heard that it's somewhat normal for the probably to rise before dropping to zero. This makes mathematical sense, since decreasing the size of the probable zone makes the earth a larger part of that zone until the zone fully excludes the earth.
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gnabgib3 个月前
Not any more it&#x27;s at 0.28% <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blogs.nasa.gov&#x2F;planetarydefense&#x2F;2025&#x2F;02&#x2F;20&#x2F;additional-observations-continue-to-reduce-chance-of-asteroid-impact-in-2032&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blogs.nasa.gov&#x2F;planetarydefense&#x2F;2025&#x2F;02&#x2F;20&#x2F;additiona...</a><p><i>NASA Downgrades the Risk of 2024 YR4 to Below 1%</i> (45 points, 11 hours ago, 54 comments) <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=43148259">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=43148259</a>
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peatmoss3 个月前
The current odds (0.28% as gnabgid@ cites) are still uncomfortable. But also, most of the Earth&#x27;s surface isn&#x27;t a city, so maybe we should be even less worried.<p>But on the other hand, I do wonder if a city-killer blast in the wrong spot could trigger some kind of nuclear response in a jumpy geopolitical climate. I keep thinking about the time the USSR caught some weird atmospheric effect and nearly launched, save for the skepticism of a lone individual who chose to break with protocol...
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fred_is_fred3 个月前
I am curious how to map the calculation onto a human impact number. 0.28% chance to hit the entire planet, most of which would have limited impact on humanity. What are the odds for example that this kills 1000 people?
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