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Understanding Solar Energy

261 点作者 chmaynard大约 2 个月前

20 条评论

bryanlarsen大约 2 个月前
Great article. Unfortunately his California duck curve graph only shows 2023. A graph including 2024 shows how batteries are dramatically flattening the duck curve:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cdn-ilcjnih.nitrocdn.com&#x2F;BVTDJPZTUnfCKRkDQJDEvQcUwtACMroC&#x2F;assets&#x2F;images&#x2F;optimized&#x2F;rev-7227a3a&#x2F;reneweconomy.com.au&#x2F;wp-content&#x2F;uploads&#x2F;2024&#x2F;05&#x2F;california-gas-903x500.jpg" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cdn-ilcjnih.nitrocdn.com&#x2F;BVTDJPZTUnfCKRkDQJDEvQcUwtA...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;reneweconomy.com.au&#x2F;battery-storage-is-dramatically-reshaping-the-california-grid-and-finally-moving-it-away-from-gas&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;reneweconomy.com.au&#x2F;battery-storage-is-dramatically-...</a>
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doctoboggan大约 2 个月前
The company I work for (as a data engineer) does utility scale solar + battery installation and site management. We recently finished a large scale installation just outside of Las Vegas (by some measures the largest in the US). It was backed by a PE firm. Costs are getting so low, the tech so predictable, and with battery warranties around 20 years the PE firm is able to get pretty high return with a fairly low risk. They enter into a &quot;power purchase agreement&quot; with the utility so they know how much they will be able to sell the power for, and as long as we collect data on the batteries they will be able to be warrantied if there is an issue (but there rarely are issues).<p>The batteries are by far the most expensive portion of the setup. The solar by comparison is dirt cheap. We have single axis tracking like mentioned in the article. Every day we fully charge the batteries, and discharge them in the evening.
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GratiaTerra大约 2 个月前
Personal energy abundance and off grid independence is the good life and it means using all electric appliances and vehicles, heat pump and hot tub, powered by nonpolluting energy generation.<p>As the article alluded to, scale is important for this to work (although I get by fine using only thirty 400 watt panels (12kw) and this covers less than 30% of my roof).<p>As a remote worker, not commuting daily large distances is key to this system working. If I had to commute 60 miles every day I would need additional 10-15 panels to power the Ford Lightning EV truck, and if I was charging at night I would need six additional 100A 48v batteries.
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pfdietz大约 2 个月前
The bit how about incredibly quickly PV has grown is a figurative slap in the face to Vaclav Smil. He had just ten years earlier said PV wasn&#x27;t going to grow quickly because historically energy replacements took a long time.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;vaclavsmil.com&#x2F;wp-content&#x2F;uploads&#x2F;2024&#x2F;10&#x2F;scientificamerican0114-521.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;vaclavsmil.com&#x2F;wp-content&#x2F;uploads&#x2F;2024&#x2F;10&#x2F;scientific...</a><p>This retrospective on Smil&#x27;s predictions four years ago is notable:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.quora.com&#x2F;Is-Vaclav-Smil-right-in-his-criticisms-of-solar-energy" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.quora.com&#x2F;Is-Vaclav-Smil-right-in-his-criticisms...</a><p>&quot;To get 1 PWh&#x2F;year of electricity you need to install about 450 GW worth of solar panels. You need dozens of years to acomplish such task. Reality check: 3 years in current speed, in the future probably faster.&quot;<p>Indeed, as the thread top link shows in 2024 the world installed 595 GW of PV.<p>As John Kenneth Galbraith said, &quot;If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.&quot;
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sanj大约 2 个月前
One thing I haven&#x27;t seen much coverage on is how to tap into the giant batteries we&#x27;re driving around in our electric vehicles. These are much bigger than what&#x27;s currently being deployed in houses.<p>The V2H standards are just now coming online: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;electrek.co&#x2F;2025&#x2F;02&#x2F;21&#x2F;nema-bidirectional-ev-charging-standard&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;electrek.co&#x2F;2025&#x2F;02&#x2F;21&#x2F;nema-bidirectional-ev-chargin...</a>
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Veedrac大约 2 个月前
The author misses a perhaps unintuitive point: the cost of storage depends also on the cost of energy. By the time you&#x27;ve overbuilt 2x, a full extra 100% of your demand is sitting around <i>literally free</i> at odd hours.<p>Traditionally, moving energy around means batteries, and yes maybe your battery costs more than just generating new electricity from a less efficient new solar panel at odd hours. But batteries are optimized for energy being expensive, where losses are wasteful.<p>Consider this really simple, dirt cheap alternative: plug your free energy into a pool of water and collect the hydrogen from it. Burn the hydrogen later, and point the light at your idle solar panels. It&#x27;s hellishly inefficient, but I repeat: the energy is free. You are only minimizing capital costs, at least until other people catch up and start shifting load some other way.<p>The sane point on this curve probably looks something along the lines of a mix of batteries and synthetic fuels powering existing fossil fuel plants. The nice thing about going all the way to synthetic fuels and not hydrogen is that long term storage becomes trivially cheap, so it starts offsetting your winter load as well.
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pjc50大约 2 个月前
Good longread.<p>What I&#x27;d like to have a better understanding of, and I&#x27;m hoping to crowdsource here, is exactly how the solar panel cost has come down so precipitously. Part of it is simply manufacture scaling - almost everything is much cheaper in large quantities. But part of it must be a thousand incremental tech advances. Things like the reduced kerf diamond wire saw.<p>Also of note: I think monocrystalline has won completely? People experimented with all sorts of alternate chemistries and technologies, like ion deposition and the extremely poisonous CIGS, but good old &quot;Czochralski process + slice thinly&quot; has won despite being energy intensive itself.<p>Perovskites remain an unknown quantity.
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CrzyLngPwd大约 2 个月前
I have been off-grid with a small solar generation system of 2.5kwh of solar and 3.6kwh of battery storage for a year.<p>I had to run a generator a number of times during the darker weeks, but now we have longer days. I don&#x27;t recall when I last ran it.<p>With solar, or any off-grid system, the number one thing that needs to change is you.<p>Switch stuff off, get energy efficient things, use power tools and charge their batteries when the sun is shining, use gas for hot water and cooking, and a log burner for heat (If I had my time again I would use a back boiler for water heating during the winter, and solar for water heating the rest of the time).<p>When I lived in a typical house, I averaged around 12.5kwh per day. Now, it&#x27;s around 2.5kwh per day.
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danans大约 2 个月前
&gt; Therefore, they believe, we should deemphasize solar in favor of “firm” sources of energy like gas turbines, next-generation nuclear or advanced geothermal.<p>One cool thing about advanced geothermal is that it can load follow solar like natural gas does today: ramp down when solar is abundant and ramp up when it is not. That could come from slowing the turbines, or even by storing the extracted heat (in molten salt) during peak solar hours and using it to turn the turbines to meet peak demand or overnight.<p>They are in many ways a great complement for each other.
losvedir大约 2 个月前
This is a great summary of the situation. I&#x27;ve been thinking about installing solar panels on my house, and been thinking about these same sorts of issues. Unfortunately, for my situation here near Chicago, things are much worse than the author&#x27;s Atlanta: winter requires <i>tons</i> of energy here because it&#x27;s very cold, and we have even less sun then.<p>It&#x27;s one of the things that makes me think about wanting to move to Texas or Phoenix or something. Ample year round sun, and the big energy expense: climate control, corresponds much better to when you have it (you need to &quot;cool&quot; in the summer and the day). It rubs me the wrong way that here, our big energy cost is heating in the winter. It doesn&#x27;t fit well with the utopian solar future I&#x27;m envisioning.
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Ringz大约 2 个月前
The great (!) article misses the holy grail of the Energiewende in the chapter „Addressing the challenges of solar intermittency“: a intercontinental smart grid. As shown by data of ENTSO-E in Europe a power system plays a crucial part to overcome intermittency problems of renewables.
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1970-01-01大约 2 个月前
I mentioned this yesterday, but storage is the new holy grail for cheap energy. If humans could focus on building safe and reliable battery tech instead of AI and bitcoin, we will have solved the energy crisis until fusion is ready.
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ZeroGravitas大约 2 个月前
There seems to be a real cultural obsession with going off grid, that this article reflects.<p>It&#x27;s therefore confusing if they&#x27;re talking about a nation&#x2F;state or a household.<p>For a household, assuming you don&#x27;t want to disconnect from the grid, the calculation is about how to offset as much of your energy costs you can displace with solar, and how to shift cheap energy from overnight with batteries as well as time shift solar generstion. A different and in many ways more interesting question in the abstract while also more practical too.
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thelastgallon大约 2 个月前
The duck curve can be easily flattened by using vertical panels which extend the production of solar a few hours in each direction. Vertical panels take no space (think every fence; or on farmland with enough space for big machinery to move), better performance (because heat isn&#x27;t trapped), panels are always clean (daily gust of wind takes care of it). I&#x27;m sure there are many HN discussions on vertical panels.
buckle8017大约 2 个月前
There&#x27;s really no such thing as the California grid from a reliability stand point.<p>California is on the western interconnect, which is organized by wecc.<p>The power on the western interconnect is more like 20% wind&#x2F;solar.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;wecc-spdp-weccgeo.hub.arcgis.com&#x2F;pages&#x2F;power-generation" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;wecc-spdp-weccgeo.hub.arcgis.com&#x2F;pages&#x2F;power-generat...</a>
tigroferoce大约 2 个月前
Great article. I&#x27;d be interested with something similar for industrial and public transit cases.<p>I totally get that it&#x27;s feasible to run a common household with 100% solar+batteries, but I&#x27;m less convinced a train or an hospital can be run during a winter evening with solar+batteries alone. Let alone one of those new fancy AI datacenter.
asdf333大约 2 个月前
other way to deal with intermittency is to dynamically price electricity. then people can shut off&#x2F;on usage in response. many activities do not need to be done exactly at a certain time.<p>it doesn’t all need to be fixed on the supply side
dzonga大约 2 个月前
solar is nice for residential. you will still need gas for cooking + water heating. ohh yeah plus transportation i.e hybrid for long distance travellers or pure electric for city travellers.<p>anything else i.e industrial both heavy &amp; light manufacturing nothing beats hydrocarbons
kragen大约 2 个月前
This article is good overall, and the map of solar capacity factor by US state is especially good, but it does have some flaws.<p>First, and most trivially, Potter&#x27;s plot of PV module prices overstates their cost by a factor of about three to five. His last data point is US$0.31 per (peak) watt in 02023. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.solarserver.de&#x2F;photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preisindex&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.solarserver.de&#x2F;photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preis...</a> shows a price of 0.26€ per peak watt in June 02023 for &quot;mainstream&quot; solar panels, which is in reasonably good agreement. But &quot;low cost&quot; panels were only €0.16&#x2F;Wp, and since then prices have dropped by more than half, to €0.110&#x2F;Wp for mainstream panels and €0.070&#x2F;Wp for low-cost. (A footnote misstates this cost as $36 per megawatt, which would be $0.000036&#x2F;W.)<p>Prices in the US are of course much higher, but that&#x27;s due to inefficient regulatory interference in the market to protect uncompetitive and environmentally destructive fossil-fuel interests.<p>Another weak point is that the article doesn&#x27;t consider thermal energy storage systems, neither sensible heat energy storage systems like a hot water heater or a sand battery, nor phase-change energy storage like the ice chillers used for decades in many office buildings and the MIT Solar I house built in 01939†, nor TCES systems using desiccants such as muriate of lime, carnallite, or tachyhydrite. Sensible heat energy storage has been a crucial part of domestic climate control for millennia, for example in the form of adobe, and can time-shift your entire HVAC energy load to hours when your solar panels are producing. The newer systems may be able to do the same at a lower cost and are certainly easier to retrofit into existing construction. This will dramatically drop the storage requirements for things like his example house, though it will not help with transportation and much industrial energy consumption.<p>Maybe its most glaring weak point, though, is that it compares costs in the US and Europe, but entirely ignores China, where the vast majority of new power plants are being built, where the majority of world coal consumption happens, and where the overwhelming majority of photovoltaic panels are made. (India and the Middle East are also ignored and may turn out to be very important, but at present their potential is largely unrealized.) Writing an article about understanding solar energy this year without talking about China is like writing an article about understanding automobiles in 01940 without talking about the US. You can probably find a magazine article from 01940 that does that, but probably only in French.<p>______<p>† You could argue that the qanat represents a form of ancient Zarathustran phase-change energy storage that is much older than MIT Solar I, but I think that only applies if your buildings are responsible for condensing the water to fill the qanat.
rixed大约 2 个月前
There is also a risk factor to be considered before we decide to add massive energy storage within residential area. I&#x27;ve hear that one of the reason why the recent wildfires in LA had been so devastating was because the amount of available energy to fuel the fire (tanks, batteries) around modern homes is much larger than in the past.
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