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Hyperinflation Heralded the Fall of German Democracy (2023)

51 点作者 joebig大约 1 个月前

10 条评论

arcticbull大约 1 个月前
Hyperinflation is not 6% inflation, it&#x27;s not even &quot;inflation but bigger.&quot;<p>Hyperinflation is better thought of as the rejection of a currency by the people, and it has historically always been associated with extreme exogenous factors like foreign-currency denominated debt, with war, civil war or rampant corruption.<p>The Weimar Republic had foreign-currency denominated debt, which famously you cannot satisfy with printing more domestic currency.<p>[edit] Here&#x27;s a good write-up that aligns with my take.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pragcap.com&#x2F;hyperinflation-its-more-than-just-a-monetary-phenomenon&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pragcap.com&#x2F;hyperinflation-its-more-than-just-a-...</a>
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loganfrederick大约 1 个月前
A great book on this subject but I didn&#x27;t see cited in the article is &quot;When Money Dies&quot;: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;When-Money-Dies-Devaluation-Hyperinflation&#x2F;dp&#x2F;1586489941&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;When-Money-Dies-Devaluation-Hyperinfl...</a><p>Uses a mix of old economic stats paired with German citizens journals and public newspapers to tell the story of how hyperinflation in Germany started and then ended, but not before creating so much distrust in society that the seeds were sewn for the country to take a militaristic stance to fixing its problems. Highly recommend the book above.
submeta大约 1 个月前
I slowly start to believe that there are powers at play that want the world economy to tank. First seen during covid pandemic, halting all public life. Now with a US administration that does everything to tank world economy. Who these powers are, what their intentions are, I have no idea. But it is apparent that we can watch in slow motion how the desaster unfolds.
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klipklop大约 1 个月前
Correct me if I am wrong, but historically hyperinflation only happens when domestic production is destroyed due to a war or large scale civil unrest.<p>In Germany’s case much of their industrial capacity was destroyed or seized as reparations for WW1.<p>Trying to make parallels to the current situation in the US borders on the absurd.
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DrNosferatu大约 1 个月前
Careful that hyperinflation is significantly different from the mainstream story - Mark Blyth writes extensively about this.
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cyberax大约 1 个月前
&gt; Hyperinflation Heralded the Fall of German Democracy (2023)<p>No, it didn&#x27;t. It was a crushing _deflation_. Germany actually did generally fine during the inflation period, with some economic growth.<p>Deflation completely killed that.
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trompetenaccoun大约 1 个月前
The German love for authoritarianism did that. And WW1 Allies who bled the country dry with reparations as the article mentions. Which lead to desperation in the population and hatred for the establishment. You can see it play out in leading Nazi figures like Goebbels who was constantly broke, struggling to pay bills and ranted about financial enslavement of his people.<p>The excessive treatment made them see themselves as freedom fighters. Of course, that&#x27;s not what people are taught in school in Britain or France, it&#x27;s an inconvenient narrative.
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DrNosferatu大约 1 个月前
German fascism didn&#x27;t actually rise during the hyperinflation of 1922-1923. Hitler&#x27;s first attempt at power (the Beer Hall Putsch) failed miserably in November 1923 just as hyperinflation was ending[9].<p>The Nazis only became a major political force years later during the DEFLATIONARY period of 1930-1933. Heinrich Brüning&#x27;s government implemented brutal austerity in response to the Depression - slashing wages by 25%, quadrupling pension contributions, and cutting social spending by two-thirds[12]. This deflationary policy was economic malpractice that caused massive suffering.<p>Recent research confirms that &quot;localities that experienced larger declines in spending and higher rises in taxes had higher vote shares for the Nazi Party in each and every German federal election between 1930 and 1933&quot;[11]. Each standard deviation increase in austerity severity correlated with a 2-5 percentage point increase in Nazi votes[11].<p>The political establishment&#x27;s obsession with balancing budgets through austerity crushed the working and middle classes, creating mass unemployment (reaching 6 million by 1932)[9] and pushing desperate voters toward radical solutions. As Hjalmar Schacht warned in 1930: &quot;if the German people are going to starve, there are going to be many more Hitlers&quot;[11].<p>This history matters today. When elites respond to economic crisis with deflation and austerity that protects creditors while immiserating workers, they create the perfect conditions for fascism. The CEPR&#x27;s conclusion is chilling: &quot;too much harsh austerity can trigger social unrest and unintended political consequences&quot;[11].<p>Sources [1] Hyperinflation Weimar – AGI - American-German Institute <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;americangerman.institute&#x2F;2023&#x2F;12&#x2F;hyperinflation-weimar&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;americangerman.institute&#x2F;2023&#x2F;12&#x2F;hyperinflation-weim...</a> [2] Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic - Wikipedia <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_R...</a> [3] Hyperinflation - JohnDClare.net <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.johndclare.net&#x2F;Weimar_hyperinflation.htm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.johndclare.net&#x2F;Weimar_hyperinflation.htm</a> [4] Explain the effects of German hyperinflation? 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Wikipedia <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Interwar_period" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Interwar_period</a> [9] The Weimar Republic: How Did it Allow Hitler&#x27;s Rise to Power? <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thecollector.com&#x2F;weimar-republic-hitler-rise-to-power&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thecollector.com&#x2F;weimar-republic-hitler-rise-to-...</a> [10] 10000 years of economy - Hyperinflation in Germany <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.citeco.fr&#x2F;10000-years-history-economics&#x2F;industrial-revolutions&#x2F;hyperinflation-in-germany" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.citeco.fr&#x2F;10000-years-history-economics&#x2F;industri...</a> [11] Fiscal austerity and the rise of the Nazis - CEPR <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cepr.org&#x2F;voxeu&#x2F;columns&#x2F;fiscal-austerity-and-rise-nazis" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cepr.org&#x2F;voxeu&#x2F;columns&#x2F;fiscal-austerity-and-rise-naz...</a> [12] Divided they fell: the German left and the rise of Hitler <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;isj.org.uk&#x2F;divided-they-fell-the-german-left-and-the-rise-of-hitler&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;isj.org.uk&#x2F;divided-they-fell-the-german-left-and-the...</a> [13] Economy of Nazi Germany - Wikipedia <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Economy_of_Nazi_Germany" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Economy_of_Nazi_Germany</a> [14] [PDF] an assessment of german fascism as a mass movement in <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;open.metu.edu.tr&#x2F;bitstream&#x2F;handle&#x2F;11511&#x2F;99803&#x2F;Umut%20Devrim%20%C3%96zbideciler-Ph.D.%20Thesis.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;open.metu.edu.tr&#x2F;bitstream&#x2F;handle&#x2F;11511&#x2F;99803&#x2F;Umut%2...</a> [15] Hyperinflation and the invasion of the Ruhr - The Holocaust Explained <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theholocaustexplained.org&#x2F;the-nazi-rise-to-power&#x2F;the-weimar-republic&#x2F;invasion-of-the-ruhr&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theholocaustexplained.org&#x2F;the-nazi-rise-to-power...</a> [16] Commanding Heights : The German Hyperinflation, 1923 | on PBS <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pbs.org&#x2F;wgbh&#x2F;commandingheights&#x2F;shared&#x2F;minitext&#x2F;ess_germanhyperinflation.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pbs.org&#x2F;wgbh&#x2F;commandingheights&#x2F;shared&#x2F;minitext&#x2F;e...</a> [17] [PDF] Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic - 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panick21_大约 1 个月前
Honestly I think this article is ok, but it tries way, way to hard to explain 1933 based on this. The events of the Post-W1 are interesting enough without only evaluating it in context of 1933. And sure, they had something to do with 1933, but so did WW1 and many other things.<p>The reality that still many people don&#x27;t want to see is that the deal was actually not bad for German. Keynes as usually got it totally wrong. They could paid the reparations, other countries have done so in arguable worse situations. Germany was mostly untouched by WW1 (capital stock), they had significant industrial power and very good relations with the US. Massive amounts of investment went into the country, more then after WW2 and the Marshall Plan.<p>They always received far more money in foreign investment then they ever had to pay back, and then over multiple rounds, that debt was reduced and reduced and then eliminated. Mostly because US and British elites had no interest in actually enforcing anything. Essentially stabbing France in the back.<p>The route cause of all of this is really Wilson. Wilson refused to ally himself to Britain and France. He always was pro-German, or at very least saw them as one and the same. Then he fell right into the traps of the German, when the Germans came to him specifically, over heads of France and Britain, and ask for an armistice on lenient terms. And then the Germans could let Wilson do the work of forcing this deal onto Britain and France. Instead of insisting that armistice negotiations would only be held with all major nations together.<p>Henry Cabot Lodge and other in congress (and of course many others) believed pushing at least into the Ruhr was the minimum. Then you can negotiate from a real position of strength and you can continue to occupy the Ruhr with a multinational (US&#x2F;Belgium&#x2F;English&#x2F;French) force until Germany was clearly in line. And at the minimum they should destroyed German army leadership and split up all the large land holdings in the East of German. This would have actually benefited the SPD. But the SPD couldn&#x27;t really do it themselves. And this is not hing sight, many at the time understood this.<p>Then during the negotiations he continued to refused the US&#x2F;Britain&#x2F;French alliance that could have stabilized the world. He refused unilateral debt renegotiation with his allies. Both of these were done successfully after WW2.<p>He only cared about the flawed &#x27;League of Nations&#x27;. And the reason he actually wanted the &#x27;League of Nations&#x27; is because it would have overruled the constitution and would have given him power to go to war without congress. So if Serbia attacks Greece, the US could go to war with Serbia without congress approval. Wilson really hated congress (or anything else that prevented him from doing whatever he wanted).<p>But France simply refused to go along with the deal Wilson had in mind. Because France was not dumb enough to believe that &#x27;Collective Security&#x27; from the League would actually help them. This could only be overcome by Wilson basically caving in, and offering France the alliance it wanted. So the whole Treaty was concluded under what turned out to be false promises in the first place.<p>He then refused any attempt by congress to even minimally adjust the treaty, making it clear that the US would only go to war with an act of congress. Its often claimed that congress was full of hardcore isolationist but this simply isn&#x27;t the case. Many republicans were pro allies, and wanted the US to take a leadership position in global affairs. Very basic congressional politics could resulted into the US joining the League and having an alliance with France and Britain. Many republicans would have gone along with that.<p>The problem is, he was so hell bent on his (flawed) vision of Collective Security and Presidential power. He wasted time and nearly killed himself giving speeches and trying to convince the general population of his vision. And then he eventually opposed the treaty in congress anyway because it wasn&#x27;t exactly his, telling the democrats to vote against. This collapsed the complete security architecture of Europe and diplomatic fallout followed. Leading to a more isolationist mood in the US.<p>Germany saw the opportunity to do the same thing again, claiming they can&#x27;t pay, creating inflation, divided US&#x2F;French&#x2F;British and again using to US to force the others into line. The US pushed for debt restructuring for German debt on French and Britain. But its important to understand, there was no restructuring of the debt that Britain and France owned the US. So the US was very willing and aggressively pushed for Germany to pay less debt to other, but was unwilling to reduce the debt on its own allies. Wilson had completely refused any consideration that all of the this debt was connected. He wanted to use debt as a mechanism to keep France and Britain in line instead.<p>The Treaty of Versailles was full to the brim with inspirational stuff, like womans rights, labor rights, pretty much anybody that showed up with some concerns could get bunch of stuff into the Treaty. But it fundamentally lacked solutions for the things that actually mattered to the leadership of all the countries, European security and government debt.<p>The fundamental division between US&#x2F;France&#x2F;Britain essentially gave Germany the opportunity to completely reverse the Treaty of Versailles and facing no consequences.<p>So I think saying the hyperinflation is the cause of 1933 is fundamentally flawed, its more accurate to say that both the hyperinflation, the great depression and the return of German militarism were all because of a flawed peace making after WW1. And Wilson wanting the US to stand alone, &quot;city upon a hill&quot; and all the others are just equally unimportant sinners that could be dominated by him is a the root of the issue. He negotiated an armistice on bad terms, forced a bad treaty onto the other nations and then failed to actually stand behind his treaty. So at the end of his presidency, the complete Post-WW1 security architecture had already fundamentally collapsed and the Treaty of Versailles was mostly a dead letter.<p>This comment is long enough, but the Great Depression very much happened because of this same dynamic.<p>I recommend Adam Tooze on some of this (even if I don&#x27;t fully agree with him on some things). These talks he gave at Standford about the Post-WW1 treaties.<p>Making Peace in Europe 1917-1919: Brest-Litovsk and Versailles (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=EDlRKl3XGoM" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=EDlRKl3XGoM</a>)<p>Hegemony: Europe, America and the problem of financial reconstruction, 1916-1933 (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=9Alx_JDpQio" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=9Alx_JDpQio</a>)<p>And the book its based on: &quot;The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916-1931&quot;
lysace大约 1 个月前
I now honestly think Trump is a Russian asset. It&#x27;s the only way his actions makes any sense. It&#x27;s that or he&#x27;s insane. So guess the most charitable interpretation is: Russian asset.<p>I was his quiet champion up until about a month ago. So much crap to get rid off in the west. Still true.
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