(For those who only read titles: 60% is not the risk for recession of US Economy)<p>Recession for the US economy is virtually certain if these tariffs stay.<p>Trump folds easily when there is push back that makes him look bad. This makes me think that there is double digit percent change that Trump cancels or lowers tariffs significantly before they come into effect (and declares he won for no reason).<p>---<p>JPMorgan's analysts found that this week's announcement, on the heels of earlier tariff increases, raises the US average tax rate "by roughly 22%-pts to an estimated 24%," equivalent to roughly 2.4% of the total value of all goods and services produced within the country, or GDP.<p>"A hike of this size would be on par with the largest tax hike since WWII," the JPMorgan research note reads. Its effects could be magnified "through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions."