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The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

144 点作者 wilson090大约 1 个月前

11 条评论

01100011大约 1 个月前
Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch.<p>At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.
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ivape大约 1 个月前
Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don&#x27;t understand the bear case at all. I&#x27;m a nobody and I&#x27;m still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can&#x27;t do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can&#x27;t either. It feels like we&#x27;re over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I&#x27;m willing to meet him half-way with my faith here.<p>Edit:<p>- I wonder what&#x27;s stopping Nvida from releasing an AI phone<p>- A LLM competitor service (Hey, how about you guys make your own chips?)<p>- They are already releasing an AI PC<p>- Their own self driving cars<p>- Their own robots<p>If you mess with them, why won&#x27;t they just compete with you?<p>Just wanted to say one more thing, that Warren Buffet famously said he regretted not investing in both Google and Apple. I think something like this is happening again, especially as there are lulls that the mainstream public perceives, but enthusiasts don&#x27;t. To maintain the hyperbole, if you are not a full believer as a developer, then you are simply out of your mind.
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alephnerd大约 1 个月前
Services! Services services services!<p>This is what will help protect Nvidia now that DC and cluster spend is cooling.<p>They own the ecosystem thanks to CUDA, Infiniband, NGC, NVLink, and other key tools. Now they should add additional applications (the AI Foundry is a good way to do that), or forays into adjacent spaces like white-labeled cluster management.<p>Working on building custom designs and consulting on custom GPU projects would be helpful as well by helping monetize their existing design practice during slower markets.<p>Of course, Nvidia is starting to do both, with Nvidia AI Foundry for the former and is working on the latter by starting a GPU architecture and design consulting as announced at GTC and under McKinney
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echelon大约 1 个月前
&gt; While the H100 generation likely represents peak pricing power (new B200s have lower margins and higher COGS), an immediate lack of alternatives means they’ll continue to print cash.<p>That&#x27;s not a trend yet. We&#x27;re about to enter an era where most media is generated. Demand is only going to go up, and margins may not matter if volume goes up.<p>&gt; The open question is long-term (&gt;6yrs) durability1. Hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta) are aggressively consolidating AI demand to become the dominant consumers of AI accelerators; while developing competitive, highly-credible chip efforts.<p>Hyperscalers aren&#x27;t the only players building large GPU farms. There are large foundation model companies doing it too, and there are also new clouds that offer compute outside of the hyperscaler offerings (CoreWeave, Lambda, and dozens of others). Granted, these may be a drop in the bucket and hyperscalers may still win this trend.
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lvl155大约 1 个月前
I am starting to think AMD is doing this on purpose and they have some secret handshake deal with Nvidia. Nvidia has at least two more years of “sellout at any price” market. Not because they have the best solution (which they do atm) but because they basically share the monopoly with Apple at TSMC. And Apple is content wasting that away on iPhones.
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otistravel大约 1 个月前
The author completely underestimates NVIDIA&#x27;s strategic position. They don&#x27;t need to win the hardware game forever - they&#x27;re building the entire AI stack: hardware, networking, software, models, developer tools. Nobody else is doing this comprehensively. While hyperscalers are making custom chips for their own use cases, NVIDIA is building a unified platform that everyone else will use. This isn&#x27;t about who makes the best GPU, it&#x27;s about who builds the ecosystem that becomes the industry standard.
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Havoc大约 1 个月前
They’re basically going from a functional monopoly to having to compete.<p>Not ideal for them but hardly a death blow
ein0p大约 1 个月前
How can it be &quot;slipping&quot; if they sell out of all their stuff years in advance? I still can&#x27;t find any sanely priced 5090s. And before you point out that 5090s are not their main revenue driver, they&#x27;re sold out of H100s and so on years in advance, too.
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latchkey大约 1 个月前
Oct 2024
cornhole大约 1 个月前
nvidia&#x27;s gpu drivers qa is definitely slipping
mkoubaa大约 1 个月前
When takes like these go mainstream (Financial Times, etc) I buy.
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