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Reports of the death of California High-Speed Rail have been greatly exaggerated

219 点作者 surprisetalk14 天前

39 条评论

pj_mukh13 天前
This is the most California article ever written. The author admits that if the line was run along the I-5 it probably wouldn&#x27;t need all the costly grade-separation and state property issues it&#x27;s now facing. It may have even finished with its original funding! But instead of immediately being able to serve the upwards of 18M people of Greater Los Angeles and 7.5M people of the Bay Area, the 1M people of the Central Valley would have to wait for branches to be built.<p><i>SO INSTEAD</i> we took the more circuitous route through Central Valley so that the 1M people feel immediately included and <i>NO ONE</i> is getting a high speed rail.<p>Sir! ChatGPT couldn&#x27;t come up with a more California scented boondoggle.
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trollbridge13 天前
This was both a very good read and thoroughly depressing.<p>It makes a lot of sense to connect San Diego&#x2F;LA&#x2F;Sacramento&#x2F;San Francisco.<p>It makes a lot less sense to try to connect Merced, Bakersfield, Fresno, et al. People there like to have cars, like to drive, there isn&#x27;t a lot of traffic. Once you arrive in those places, there is very little transit infrastructure. You basically need a car. And they&#x27;re far more centred around ag or industry, so more reason to have commercial &#x2F; truck traffic and a lot less for just passenger cars.<p>Meanwhile, there are over 100 flights a day between LA area and SF. Meanwhile, Merced has 2 flights a day to LA on a tiny prop, Bakersfield has 2 to SF, and Fresno around 5 a day. There aren&#x27;t any flights at all between Bakersfield&#x2F;Sacramento&#x2F;Fresno&#x2F;Merced.<p>Whereas SF&#x2F;LA&#x2F;San Diego make complete sense to have a train station with plenty of transit options to get around once you arrive.<p>(To get an idea of what I&#x27;m talking about - traffic on I-5 is so heavy, we would often take 99 instead, when going between SD&#x2F;LA and Sacramento. 99 is 2 miles farther than I-5.)<p>San Diego&#x2F;LA&#x2F;SF&#x2F;Sacramento is one of the few markets in America that could reasonably support high speed rail. And it&#x27;s sad to see it being strangled in the crib.
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rsync13 天前
One issue with &quot;CA HSR&quot; is that it isn&#x27;t even &quot;high speed&quot;.<p>We may have happily referred to is as &quot;high speed rail&quot; 30 or 40 years ago but, given a possible completion date of 2035 (or whatever) the 2:40 travel time from SF &lt;-&gt; LA is unimpressive ... and even that will not be achieved:<p>&quot;California legislative overseers do not expect the 2 hr 40 min target will be achieved.&quot;[1]<p>The simple fact is that the I-5 corridor is the spine of California and should be leveraged for all additional infrastructure build-out ... which would yield economies of scale and network effects for rail, network lines, water transmission, electrical distribution and (eventually) autonomous trucking.<p>Instead we&#x27;re spending billions to build a slow, circuitous route to Fresno.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;California_High-Speed_Rail" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;California_High-Speed_Rail</a>
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femiagbabiaka13 天前
It&#x27;s absolutely critical that a country with California&#x27;s GDP learns how to rearchitect itself to build again -- literally critical for America&#x27;s progression. Nothing in this article makes me feel any better about the prospects of that happening.
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janalsncm13 天前
&gt; claim that the relative failure of the California High-Speed Rail “boondoggle” represents the political dysfunction of either California<p>&gt; This criticism also misunderstands one of the main challenges that CAHSR has faced. Al Boraq had full funding lined up before the project began. CAHSR did not. This led to delays that reduced support and encouraged critics, which starved it of funding commitments and thus led to further delays. California undermined CAHSR from the start.<p>That just sounds like describing dysfunctional government using more words. Either the government can get it done or they can’t. Allowing endless vetos and delays to gum up the process is a political decision.
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kaonwarb13 天前
There are some really good details in the article. But, to quote: &gt; Despite more than a decade of predictions of its failure, the project has persevered — even if its completion is in limbo.<p>I&#x27;m not sure that&#x27;s much of an endorsement.
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zahlman13 天前
As I read through this, I got the distinct impression that the author mainly intends to complain about people describing the cause of failures as &quot;political dysfunction&quot;, but then describes actual causes that I would absolutely summarize as being forms of political dysfunction.
apexalpha13 天前
Critics: wow this is a great example of government dysfunction through excessive regulations and political steering of a engineering project.<p>Author: Actually, you are entirely wrong. Let me explain to you in 3000 words how this project failed due to political interference and excessive regulations in California while pretending this is somehow not CAHSR fault and also not providing any path forward to fix it.<p>???<p><i>While no final track has yet been laid, this constitutes the vast majority of the work to prepare the route. </i><p>This author isn&#x27;t evaluating this project fairly, this author seems to be in first stage of grief: denial.
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georgeecollins13 天前
I remember when BART was first built and San Mateo county opted out of BART. You couldn&#x27;t take BART to SFO or even South San Francisco. Now they are talking about extending it to San Jose? This may sound very Californian, but I always support trains because once you have it it doesn&#x27;t go away and eventually you get more that makes the train even more useful.
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1970-01-0113 天前
In the exact same amount of time, China has gone from 0 to 25,000 miles in high speed rail.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;List_of_high-speed_railway_lines_in_China" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;List_of_high-speed_railway_lin...</a>
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shipp0213 天前
To everyone saying SF-LA already has plenty of flights, consider the following benefits of trains:<p>- No need to worry about how much luggage I have. It will likely be a minimal charge if there is even one<p>- Trains are more comfortable with larger seats, usually<p>- Trains will make tickets cheaper, putting downward pressure on flight tickets as well (competition)<p>- Less security theatre and less worrying about what I can and can&#x27;t carry<p>- You can still have good internet access<p>This is in addition to the environmental benefits of trains.<p>Perfect is the enemy of good. More sections and branches can be added. Piecemeal is how transportation infrastructure grows everywhere. It does not come to fulfill everyone&#x27;s needs all at once.
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Lammy13 天前
&gt; Only if the Central Valley alignment had been selected would CAHSR actually the “train to nowhere” that critics deride it as.<p>Can&#x27;t wait to pay $400 per trip to visit all of these lovely places: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;hsr.ca.gov&#x2F;wp-content&#x2F;uploads&#x2F;2022&#x2F;04&#x2F;20220427-Agenda-Item-No-04-Design-Services-Central-Valley-Stations-Presentation-A11Y.pdf#page=4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;hsr.ca.gov&#x2F;wp-content&#x2F;uploads&#x2F;2022&#x2F;04&#x2F;20220427-Agend...</a>
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narrator13 天前
In San Francisco they did a 1 mile extension of the subway and it cost 1 billion dollars. That&#x27;s 10x what it would cost in any other major city anywhere in the world, but a whole bunch of middle management surplus elites found a way to get at all the tech company tax revenue, so the tunnel served it&#x27;s purpose and nobody is upset.<p>The high speed rail project is serving a similar redistributive purpose to act as middle class welfare for people who work from home, go to zoom meetings and produce and review reports. Living in California is already as good as it gets, nothing needs to improve, but it sure is expensive so the governments job is to take tech money and dig and fill up holes in the ground and use homeless crackheads who randomly attack people and are never put in prison to terrorize the normies into continuing to pay for it all. If any of these projects got finished or there was a reasonable resolution to the homeless issue, all those middle class liberal arts degree meeting attenders would be out of a job and couldn&#x27;t afford to live here.
slt202113 天前
Reading the article I think CAHSR is using agile method of delivering value. Electrification of caltrain in sfbay, removing rr crossings in LA, finishing overall plan and acquisitions, laying relatively low cost and easy central valley track, while putting the most costly activities to the end: boring an actual tunnels in mountain ranges
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tptacek13 天前
This piece seems to concede all of the problems critics of CAHSR (notably Ezra Klein) bring up, and then argues they never should have been problems in the first place or begs their underlying questions. For instance, yes, it took forever for funding to get secured. That&#x27;s part of the state capacity critique of CAHSR!<p>Or, for another example, yes, the current Central Valley routing is practically just as hard (per mile) as a direct I5 route which would actually serve the largest population centers in CA. But, the piece argues, this would leave &quot;more than a million people&quot; in the Central Valley underserved. Uh... and? The I5 route would have served <i>over twenty million people</i>.
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andbberger13 天前
CAHSR was killed decades ago by politics and corruption. whether or not choosing the valley route over I5 doomed the project is debatable, but choosing pacheco and tehachapi over altamont and tejon certainly did.<p>your guess is as good as mine as to why things like water infrastructure and telecoms are quietly built to requirements in the background while rail infrastructure is opened to the public forum, but the inability or unwillingness of the state government to go full climate stalin on this project and design it without compromise killed it.
amadeuspagel13 天前
&gt; the expectation was that the $9.95 billion in state bonds voters approved would be matched or exceeded by federal funding (as is normally the case for highway projects)<p>Where is that fourth biggest economy of the world talk now? The fifth biggest economy of the world can build things without federal funding.
atleastoptimal13 天前
Reading stuff like this is so tiresome. Is the fate of living in the United States just watching China casually lap us in every possible major infrastructural project, completing everything faster, cheaper, and at a much higher quality?<p>It feels almost humiliating at this point reading any story about a public works&#x2F;transportation project in the US, just endless delays, comically high costs, and a strangely small focus on the actual material realities of the matter and a failure to deliver promises on time.
legitster13 天前
The reality is for every government constraint, there are even more difficult economic constraints that it has to work against.<p>A 90-minute flight between these SF and LA can be had for ~$80 or less. A 7-hour bus ticket between these two cities is ~$50. To put it another way, the train would have to be only half-again more expensive per passenger to operate <i>than a bus</i> to beat a flight on price.<p>I get it that there are niche reasons some individuals would prefer a train. But the economies of scale that they need to achieve here is ridiculous.
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GenerocUsername13 天前
Even if it succeeds on its current trajectory, it will be studied for 100 years as a massive failure.
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dekhn13 天前
I simply cannot see HSR sharing track with Caltrain between San Jose and SF working at all. There are only two tracks (North and South) and there is no room to build more. So it would seem that no high speed rail could go faster than caltrain on that segment and could not achieve the target travel time.<p>What I wish- although it may not be feasible- was a straight shot from Burbank to San Jose- as a single tunnel.
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cantrecallmypwd13 天前
CAHSR was opined years before SR 85 and 87 and before VTA light rail.<p>It&#x27;s the perpetually never-happening, chicken-vs-egg aspirational project for mass transit in an area dominated by urban sprawl and car-first infrastructure that would need massive investment in local mass transit like Japan first.
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dragonwriter13 天前
Article is deeply misleading, pretending that Brightline West has proceeded many times faster than CA HSR, when that is not at all true. While the particular operator and name are relatively recent, that project has been through many names and operators, each of which has built on the progress done by the previous one, and, despite being much simpler project than CA HSR, is also <i>older</i> than CA HSR, starting as Desert Xpress in 2005 (the ballot measure which set up the California High Speed Rail Authority and outlined the basic concept of the project was passed in 2008.)
po2651113 天前
So as far as I can tell, the article isn&#x27;t satire. Am I the only one that came away with a great explanation of why California High-Speed rail is indeed dead?
Oneword13 天前
A long storied boondogle. As both a SoCal and NorCal resident for my whole life, this initiative has gotten more interesting as the years have passed. There are so many deeply embeded issues with this infratructure project that I dont feel confident it&#x27;ll ever come to fruition. Land fights, local and regional politics..
casey213 天前
If this administration really wanted to turn the US into a manufacturing powerhouse on the level of China then it would HAVE to steamroll over NIMBYs and red tape, and would plan to lay 1000x more track year on year. Without rail there is 0 chance the US ever becomes competitive there is no magic innovation to be had here.
nelox13 天前
Convincing a car obsessed populace will be the clincher. What will you do at your destination? Rent a car? Stroll through quaint medieval environs of cosmopolitan downtown Los Angeles?
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cameldrv13 天前
Given that it took them 17 years to lay the first piece of track, I&#x27;m not optimistic that it will be complete in my lifetime.
divbzero13 天前
Does anyone know how Florida’s Miami–Orlando Brightline is doing? I believe that’s the only higher-speed rail route opened since Acela.
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jmyeet13 天前
The California HSR reveals pretty much every problem with building anything in the US: private property, local interests and grift.<p>It also shows that mandating the speed in the amendment was probably a bad idea as it&#x27;s greatly increased the cost projections.<p>China has a command economy so simply doesn&#x27;t have to deal with eminent domain (and challenges thereto), environmental challenges (as much as environmental protection is a nobel goal, laws in California like CEQA have really been weaponized and the sole purpose is to stop any development whatsoever by local property interests), etc.<p>The route is being changed so include towns of 30,000 in the Central Valley. It&#x27;s running down the I-5 corridor last I heard because that&#x27;s where these small towns are vs the faster route to the west.<p>Just build connecting lines if connections to small communities are important. The primary purpose should be LA to SF&amp;SJ.<p>If the HSR runs a train from LA to SF before 2050 I&#x27;ll be shocked.
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cuuupid13 天前
The problem with local infrastructure projects is their responsibility and execution fall to local community leaders (in this case local = state of California). These leaders are far less efficient and impactful than the federal government, a bar which is already way too low. Nearly every city in the US has had recent collisions with corruption, blatant mismanagement, ideological forces co-opting process, etc. and so most local infrastructure projects are doomed from the start.<p>The problem with high speed rail, then, is that it is always going to be a local (=state) infrastructure project. America is far, far, far too large for high speed rail to be feasible at a national level, and so we have invested in airports. This is largely a success; much of the year you can travel from NYC to Miami (~1200 mi, roughly UK -&gt; Spain) for $100-200 in a few hours. There are, of course, many issues with air travel that we are still working on, but unless there is a breakthrough to make supersonic land travel affordable, we are stuck with air travel at a national level.<p>But where do we go from here? We know the federal process is too bloated to succeed with infrastructure projects, and when it is forced to it ends up being prohibitively expensive. We know the state process is doomed to fail and similarly be very expensive. We have already tried privatizing it and failed, and even when subsidizing private industry we get subpar results at best. What options are even left at this point?
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pizzafeelsright13 天前
It won&#x27;t be killed. Too much grift.
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taco_emoji13 天前
Is this headline meant to be deliberately confusing?
JumpCrisscross13 天前
Cancel the the HSR and put the funding into improving regional rail in Los Angeles and the Bay Area. (Sacramento can come too.)<p>The model shouldn&#x27;t be the TGV. It should be the New York metro area&#x27;s Metro-North and LIRR. I&#x27;d also argue for a significant amount of motorail [1] stock, but that offends the train purists.<p>&gt; <i>While no final track has yet been laid, this constitutes the vast majority of the work to prepare the route</i><p>Right, that&#x27;s the problem. Invisible work gobbles up time and money due to a broken process that prorioritises bullshit over tangible results.<p>&gt; <i>The project has sufficient California funds only to last through the Trump administration, complete and electrify the existing 120 miles, purchase train sets, and begin construction of the Merced and Bakersfield extensions — but not fully complete them</i><p>Don&#x27;t start shit you can&#x27;t finish. Electrify and expand the regional rail and pause work in the Central Valley. Because you know who <i>could</i> catch the Trump administration&#x27;s sympathy? Central Valley farmers.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Motorail" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Motorail</a>
moralestapia13 天前
Imagination: Another ~3,800 words worth of &quot;opinion&quot;.<p>Reality: Zero miles of high-speed rail deployed.<p>Many such cases.<p>Edit: Downvote all you want, that still won&#x27;t make the rails appear, lmao.
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exabrial13 天前
Can we please just kill this dumb project for good? Billions funneled into people&#x27;s pockets for like a mile of rail.
lenerdenator13 天前
Can you kill something that isn&#x27;t, technically speaking, alive?
nimish13 天前
I think the biggest issue with CAHSR is that Florida just did it anyway.
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xnx13 天前
California &quot;high-speed&quot; rail is failing because it doesn&#x27;t make sense. For all the billions already spent and planning to be spent, the delivered product is severely underwhelming. Trains go few of the places people want to go on the schedule they want to go.<p>Planes, by comparison, are an absolute bargain. Travel between almost any two cities quickly and affordably. By most calculations, planes also have less environmental impact because you don&#x27;t need to build hundreds of miles of concrete and steel tracks.<p>Trains are great for bulk freight, but have very few sensible applications in the US. California would be better off with bus service if they really want a public option.
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