Amazon Wants to Be a Satellite-Internet Powerhouse. It Has a Long Way to Go

If you look at their marketing material, you find that they are marketing Kuiper almost exactly the way that SpaceX markets Starlink. Except for specialty markets, and what are literally edge cases, they both face a shrinking TAM due to the expansion of terrestrial wireless.<p>I also can&#x27;t find any compelling synergies with AWS, which seems like the obvious place to look for an advantage if you are Amazon.

If you&#x27;re on the younger side, you may not remember how we&#x27;ve been here before. In the 1990s there was a glut of satellite companies (eg Teledesic, Iridium, Worldsat) [1].<p>SpaceX&#x27;s strategy here is quite brilliant: they induce demand for launches and prove Falon 9 reuse while deploying satellites at relatively low cost (because of the reuse) at a price level absolutely nobody can compete with. They&#x27;re doing well over 100 launches a year at this point.<p>Bezos seems to want to repeat this with Amazon, Blue Origin and Kuiper but I think they&#x27;ve lost before they&#x27;ve even started. Blue Origin simply doesn&#x27;t have the orbital launch capability that SpaceX does and certainly not anywhere near the price point. BO has underdelivered on BE-$ and New Glenn. SpaceX did too to be fair but that&#x27;s in the past (ignoring Starship).<p>Starlink is a relatively simple design: it&#x27;s surface-to-surface through a single hop. I think satellite Internet is likely already a saturated market given you&#x27;re competing with 4G&#x2F;5G wireless and fixed line. There&#x27;s only so many remote locations and people on the move to sell to.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;interactive.satellitetoday.com&#x2F;via-satellite-at-30-the-1990s-and-early-2000s&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;interactive.satellitetoday.com&#x2F;via-satellite-at-30-t...</a>

Why does Bezos always feel like he needs to be everything for everyone. He is almost as bad at focusing on core businesses and strengths as Zuckerberg.

In the 2000s the American Government released GPS to everyone. This prevented unnecessary constellations of commercial satellites from companies like TomTom and Garmin which would have polluted orbit and complicated future space missions.<p>The US Government should nationalize Starlink and provide all Americans with internet service. It&#x27;s the only way satellite internet makes sense.

So is the problem of too much space junk real? If yes then how much can satellite Internet really grow?

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[dupe] Discussion: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=43827083">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=43827083</a>

If it’s convenient like Prime then sure. I like the 5% back on the entire ecosystem plus watching Fallout and other cool shows.

The terms of their FCC license require them to have half their presently licensed constellation, roughly 1600 satellites, in orbit by July of 2026. They&#x27;re almost certainly not going to make it, but I would be very surprised if the FCC doesn&#x27;t grant them an extension if they can show they&#x27;re making serious progress and aren&#x27;t just squatting on that spectrum.<p>The curveball is Trump&#x2F;Musk influencing the FCC&#x27;s decision making processes, which is definitely possible. On the other hand, the FCC must know that they will be accused of being corrupt if they don&#x27;t grant an extension.

No Paywall: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.today&#x2F;brZmg" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.today&#x2F;brZmg</a>