I've been hearing a lot of bold tech predictions lately - some in conversations at work or with friends, others here on HN, and others from podcasts and articles. Things like:<p>-LLMs reaching human-level reasoning within 2 years<p>-Self-driving taxis taking over major cities by 2027<p>-AI replacing most programming jobs within 5 years<p>-AI personalities becoming household names<p>-AGI arriving before 2030<p>-Apple Vision Pro doing for AR what iPhone did for smartphones (despite its current flop)<p>-Voice interfaces becoming the primary way we interact with computers<p>-The end of traditional cloud infrastructure as serverless takes over<p>-Code becoming mostly AI-written with humans just reviewing<p>-Vibe coding replacing traditional coding<p>-The four-day workweek will become standard across most tech companies by 2027<p>-Tech regulation will force the breakup of at least one major tech company<p>-Quantum computing will break most current encryption by 2030<p>Some of these are things I could see happening (or are already beginning to happen), but others seem exaggerated to me.<p>What tech prediction do you think most people have totally wrong and why?<p>I'm not looking for generic tech pessimism; I'm more interested in specific predictions you think won't pan out and why.
People are too long on Apple - their revenue comes from increasingly fragile sources and in all likelihood their current businesses may not exist in 5 years. Tim Cook didn't skate where the puck was headed, and as a result he's operating a uniquely disadvantaged business in 2025. Their hardware margins are jeopardized by tariffs and their software revenue is mostly backstopped by an illegally monopolized App Store. In a realistic scenario where Apple is deprived of these advantages, no amount of lifestyle branding or privacy prestige can prevent them from being unprofitable.