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Era of U.S. dollar may be winding down

184 点作者 gnabgib14 天前

21 条评论

knuckleheads14 天前
He&#x27;s been on a bit of a book tour recently and his name kept ringing a bell for me dimly every time I saw him pop up, and then one day it hit me, Rogoff is the economist who was found to have made a serious mistake in their paper about the effect of debts levels on GDP growth a decade and a half ago. The paper argued that the higher the levels of debt, the more gdp growth slowed down and reversed. This paper as used to support a lot of austerity policies in response to the GFC in the years following 2008. Some, at the time, grad students looked into though and found that there were lots of serious mistakes with the paper.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Growth_in_a_Time_of_Debt" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Growth_in_a_Time_of_Debt</a><p>Leaving a comment for others just in case others are experiencing that same mis-connect. As far as the article goes, we&#x27;ll see! I&#x27;m inclined to think that is true, that the US is retreating from the world stage and the dollar will follow, but whether that happens now, later or never, I couldn&#x27;t say. Interesting times!
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JCattheATM14 天前
Of course it is. The current administration is eradication all the soft power the US built up since WW2 under the mistaken belief they can go back to how things were in the 1950s, instead they&#x27;re going to make things so much worse for themselves and the very smart big beautiful high IQ people who voted them in.
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Osyris14 天前
Ezra Klein had an interesting interview[1] with Kenneth Rogoff (the author) about this topic recently. It&#x27;s worth a listen.<p>1. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2025&#x2F;05&#x2F;02&#x2F;opinion&#x2F;ezra-klein-podcast-kenneth-rogoff.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2025&#x2F;05&#x2F;02&#x2F;opinion&#x2F;ezra-klein-podcas...</a>
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jackconsidine14 天前
&gt; Treasury Secretary John Connally to meet with these leaders in Rome. They asked, “What do we do? Now that you’re not on gold, you can just inflate this stuff, and we’re stuck with it.” And Connally replied, “Well, it’s our dollar, but it’s your problem.”<p>Unrelated but this is John Connaly who was governor of Texas during the JFK assassination. One of the bullets -- possibly the one that killed Kennedy -- went through Connaly&#x27;s wrist &amp; ribs
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pylua14 天前
Isn’t the dollar dominance a bit of a blessing and a curse? Labor rate in U.S. is very high compared to other countries.<p>It inevitably brings us many benefits, but it does feel like the U.S. and other western countries are being hollowed out.<p>Maybe this is more of cost disease than dollar dominance. Maybe they are related in some ways?
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hayst4ck14 天前
The liberation day tariffs were definitely something. The tariff numbers themselves were chosen explicitly in reference to trade deficits. Trade deficits are an exact measurement of the strength of the US dollar as a reserve currency.<p>Reducing trade deficits to zero is exactly ending the dollar as a reserve currency since it implies that no country has dollars in reserve. There is a stated a goal of this ruling regime to return to the gold standard.<p>So who was being liberated? From what I could tell it was authoritarian countries from the consequences of the sanctions framework provided by SWIFT and trade predominately occurring via the dollar. Rogoff explicitly states that the dollar as reserve currency has incredible intelligence value and allowed for us to impose sanctions on other countries.<p>The number of ways to interpret liberation day in a dystopian way are large, and I can&#x27;t really think of any American entity that directly benefits from liberation day &quot;liberation&quot; except potentially unskilled American labor who might be free to work sweatshop jobs that get re-homed, if they aren&#x27;t automated or don&#x27;t just disappear entirely.
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treebeard90114 天前
At the end of the day, youre just moving an amount from one ledger to another. Its all digital now too. A reserve currency was always a technological issue. SWIFT is largely just FTP servers.<p>The fall back for a long time was that half of the problem was exchanging money between two countries, and then shipping the goods relied on a strong blue water navy.<p>The U.S. doesnt have the lead it used to in either area.<p>Sanctions didnt help either.<p>Another issue is the ongoing attacks on the rule of law and the courts. There was a reason why Russians kept so much money in British banks, it was the trust in the institutions that caused the inflow.<p>Its like a perfect storm to destroy your currency credibility.
incomingpain11 天前
Money comes from essentially 4 sources. Energy, Housing, Education, and cars.<p>The USA will remain reserve currency even though it will or has withdrawn from bretton woods and its role as world police.
pedalpete14 天前
Though BRICS may seem insignificant atm, it is off to an impressive start.<p>Could the world have two competing currencies? Possibly.<p>But the one way to guarantee that adversaries (I don&#x27;t care who your adversaries are, I&#x27;m using that as a non-denominational term) don&#x27;t get the upper hand, is to use a currency they can&#x27;t control or manipulate.<p>ATM the US dollar, can be manipulated by the Fed, but also by the collaboration of other countries, and holders of debt, as recently shown by the US bond activity.<p>I know many on HN are going to hate to hear this, but a single, global, trust-less currency cannot be manipulated against any single group. So bitcoin may just be the answer here.
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the_real_cher14 天前
what&#x27;s going to replace it?
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siavosh14 天前
I only learned this recently but Stephen Miran, President Trump’s chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, in 2024 basically laid out the plan to de-value the USD and to encourage foreign nations to move to more diverse basket of currencies all while trying to balance the transition and mostly maintain the geopolitical power of remaining the reserve currency. Who know how it will play.
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dukeofdoom14 天前
Can capitalism buy it&#x27;s own goods it produces without inflation? I heard someone claim that the only way the system balances is by printing money. Workers are paid less than the value they produce, and they&#x27;re most of the consumers. So governments encourages workers to borrow money from banks (home loans, car loans, credit cards, and so on) to buy the goods they produce. But in the end the government still needs to purchase the excess through deficit spending. Like we saw for example during covid. In Canada government doubled its debt. To keep things from falling apart. And inflation is the only way they made it go on. But it&#x27;s not sustainable, because now good chunk of taxes go to paying previous government&#x27;s debt, and citizens get less services in return for more taxes. Clearly this loop is not sustainable too many times.
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imgabe14 天前
Anything might be happening. Does anyone ever collect statements like this and see if they turn out to be true or not? Predictions like this show up in the news all the time and they’re pretty meaningless. They just slide out of public consciousness in a few days and nobody ever knows if they were right or wrong.
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arghwhat14 天前
[flagged]
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deadbabe14 天前
The era of bitcoin should be coming right
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starik3614 天前
I&#x27;ve been reading this news headline since I was a teenager. I am over 50 now. Why is this time different?
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justanotheratom14 天前
USD Stablecoins could be driving real demand for USD, no?<p>&quot;The total transaction volume for USD-pegged stablecoins in 2024 was approximately $27.6 trillion, based on industry reports from CEX.IO and other sources.&quot;
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mgaunard14 天前
Crypto is the new dollar, and it is very dollar-centric.
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ldjkfkdsjnv14 天前
I&#x27;m actually converting to believing in bitcoin, and that usa politicians&#x2F;financiers have used the dollar as a way to side step wide ranging problems in the USA, at the expense of currency devaluation. Bitcoin is a backstop, a way to step outside manipulated currency.
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alphazard14 天前
&gt; It will still be first in global finance, because nothing is poised to fully replace it.<p>There are many countries with their own currencies, and all it takes is one of them to back it with gold, or a basket of commodities, and create infrastructure around it, and now there is something more attractive than the dollar to denominate debts in. That&#x27;s all it takes. Everyone just wants to conduct business, get paid, buy food, etc. If the dollar is inflating away 10% every year, and there&#x27;s something that fluctuates less than that, it&#x27;s not exactly a hard choice. Especially if the choice is just a drop down in an app.<p>What may be more concerning, is it&#x27;s not going to be a western democracy that sets up a stable-coin backed by commodities. They move too slowly, it&#x27;s going to be an authoritarian regime that can move fast and wants to advance it&#x27;s significance in the global economy.
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etaioinshrdlu14 天前
Why does this really matter so much?<p>I think what matters more is national wealth, wealth per capita, and their growth rates. This is an interesting list: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;List_of_countries_by_total_wealth" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;List_of_countries_by_total_wea...</a>
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