Everyone and their cousin has an opinion on the tariffs, but I fear that most of what I hear is very partisan, or focuses on details aside from the meat of the actual tariffs (eg, math errors, details of rollout, inconsistent communication, etc). I'm interested to hear an analysis of the impact from the 'raw' tariffs themselves, from people that have some credentials in this space (ie, not just armchair experts). To give some specific topics of interest:<p>1. I've heard the argument that tariffs will incentivize manufacturing to return to the US. To what degree is this true? Are there alternative methods that achieve similar things?<p>2. This article (https://www.economicforces.xyz/p/is-dollar-dominance-good-for-the) seems to claim that increased tariffs will reduce trade deficit, in turn reducing financial deficit, which avoids some issues of a Triffin Dilemma (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma). To what degree is this true? Are there alternative methods to achieve a similar thing?<p>3. Are there other legitimate arguments for / against the tariffs that I've missed?
(Not an economist, but physicist by education) I suppose on such a large macroeconomic scale accuracy of professional economists answers are not much closer to the truth (or to longterm outcomes) than any couch expert. This is why there are so many fierce debates and opinions all over the spectrum around it. We can’t possibly calculate such a huge dynamic system with any certainty on any meaningful distance (like years).