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Fed Undertakes QE3 With $40 Billion in MBS Purchases Each Month

42 点作者 simonreed超过 12 年前

9 条评论

johnnyg超过 12 年前
First the problem:<p>Say your company brought in $1M a year in revenue and you had $1.04M in debt and growing. Say you had 40% margins and were trying to service that debt with your 400k of gross profit.<p>You would not be in business long.<p>The fiscal reality of the US government is the same save for one key fact: they can print money. As a result, they can carry on this sorry fiscal situation for an amazingly long time, but not forever.<p>Japan has been in this situation more than a decade. They remain powerful.<p>This state of affairs will affect you as a company in these ways:<p>1. Your taxes must go up. This isn't a political thing so much as bottom line math thing. The more they take in revenue from you, the less they have to borrow or print and the longer this whole system keeps going. They can tax the rich at 100% and still not have nearly enough money to service their current debt, let alone the constantly increasing spend.<p>2. Market certainty will go down. No one wants increased taxes - politicians or citizens. This pressure from both sides creates things like the coming 'fiscal cliff' where either we reach a budget cutting agreement or draconian cuts go into effect. The market hates not knowing and people spend less in these cases. It looks like there will be a pattern of these occurring in the foreseeable future, which means less people spending less money with your business.<p>3. Dollars will be worth less. To hold the true value you receive for your service steady, you will have to increase the number of dollars you ask for from customers. Unfortunately, these customers will have less dollars in their pocket because wage inflation tends to trail price inflation. Be aware that as long as the US can borrow money and keep interest rates on bonds low as a result, inflation reported by the feds will remain low. It also pays to be the tallest midget. US dollars remain the world standard, so when there is a panic in Europe or Asia, people rush to buy our bonds, which bolsters our dollar and purchasing power relative to other nations. This ends when the market no longer believes we can pay. This could be tomorrow, next year, in 10 years or never if we really get our act together.<p>4. The dollars you've earned might not be worth much when you go to spend them. Say there's nothing to worry about for the next 10 years, but then it gets so bad that the market says 'enough, we're not buying these bonds anymore USA.' The USA at that point can print the money and pay the bonds with it or default. Either way, the dollars you earned through sweat and tears aren't worth much and the business that made them isn't attractive to customers at the "new normal" price points. At this nearly worst case point, you are poor, hit from both sides of the inflation game. This is one reason any thread of this nature has at least one mention of 'Gold!', as it holds its value no matter what the government does - assuming you can both hold onto it and trade it for fair value when you need it.
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jstalin超过 12 年前
The PhD's at the Federal reserve, the same ones who have gotten every major economic and financial prognostication wrong, think that printing more money, i.e., debasing the currency, is going to create jobs.<p>Since the Federal Reserve now is the largest single owner of US government bonds[1] and since it has come close to purchasing all available bonds at the long end of the spectrum[2], it is doing the last thing it can think of: an open-ended, unlimited purchase of Mortgage-Backed Securities. This is the terminal end-game of central banking.<p>This won't end well.<p>[1] See <a href="http://cnsnews.com/news/article/fed-now-largest-owner-us-gov-t-debt-surpassing-china" rel="nofollow">http://cnsnews.com/news/article/fed-now-largest-owner-us-gov...</a> (2011), updated data here <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/quarterly-report-20120630.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/quarterly...</a> and here <a href="http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt" rel="nofollow">http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/ti...</a>.<p>[2] <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/scary-math-behind-mechanics-qe3-and-why-bernankes-hands-may-be-tied" rel="nofollow">http://www.zerohedge.com/news/scary-math-behind-mechanics-qe...</a>
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mindslight超过 12 年前
.. and just when I was starting to forget the details of the insane rabbit hole called the "economy" that make leading a simple life, getting a salaried job, and making an incremental contribution to society an utter non-starter. Even more direct subsidies to the bankers who own "your" house, so they can continue their charade of overinflated home prices and demanding hefty rent simply for a place to <i>exist</i>. Never mind that you're still responsible for the maintenance, and probably have not the knowledge nor time to do it yourself, as you're too busy working to service your indentured servant mouse wheel.<p>I just don't get what keeps most people complaining about one or two narrow pieces of the puzzle, but yet completely accepting of the entire perverted ball of wax of over-abstracted, hollowed out, and corrupt institutions. This mild dissent is then amazingly converted into <i>support</i> every time an election roles around, where the socially acceptable thing is to cheer on your chosen republocrat, pretending that electing new faces will change anything (not that a third party would magically fix things either, it's just a minimum viable dissent). Is it just straightforward cognitive dissonance because of how painful it would be to admit most things you take for granted are simply not there? Is it that most people smart enough to actually see how rigged the game are still able to achieve an "above average" place in society and thus aren't interested in meta questions ? I suppose anything is easier than developing an adversarial individualist perspective which can't be unseen.
politician超过 12 年前
Based on the results of QE1 and QE2, I expect the price of gold to rise, and the action to provide no long term benefit in terms of jobs or GDP growth. The answer to our problems is cheap energy, not more paper.<p>.. looks like gold spiked up 2% on the news.
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fbuilesv超过 12 年前
Can someone with knowledge of economy explain what's going on here and how does this affect me as an individual or as a company?
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confluence超过 12 年前
Fellow HNers - the comments you see here are from random people on the internet without the slightest qualifications and their own pet theories and agendas so please take them with a grain of salt.
ww520超过 12 年前
Is that why the BitCoin is roaring back?
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bira超过 12 年前
Got gold?
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Toshio超过 12 年前
I'm confused, how is this hacker news?
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