I like assumption 3:
How efficient is spamming, mailing, tweeting, posting and otherwise contacting friends, fools, families, bloggers and journos?<p>Result: Abysmal.<p>If you stay in stealth mode for long periods of time prior to launch, the "amount of righteousness" in your vision/future-product and the conviction with which you believe this, will not help you overcome the impedance barrier of becoming part of the Internet zeitgeist.<p>Sometimes, you do not appreciate how deep the water is (nor how fast it flows) until you step into it.