Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long

I agree with the fact that we are in a "D-process", but I'm skeptical about the "long" part. Something new is happening with the widespread availability of information through multiple channels, and I think because of this our economic cycles are "compressed".<p>My prediction is that the rate at which businesses change/modify/adapt (especially in the financial sector) will be readily reflected in the information that is spread through multiple channels, resulting in a compression of the time frames of the current "D-process".

Very interesting interview but I was confused about his predictions for gold and inflation.<p>He makes the point that deflation is a serious concern so the Fed will devalue and gold will be a great investment. But then he says that the devaluation will barely produce a single digit rate of inflation and stocks will be a great buy.<p>So which is it, low inflation and cheap stocks, or gold?<p>Gold doesn't pay dividends so the only way you make a profit is by it going up, or you simply preserve your wealth when there's inflation.<p>But why would you hide in gold with low single digit inflation?

There's a good article in the FT today on a similar theme: how this recession is/isn't like past recessions, particularly the Japanese "lost decade".<p><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/774c0920-fd1d-11dd-a103-000077b07658.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/774c0920-fd1d-11dd-a103-000077b076...</a>

finally someone is pointing to one of the real fundamental issues <a href="http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-DC115_BATOPC_NS_20090206234459.gif" rel="nofollow">http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-DC115_BATOPC_NS_...</a><p>when you have huge negative savings for many many years that is unsustainable. we are now correcting.

When Barrons starts releasing stuff like this, it's time to put your contrarian hats on.

It seems like everyone's a prophet these days. I understand why, I think -- we all hate uncertainty. But no one knows the future; this is all too chaotic to predict. Let's hope that fact actually works to our advantage.