This betting site has a really stupid betting system. It appears that the amount of money you receive isn't based on a pricing of the bet, as is done on all real prediction markets, but based on a simple payout of all the bets received on the other side of the bet by the end of the bet date. This system has two practical consequences: 1. You can't determine the markets current probability estimates from the current state of the market, as you can with priced markets. 2. You should never bet until the last second so you can know the odds for the bet. In fact, it would make sense to create a sniping bot that would programmatically calculate the odds, compare them to your probability estimate, and only make the bet if it is favorable. There is another site called Bets of Bitcoin (<a href="http://betsofbitco.in/" rel="nofollow">http://betsofbitco.in/</a>) that has similarly dumb rules.<p>Edit: It appears that they actually tilt the payouts of bets based on an arbitrary weighting factor towards earlier bettors (arbitrary in that it doesn't at all take into account changing risk circumstances or likely levels of risk decay as a real market would), in some undisclosed fashion. I recommend that no one bet on this highly flawed system.