The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

When I ordered my Tesla S I also needed to get a 240V charger installed in my garage. Tesla sends you over to SolarCity for that and they can install it for you. This also gives them the perfect opportunity to offer you solar panels as well since they can show you, based on your electricity bill and the number of miles you are going to drive, how much it is going to save you.<p>Long story short, bought a Tesla S from Tesla, a outlet installation from SolarCity and now have also signed up for 8.8Kw solar panel system for my house.<p>The vertical integration of his investments is awesome. I just hope he somehow integrates in SpaceX ... maybe solar microwave power from orbit?

Musk's plan in a way serves as a reminder for those of us that tend to overestimate the role luck plays in the personal journey towards entrepreneurial success.<p>While generally HN users are open minded, no small number have derided the notion that others (perhaps far less capable than Musk), are capable of having a meaningful <i>vision</i>.<p>Of course having a <i>justified</i> belief and plan is a different approach to the lean startup philosophy. Lean effectively aligns more with the randomness worldview and iteration with an impartiality (or even celebration in some cases) of failure. Whereas OTOH, the visionary approach usually has more confidence in a self-directed path.<p>Those with this visionary quality (in varying levels of ability), can arrogantly dismiss others too, with behavior that is equally cringe worthy. Moreover, it would be hard to objectively and meaningfully argue either approach is universally "better".<p>However, perhaps the most significant indiscretion, is not in picking a side that works for you, but rather failing to see that two sides exist at all.

<i>August 2, 2006</i><p>The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)<p>From 2006. Nice to know they are still sticking with it :-)

They've followed the plan well. I'd also like to point out a lesser known article from 7 years ago: <a href="http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/09/01/8384349/index.htm" rel="nofollow">http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2...</a><p>The New Power Play<p>The Investor: Elon Musk, co-founder, PayPal<p>What he's backed: SpaceX, Tesla Motors<p>What he wants now: As Musk's two most recent investments - in a space rocket and an all-electric sports car - suggest, the 35-year-old entrepreneur likes to think big. So he's intrigued by the promise of a next-generation battery called an ultracapacitor, capable of powering everything from cars to tractors. Unlike chemical batteries, ultracapacitors store energy as an electrical field between a pair of conducting plates. Theoretically, they can be charged in less than a second rather than hours, be recharged repeatedly without sacrificing performance, and far outlast anything now on the market.<p>"I am convinced that the long-term solution to our energy needs lies with capacitors," Musk says. "You can't beat them for power, and they kick ass on any chemical battery."<p>Musk would know: He was doing Ph.D. work at Stanford on high-energy capacitors before he helped get PayPal off the ground. At least one startup, EEStor in Texas, and a larger company, Maxwell Technologies in California, are working on ultracapacitors. Yet Musk believes a university-based research group has an equal shot at a commercial breakthrough, since universities are where the most promising research is bubbling up. "The challenge is one of materials science, not money," Musk says.<p>The team to pull this off, he says, would need expertise in materials science, applied physics, and manufacturing. Musk wants to see a prototype that can power something small, like a boom box. "Make one and show me that it works," Musk says. "Then tell me what's wrong with it and how it can be fixed."<p>What he'll invest: $4 million over two years for a working prototype<p>Send your pitch to: mbb@spacex.com. -- M.V.C.

&#62; the second model will be a sporty four door family car at roughly half the $89k price point of the Tesla Roadster and the third model will be even more affordable<p>Tesla cars so far have definitely been luxury cars. If they keep going downmarket into the mainstream, I wonder if they'll want to create a separate brand for their mainstream stuff, a la acura/honda, toyota/lexus, and infiniti/nissan.<p>If they do, the low-end brand should be "Edison".

Can anyone point me toward Musk's reasoning about why solar will beat out wind power in the long term? I know he owns a solar company, but why did he choose that over wind?<p>(I'm aware of the basic pros and cons of both. I'm really just looking for Musk's thinking.)

Nothing builds credibility like doing what you said you would. =)

"Without giving away too much, I can say that the second model will be a sporty four door family car at roughly half the $89k price point of the Tesla Roadster."<p>A Model S for $45K? Where do I sign? The average selling price of a Model S is probably more like $90K.

&#62; However, let’s assume for the moment that the electricity is generated from a hydrocarbon source like natural gas, the most popular fuel for new US power plants in recent years.<p>Above statement is mostly true in state of California where natural gas generates one third of its total power (source: <a href="http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/total_system_power.html" rel="nofollow">http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/total_system_power.h...</a>)<p>Not so true national wide. According to US Energy Administration, the energy sources and percent share of total for electricity generation in 2011. Note the the combined renewable energy sources is below 10% still in 2011.<p>• Coal 42%<p>• Natural Gas 25%<p>• Nuclear 19%<p>• Hydropower 8%<p>• Other Renewable 5%<p>• Biomass 1.38%<p>• Geothermal 0.41%<p>• Solar 0.04%<p>• Wind 2.92%<p>• Petroleum 1%<p>• Other Gases &#60; 1%<p>(source: <a href="http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&#38;t=3" rel="nofollow">http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&#38;t=3</a>)<p>Coal is still the king.

I am rooting for Tesla, but if they are counting on a "solar electric economy," that makes me worry. Let's target something practical, like a nuclear/natural gas/solar electric economy.

I am a huge fan of Elon and have a lot of faith in anything he's involve in.<p>I am interested, however, in how this reconciles with the Innovator's Dilemma. He's starting at the top of the market and working his way down.<p>My possible explanation (assuming he will be successful) is:<p>There isn't enough of an existing market to be disrupted for the Innovator's Dilemma to apply. What I would be worried about here is the other electric cars that ARE on the market are on the lower end (comparatively. The Leaf is $23,000 vs Tesla @ $52,000).<p>Nissan is working on using cheaper tech, and then will find ways to improve that cheaper tech versus Tesla using expensive tech and finding ways to make it cheaper.<p>Opinions?

(2006) on the title please.

Not that he's presumably anywhere near the end of his life - but does Tesla or SpaceX have a contingency plan should something happen to Elon Musk? Don't get me wrong - I absolutely love everything they're doing. It just scares the crap out of me that such a grand movement opposing very powerful forces is led by a single individual. Please tell me there's more brilliant leaders with the same mindset involved in his mission, ready to take the reins should the need ever arise.

I find it incredible how one many seems to be driving such a change in the future of our planet. Considering people have apparently been putting time and money in to this for decades, why are we not seeing more attempts like this? Is it because it's not considered lucrative enough for the capitalist market? Or is Elon just a very good at convincing us (me) he's breaking new ground?

Hybrid vs EV: .56 vs 1.14 km/mj.<p>Xprise 100 mpg winner seriously considered EV but won with Gas engine. Where's the discrepancy? At least Germany is a good case study in the feasibility Of a solar electric infrastructure. I thought diesel/ hybrid is best bet but it's good musk is here pushing the envelope.

Secret: One of the reasons I want to get a good job is so I can afford a Tesla... Don't tell anyone.

Assuming all observed warming is anthropogenic, the amount of global warming caused by the cumulatie emissions of all of America's cars ever: 1/40th of 1 degree Centigrade.

Richard A. Muller, Nobel Prize in Physics, posted an short article on energy efficiency and pollution in gasoline, hybrid, and pure battery powered cars. Gasoline vs best battery powered car is a factor of 40.The only car has zero pollution is the hydrogen powered.<p><a href="http://muller.lbl.gov/teaching/physics10/old%20physics%2010/physics%2010%20notes/Electric%20cars%20.html" rel="nofollow">http://muller.lbl.gov/teaching/physics10/old%20physics%2010/...</a>

How rare is lithium for lithium ion batteries? And how recyclable is it?<p>Should I be buying lithium now to sell it later?

Here is a video documentary by Nat Geo on Tesla, Model S. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvPosSzUGVI" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvPosSzUGVI</a><p>Elon explains the master plan himself.

A CEO who sticks by the grand plan. This is refreshing.

Total man crush on Elon here. He's like a science fiction author except he makes the spaceships for reals instead of writing about them. Meanwhile a large chunk of the entrepreneurs continue to optimize ad delivery and photo sharing (myself included), just sayin.

Yeah, right. He just wants pollution moved from rich areas, where traffic density is located, to poor areas, where power generating stations are located.