TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

Ask HN: What would you do if you knew the future?

18 点作者 rivo大约 16 年前
This is a thought experiment. Let's assume somebody sent you back in time, to the year 1996. Knowing what you know now, you could start companies called Google, Wikipedia, Twitter, Facebook etc. and do everything right from the beginning.<p>Would you succeed?<p>Also, would people like Larry, Sergey, or Mark Zuckerberg be virtually unknown in the tech world?<p>(Surely, there's much more you could do with your knowledge of the future but let's focus on starting companies for now.)

13 条评论

gaius大约 16 年前
<i>you could start companies called Google, Wikipedia, Twitter, Facebook etc. and do everything right from the beginning</i><p>No you couldn't, because you only see these companies from the outside. You might know the idea, but how many search engines, social networks, etc are/were there? Amateurs talk about strategy, professionals discuss logistics.<p>The one valuable piece of knowledge you'd have would be exactly when to jump from the NASDAQ ship.
mseebach大约 16 年前
I'd start a bunch of buzzword-heavy .com's and cash out late 1999. Then I'd go into real estate and cash out in 2007. Then I'd retire.
评论 #570739 未加载
评论 #570696 未加载
Tangurena大约 16 年前
Going back to 1996? With what I know now? I'd try to make a lot less mistakes with the woman I was in love with back then.
mrduncan大约 16 年前
<i>The best way to predict the future is to invent it.</i> - Alan Kay
vorador大约 16 年前
Well, Cassandra (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra</a>) knew the future but no one believed her. It would probably be the same with VCs.
josefresco大约 16 年前
Don't you people watch movies? This never turns out well.<p>Quoting Jeff Goldblum: "Ooh, aah, that's how it always starts, and then later the running and screaming"
Celcius大约 16 年前
I've got no idea but re-coining (or I guess pre-coining) the term web 2.0 into something that doesn't make me cry a bit on the inside every time I or others mention it is pretty high on my list.
zepolen大约 16 年前
I think a lot of success is down to circumstance, right moment, right time, right person and I doubt if you tried to make another Google you'd succeed in the same way.
mattlarge大约 16 年前
I think Zepolen is correct, so much comes down to timing. If you look at a lot of the "successes" that you would want to get there before they were reaching slightly beyond current tech/social environment. For example, Flickr/YouTube were predicated on the fact that storage costs were crashing and end user bandwidth was drastically increasing. You couldn't have created them much earlier.<p>Wikipedia was timed for the explosion of users on the internet allowing for massive crowd sourcing, again you couldn't have gotten there much earlier.<p>The best way to leverage knowledge like that would be to go back and become the world's most prescient VC. Also avoiding the bubble bursting and the current crash would be great.<p>I like the idea of going back and getting myself into a position to work on some of these projects though. being able to be there when they happened would be cool
评论 #570468 未加载
quoderat大约 16 年前
Anything I wanted to.<p>But first, I would get enough money to completely opt out of doing anything like starting companies, worrying about what anyone thinks, etc., and find a lot of land in the middle of nowhere, drop my own fiber link in at vast cost, and ignore the rest of the world as much as I could.
评论 #570646 未加载
rgrieselhuber大约 16 年前
Two chicks. Oh wait.
fiaz大约 16 年前
I would try my hardest to prevent 9/11.
评论 #570631 未加载
评论 #570656 未加载
评论 #570550 未加载
banned_man大约 16 年前
Founding a company would be the wrong way to go about exploiting this time hack. Too much relies on execution, so the possibility for failure is substantial. There is a much easier way to make money if you can time-travel.<p>What I'd do: ask for 30 minutes before I go, and log into Yahoo finance. Find a 2% gainer for each day on the stock market. Each day, move half of my net worth into the gainer (only half as a measure of caution; I might inadvertently alter the future and screw myself). The reason to aim for +2 is to avoid insider trading suspicion; putting my money into a +10 or -20 (shorting) every day would land me in jail; no one would believe I could tell the future because of time travel. Each day, I'd earn a 1% profit.<p>Starting from $10000, I'd get to $10 million within 720 trading days, or about 3 years. At this point, I'd limit my profits to $100k per day because otherwise I'd be at the level where I could actually change the future, eroding my gains. So I'd gain "only" $25m/year for the next decade, cashing out at $250m.