Millennials Lead the Trend to Less Driving. Will It Last?

&#62;It’s not entirely clear, though, exactly why this has happened<p>Really? It's not clear why miles traveled has gone down since 2004? Line up these graphs for the last 10 years [1]. Or perhaps this one [2].<p>Gas prices are at record levels since 2004, and unemployment among the 16-24 year old population has skyrocketed. It's not any wonder why millennials are driving less. They can't <i>afford</i> to drive more. The rising cost of college is putting even more strain on the pocketbooks of the young work force. The article seems to want to attribute this trend to one source and no more than one source. The real world doesn't work that way.<p>[1] <a href="http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx" rel="nofollow">http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx</a><p>[2] <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/12/22/the-global-youth-unemployment-crisis/" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/12/22/the-global-...</a>

I have a license, and my wife has a car, but I don't drive. Haven't, with some exceptions on vacations and long road trips, since about 1998. Having grown up in a rural community where driving was compulsory, I made it a goal, upon moving to a large city to attend University, that I would live close to grocery stores, restaurants, and my workplace so that I could walk and ride my bicycle to work and class. It was a conscious lifestyle choice, and I still adhere to it, 15 years later.<p>Side benefits are immense. I walk or ride somewhere in the neighborhood of 700 miles each year. Overall, the pedestrian commute energizes me in the morning, and helps me quickly recover and decompress at the end of the day. The money that would otherwise go into a second vehicle, fuel, insurance, and maintenance instead goes toward higher quality food.

With expensive safety features and the increasing cost of college, we are no longer in a world where most middle-class teenagers could realistically save up for and purchase a (reasonably safe) car. My parents wouldn't want me in something without a strong frame, airbags, ABS, and traction control. That puts the minimum cost of safe car at more like $5,000 than $500.<p>If I ever see that much money in one place (I haven't), it'll go straight to my tuition bill. No way could my family justify spending that much on my entertainment. And even if it never needed repairs, I doubt I'd break even on driving to a minimum-wage job for 2-3 years.<p>Owning and taking pride in our cars is not a part of life for teenagers in my town like it was for my parents in the 60s and 70s. Things have changed, and I think college and car ownership costs are a major factor.

Also: In 2010, the median marriage age was over 26 for women and over 28 for men. More and more young people are staying in cities, where cars are much less necessary.<p><a href="http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/09/next-big-question-facing-cities-will-millennials-stay/3229/" rel="nofollow">http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/09/ne...</a>

I'm a Millennial. I went to college in a city, and happened to just stay (halfly because I'm sick of suburbia). I use public transit to go everywhere. I make enough money to buy a car, but I don't need it.

Sure it'll last. Until they have children.

In the unknowable category, it seems like the availability of self-driving cars will drastically change the cost-benefits ratio of driving and could easily lead to a dramatic increase. Are you really going to want to fly from San Francisco to Los Angeles, spending 2+ hours in transit time, when you could get in your personal car, browse the internet or read a newspaper for the 6 hours you'd spend driving?<p>I strongly suspect that any theories that we will be driving less will go out the window in the next decade or two.

Will they also lead the trend in riding in cars that drive themselves?

I hope so. Clearer roads for those of us who like driving. Vrrrrooom!