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Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust (2005)

32 点作者 jwallaceparker将近 12 年前

7 条评论

nkoren将近 12 年前
Bernanke was delusional, but others saw the bubble for what it was. Four months months earlier, in The Economist: "The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops. [...] According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history."[1]<p>There's been a narrative developing lately that none of the mainstream economists saw the crash coming. This is not true; plenty of them did. But their message did not appeal to incumbent politicians, and so it was ignored.<p>1: <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/4079027?story_id=4079027" rel="nofollow">http://www.economist.com/node/4079027?story_id=4079027</a>
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hkmurakami将近 12 年前
(I know that what I'm writing here is ludicrous but...)<p>I wonder if a fed chairman who does foresee financial bubbles collapsing would actually be able to say so publicly. The fed is supposed to be immune from lobbying and political forces <i>in theory</i>, but I wonder what the chances are for someone to bow to the social pressures and pretend like everything is just toally fine.<p>In fact, how long has it been since we've had a high ranking federal reserve official actually forecast economic doom? I'm not saying that such officers will <i>never</i> say something negative when the public signals are all green lights, but I can't help but think that there is <i>some</i> skew towards optimism in public comments.
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don_draper将近 12 年前
Search Youtube for 'Peter Schiff was right'. It's entertaining to watch the people who laughed at him in 2006.
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anon987将近 12 年前
You know where I go for my armchair macro-economic analysis? Hacker News.<p>Flagged.
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teeja将近 12 年前
Either he's a complete fool, or he hadn't heard about the massive RE fraud the FBI had begun reporting taking place all over the country, or he knew damn well what and why.<p>Take your choice. Small wonder that prices were rising like crazy (how can that -not-be a bubble? given the history of RE prices over the previous century) when anyone with a pulse could get a loan. And oh how they got away with it.
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ignostic将近 12 年前
Nice find, and not just for the obviously wrong side of it. I've heard it argued that the housing bubble was somehow "unforeseeable" and that "no one saw it coming."<p>&#62;<i>"Many economists argue that house prices have risen too far too fast in many markets, forming a bubble that could rapidly collapse and trigger an economic downturn"</i>
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rafski将近 12 年前
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied."<p>Otto von Bismarck<p>(also attributed to others as is every good quote)