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Moore's Law Dead by 2022, Expert Says

14 点作者 lacero超过 11 年前

7 条评论

H3g3m0n超过 11 年前
Moore&#x27;s law only states that the number of transistors doubles for a specific size of silicon every 1.5 years.<p>When it does end, we will move onto other forms of computing, memristor based, graphene, photonic&#x2F;optical, quantum (only really useful for some classes of problems), spintronics and such. Might have a bit of a dip off during the change over but then it will be business as usual.<p>We could start to see computers with more and more processors in them. The cost of producing a processor should continue to drop. Energy efficiency, (reduced heat) and cooling improved systems will keep being developed. So maybe we will end up with computers that are almost a solid mass of processors. That scalability isn&#x27;t fantastic though, but it would work for maybe 10 years. Things like FPGA coprocessors could also help.<p>Finally we can look at breaking away from the current paradigms of computer science into esoteric things like biological&#x2F;dna computing.<p>Most desktop systems are as fast as most people will ever need them. Remember now days all they are doing is opening a webbrowser and going to Facebook. The UI&#x27;s keep getting more and more simplified.<p>Graphics in games is about the most demanding thing that happens on a desktop, which will likely keep going for some time until we have photo-realistic, realtime raytracing at retina DPIs on large screens, in 3D (maybe with voxels for some kind of future volumetric display).
scoofy超过 11 年前
As a student of analytic philosophy, this has always caused much confusion when talking to students of logic without a philosophical background. Gordon Earle Moore, of Moore&#x27;s law, is incredibly frequently confused with George Edward Moore, of the &quot;here is one hand&quot; proof of an external world.<p>Part of me will be happy when G.E. Moore (George) get&#x27;s a little more attention.
jpwright超过 11 年前
Of course Moore&#x27;s Law will end eventually, but that doesn&#x27;t mean that improvements in processor technology won&#x27;t come from somewhere other than transistor density. Most likely, we&#x27;ll see 2x+ improvements from one or more of graphene transistors, 3D chips, optical circuits, quantum computing...
lacero超过 11 年前
The five performance bottlenecks: algorithms, programming language or compiler, operating system, processor, I&#x2F;O system and devices.<p>One almost down I&#x27;m sure the I&#x2F;O system will reach a wall soon as well. Only thing left is to optimize the software.
rbanffy超过 11 年前
While Moore&#x27;s Law clearly cannot go on forever, everyone in this trade should remember its end was prophesized many times before, every time backed up by good science.<p>Time will tell.
mullingitover超过 11 年前
Ten years ago I was hearing that it was going to be dead before 2010, I think I&#x27;ll continue to take these types of claims with a grain of salt.
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lurkinggrue超过 11 年前
Again?