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Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change

47 点作者 clarkm超过 11 年前

15 条评论

aethr超过 11 年前
It&#x27;s worth noting that the IPCC is considered by some to be too conservative in its estimates [1].<p>Just before they released their 2007 report, a paper was published in Science comparing the predictions from the 2001 report with actual changes in global temperature and sea level. [2] While the 2001 report had forecasted a rise in temperature of 0.15C - 0.35C, the actual rise over that period was 0.33C. Meanwhile the rise in sea level over that period exceeded the IPCC&#x27;s predicted maximums.<p>So while the IPCC may be &quot;dialing back&quot; their predictions, they do have a known tendency to err on the side of conservatism.<p>[1] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change#Conservative_nature_of_IPCC_reports" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Clim...</a><p>[2] <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6321351.stm" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.bbc.co.uk&#x2F;2&#x2F;hi&#x2F;science&#x2F;nature&#x2F;6321351.stm</a>
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acqq超过 11 年前
Author: <i>because of changing definitions, it is not easy to compare the two reports, but retreat it is.</i><p>Note how unmathematical this approach is. The whole premse of the article and the content are: &quot;There are different numbers, some strange qualifiers in front of them which changed but which I&#x27;ll ignore, but because I compare just the numbers, they are smaller than before so we can happily continue with global warming.&quot;<p>The facts are different.<p><a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=todays-climate-change-proves-much-faster-than-changes-in-past-65-million-years" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.scientificamerican.com&#x2F;article.cfm?id=todays-clim...</a><p><i>To hold the temperature increase to about 1.5 degrees, the globe would need to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050, and then have negative emissions.</i><p>The author&#x27;s article ignores the timeframes too, like it doesn&#x27;t matter at all.
dizzystar超过 11 年前
I never knew what to think of the whole Climate Change thing. I consider myself a careful skeptic, going on the assumption that the science is much too large to put together. Although I never really questioned the idea that there is evidence of warming or man-made warming, I always questioned the the stated impact.<p>I&#x27;ve always felt that much of what was presented to us was exaggerated, and I&#x27;ve always felt strongly that the climate scientists were too closely bound to politics, and thus whatever truth was found was obscured by rhetoric. There was also several solutions presented that skated well past the line of absurdity. [1]<p>Here&#x27;s to hoping that the climate panels have learned from the mistakes of their past and begin to offer truly critical and balanced opinions, no longer employing scare-tactics.<p>The hard-core pro-CC crowd accused me of being all sorts of things I am not, such as a wasteful litterbox. Actually, I purchase very few things and certainly never buy Palm Oil or other items that are environmentally destructive. I don&#x27;t use plastic bags, and I don&#x27;t drive a car.<p>In regards to this article, I still don&#x27;t know what to think. I really wish the report itself would come out before the media jumps all over it and destroys the meaning of this paper, as it is rather important. If the report does say this, I would wonder what changes have occurred in the climate thinking and world to wheel back this much.<p>[1]<a href="http://www.treehugger.com/culture/hose-to-the-sky-still-spewing-so2-idea-to-stop-global-warming.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.treehugger.com&#x2F;culture&#x2F;hose-to-the-sky-still-spew...</a>
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quink超过 11 年前
I&#x27;m sorry, but this is just stupid.<p>&gt; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Ridley" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Matt_Ridley</a> and <a href="http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Matt_Ridley" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sourcewatch.org&#x2F;index.php?title=Matt_Ridley</a><p>If you want to have an idea as to his economic credentials, he&#x27;s, in a nutshell, responsible for the first bank run in the UK in about 130 years.<p>Here are just the effects of the state I live in: <a href="http://www.climatechange.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science/climate-change-impacts/queensland" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.climatechange.gov.au&#x2F;climate-change&#x2F;climate-scien...</a>
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threeseed超过 11 年前
To say that the benefits of increased vegetation outweighs the rise in sea levels and summer temperatures is breathtaking in its stupidity and cruelty. The people who are the most affected by climate change are the poorest and least able to relocate. In which way does humanity benefit if millions die in Africa and South East Asia whilst wealthy industrialists get to farm further north than previously.<p>It&#x27;s also bizarre to be thinking so short term. So we benefit if there is a 1.2 degree increase in the next 70 years. What about the 70 years after that, and after that ?
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chrismealy超过 11 年前
Matt Ridley should stick to blowing up banks and leave the climate alone.<p><a href="http://www.monbiot.com/2010/06/01/the-man-who-wants-to-northern-rock-the-planet/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.monbiot.com&#x2F;2010&#x2F;06&#x2F;01&#x2F;the-man-who-wants-to-north...</a>
gavanwoolery超过 11 年前
I&#x27;m not really a scientist, so I can&#x27;t take any sides here, but I would like to point out a few things (make your own rational judgments). I do know the true principles of science, if little about its practice. Real science is unbiased. Everyone in these threads seems to get so heated that their &quot;side&quot; is right (I&#x27;ve been guilty of it as well, its an easy trap to fall into). Well, real science does not care about sides, it cares about boiling down a system of variables into a probable hypothesis. Even the most likely hypotheses have been shattered - I&#x27;m not saying that is the case, but sometimes climatology feels more like faith than science. Real science aims to prove its results wrong, not to prove them right.<p>Climatology&#x2F;meteorology&#x2F;etc are actually very difficult types of science because you cannot simple put the earth in a confined test area where you can tweak the variables on a small level. Yes, we all know that increase in CO2 = increase in greenhouse effect, that is child&#x27;s science and not a real question. The real question is how much impact do human beings really have on the atmosphere, and to what degree should we change our behavior (if at all) based on that? There are so many variables that are difficult to predict (or even determine in realtime) - the sun&#x27;s energy output, how much CO2 gets processed by trees, how much CO2 gets trapped in the upper atmosphere (it happens, despite it being heavier than other types of atmosphere), underwater volcanic activity, and so forth. That, and try doing a thermodynamic simulation at earth&#x27;s scale - the best we can do is very crudely rough it. That said, there is no reason we should trash our environment just because we don&#x27;t know what is going on - there are a million reasons to gravitate towards clean energy (in particular, sustainable energy).<p>All I can say is, if you are a real scientist, constantly question your own beliefs, don&#x27;t fight for them.
lisper超过 11 年前
Given that the WSJ is owned by Rupert Murdoch, I would recommend taking anything it says about climate change with a giant hunk o&#x27; sodium chloride.
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rxp超过 11 年前
Politicians like Matt Ridley can say what they like. I&#x27;ll believe that things have changed when experts in the field begin to say so, and not a moment sooner.
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znowi超过 11 年前
Climate Change (rebranded Global Warming) is such a heated and controversial topic, including in academia, that turns decent people into crazed maniacs (think of Apple or sport team fans). I suggest to stay away from it until something conclusive emerges from the study.
ryguytilidie超过 11 年前
Here is my thought on climate change, and something each party overlooks while paying scientists to do research that supports their point. Lets just pretend that hypothetically, we are 100% sure global warming is not caused by human-manufactured pollution. With that being the case, what do we do? Take off pollution controls? Turn every city into a place where you need to wear a mask to breathe? If you&#x27;ve ever been to Shanghai or even Los Angeles it is pretty obvious there are problems with pollution beyond damaging the ozone. Personally, I think that millions of people being able to actually breathe is more important than chemical company x stock price going up because they didn&#x27;t have to &quot;waste&quot; money on proper disposal and soot filters...<p>The fact that we get bogged down in a discussion of whether the ozone is being damaged and overlook whether our lungs are being damaged just blows my mind.
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spinlock超过 11 年前
I just wanted to point out that the author is a politician and not a scientist. Also, the globe has warmed by 6-8 degrees F since the last ice age. The temperature difference that the author considers &quot;beneficial&quot; is the difference between Manhattan being a vibrant city and being buried under a mile of ice.
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thesis超过 11 年前
It must be because of all of those carbon credits people purchase.
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brohoolio超过 11 年前
Anyone else think it&#x27;s weird how when you click on the WSJ link it drops you three links deep into WSJ?<p>I imagine most folks use new tabs, but this was kind of weird trying to back button out of the WSJ site.
ris超过 11 年前
I invite people to read a bit of background information on Matt Ridley before they read this article.
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