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World With New Limits: The Coming End of Moore's Law

11 点作者 plessthanpt05超过 11 年前

7 条评论

leokun超过 11 年前
The end of Moore's Law is like the Voyager leaves the solar system kind of post that just keeps repeating ad infinitum on HN. There are real drawbacks to popular upvotes as means to populate the homepage feed. I hope someday someone figures this out.
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eloff超过 11 年前
Actually, I expect Moore&#x27;s law to speed up. Yes Moore&#x27;s law will end at some point, (in fact physics would tell us it must end this century) but it won&#x27;t end with the death of the silicon transistor and it won&#x27;t play out the way people seem to think.<p>Without the ability to keep shrinking silicon transistors, the industry will innovate in new directions. Eventually (perhaps after a period of relative stagnation in Moore&#x27;s law.) they will hit on something that is economical and that allows further scaling (graphene? who knows?) and that&#x27;s when things get really interesting. We&#x27;ve been using the same technology for a long time now with predictable, incremental improvements in shrinking the process. When we switch to a wildly new technology with wildly new characteristics and limits we&#x27;re likely to see some order of magnitude improvements. It&#x27;s this exciting transition period that will result, in my estimation, in not just the fastest growth of in the speed of new processors and memory, but a general uptick in the rate of innovation in the industry in general. We&#x27;ve gotten too comfortable with silicon for too long. Change is in the air.
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MAGZine超过 11 年前
Also coming: the heat death of the universe.<p>I&#x27;m not saying that it&#x27;s not far off, but the only thing I care to hear about Moores law is when it is finally obsolete. There are more interesting things to write articles about.
Filligree超过 11 年前
So what this is saying is that there are limits to how far you can push photo-lithography. Maybe. Yes, it&#x27;s probably true, but as for how relevant that is...<p>I&#x27;d like to point out that there&#x27;s an existence proof for putting the power of ~some very large supercomputer into the space of a human head, running off a hundred watts or so.<p>I am, of course, referring to the brain itself. It&#x27;s a very different sort of architecture, that&#x27;s true, but does anyone really think we&#x27;ll stop before we get close to that?
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mathattack超过 11 年前
Am I the only one who thinks we don&#x27;t need Moore&#x27;s Law anymore? The game has moved from computing to communication.
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ChikkaChiChi超过 11 年前
Adolescent technology can be optimized according to Moore&#x27;s Law but Intel and other company&#x27;s started moving the goal posts after the Pentium 4.
devx超过 11 年前
Why is it so hard to understand that &quot;Moore&#x27;s Law&quot; is coming to an end - for silicon chips at least?<p>The point of these stories is that we&#x27;re getting to transistors being as big as atoms, and I think that&#x27;s happening roughly around 2-3nm for silicon.<p>Whether we&#x27;ll still be able to improve performance for &quot;computers&quot;, by switching to graphene transistors, which even if we can&#x27;t shrink those anymore, we could maybe &quot;optimize&quot; and harvest all the performance from a graphene transistor. But that is probably going to keep us another 10 years or so.<p>There aren&#x27;t that many ways out - until we start making quantum computers, and hopefully silicon and graphene transistors will hold us until then.
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