Dalio has also written papers on this and related topics [0]. Originally, there were three separate papers, but it looks like they've been combined in to a new draft. The three main sections:<p>* How the Economic Machine Works<p>* Debt Cycles: Leveragings & Deleveragings<p>* Productivity: Why Countries Succeed & Fail Over the Long Term<p>[0] <a href="http://www.bwater.com/home/research--press/how-the-economic-machine-works.aspx" rel="nofollow">http://www.bwater.com/home/research--press/how-the-economic-...</a>