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Map: These are the cities that climate change will hit first

53 点作者 stevekinney超过 11 年前

12 条评论

jliechti1超过 11 年前
Didn&#x27;t see this in the article - the paper is entitled &quot;The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability&quot;.<p>Direct link: <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7470/pdf/nature12540.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nature.com&#x2F;nature&#x2F;journal&#x2F;v502&#x2F;n7470&#x2F;pdf&#x2F;nature12...</a><p>From the methods summary section:<p>They used the projections of seven climate variables: near-surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, surface sensible heat flux, and ocean surface pH.<p>&quot;For each model and variable, we used the period 1860-2005 from the historical experiment (the longest time span common to all models), to establish the historical bounds of climate variability. The projections...[were used] to simulate the period 2006-2100...to identify the year at which mean annual values of a given variable would exceed historical bounds.&quot;<p>&quot;In total, for all variables and experiments, we processed 89,712 years of data comprising 1,076,544 monthly global maps, interpolated to an equal-area grid with a resolution of 100 km.&quot;<p>I think the 9 in 1960-2005 must be a typo. Everything is 1860 in the study.
joshuahedlund超过 11 年前
We can&#x27;t even accurately project the lower bounds of average global temperature variation more than a couple decades out[0], but we can determine the lower bounds of individual cities several decades out?<p>[0]<a href="http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.economist.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;science-and-technology&#x2F;2157446...</a>
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vanderZwan超过 11 年前
This title is very misleading, in a way. It&#x27;s not like there will be some magical treshold after which a city is magically &quot;hit&quot; by climate change. All the date indicates is the following:<p>&gt; <i>A city hits &quot;climate departure&quot; when the average temperature of its coolest year from then on is projected to be warmer than the average temperature of its hottest year between 1960 and 2005.</i><p>It&#x27;s a gradual change that is already happening, and there&#x27;s plenty of other side-effects of climate change that will be notable long before this artificially defined tipping point is reached.
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mikeash超过 11 年前
It&#x27;s quite amazing and sad to see the deniers come out in droves in these comments. The political forces against climate science have done <i>such</i> a good job at spreading disinformation, it really is impressive.<p>I wonder if this is what it was like in the mid-1900s when the science for the dangers of tobacco was starting to really solidify and the tobacco companies were running full-bore to discredit it.
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jasonkester超过 11 年前
The nice thing about computer models is that you get to keep changing them to move out the point where the world is definitely going to end this time for real. Surely at least one of those cities was scheduled for &quot;climate departure&quot; before 2013, back in the 90s when we decided to start panicking about this.<p>Somebody bookmark this so that we can refer back to it in 2025, when the same model predicts the same thing to start happening in 2040.
swamp40超过 11 年前
The spot where I am sitting (near Chicago) has been under 100+ feet of glacial ice at least four times in the past - most recently less than 20,000 years ago.<p>As a reasonable thinking person, I see no reason not to expect that to happen again some day.<p>The possibility of another ice age scares me <i>much</i> more than any effects from AGW.<p>Here&#x27;s what the US and Canada looked like 20,000 years ago: <a href="http://faculty.ccc.edu/jtassin/geology201/homework/Chicagogeo/imagesCG/glacxt.gif" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;faculty.ccc.edu&#x2F;jtassin&#x2F;geology201&#x2F;homework&#x2F;Chicagoge...</a>
nmeofthestate超过 11 年前
The interesting thing here is how &#x27;if the world can substantially bring down carbon dioxide emissions&#x27;, the result will be a quite minor change in outcomes (at least using this unusual departure &#x27;milestone&#x27;).<p>For example, highlighted in the article: Washington DC&#x27;s 2069 climate if we do nothing will be the same as Washington DC&#x27;s 2071 climate if we &#x27;substantially bring down carbon dioxide emissions&#x27;.<p>According to the article this result is &quot;significantly mitigat[ing] the effects of climate change&quot;.<p>The expenditure that moves that date 2 years is going to be astronomical. I WANT to be convinced that these measures make sense, but so far it all seems very flaky (not climate change - what we&#x27;re doing about it).
SeanDav超过 11 年前
It used to be &quot;Global Warming&quot;, but when that label didn&#x27;t fit very well with the observed results, the label somehow became &quot;Climate Change&quot;.<p>This is a clever bit of public manipulation because who can argue against the fact that climate is changing....
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mipapage超过 11 年前
&quot;The projected timing of climate departure&quot;: <a href="http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/mora/PublicationsCopyRighted/Data.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.soc.hawaii.edu&#x2F;mora&#x2F;PublicationsCopyRighted&#x2F;Data....</a><p>Found via the Nature article. More data, less hype.
colanderman超过 11 年前
<i>A city hits &quot;climate departure&quot; when the average temperature of its coolest year from then on is projected to be warmer than the average temperature of its hottest year between 1960 and 2005. [...] Put another way, every single year after 2047 will be hotter than D.C.&#x27;s hottest year on record from 1860 to 2005. It&#x27;s the moment when the old &quot;normal&quot; is really gone.</i><p>Well, which is it, 1960-2005 or 1860-2005?
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graycat超过 11 年前
Yes, yes, yes, the solution is from the Mayans -- kill people to pour their blood on a rock to keep the planet from getting too hot.<p>Right: WaPo is continuing to flog this old horse, trying to keep it going as a long list of stories easy to write for nearly automatic eyeballs and easy ad revenue.
rayiner超过 11 年前
I love how a discussion of climate change brings out all the armchair scientists. Who knew HN had so many lurking PhD&#x27;s?
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