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Tens of billions of potentially habitable, Earth-size planets in our galaxy

63 点作者 atpaino超过 11 年前

14 条评论

JonSkeptic超过 11 年前
&gt;One in five stars in our galaxy like the Sun have planets about the size of Earth and a surface temperature conducive to life<p>That is a considerable claim that jars with most of the astronomical data I&#x27;ve seen. 1 in 5 is far more probable, perhaps an order of magnitude more probable than I&#x27;ve previously heard.<p>Does anyone have studies that corroborate their claim?<p>[EDIT] Later in the article data is cited that more closely matches what I&#x27;ve heard.<p>&gt;Independently, Petigura, Howard and Marcy focused on the 42,000 stars that are like the sun or slightly cooler and smaller, and found 603 candidate planets orbiting them. Only 10 of these were Earth-size, that is, one to two times the diameter of Earth and orbiting their star at a distance where they are heated to lukewarm temperatures suitable for life.<p>It makes for a much less sensationalist title, but it seems to have more research behind it.<p>Over all, I would question the method that caused them to arrive at the 22% idea. I&#x27;m not sure that they are accounting for the missed planets correctly; if they are, I would like to see their estimates corroborated.<p>[EDIT 2] Thank you, Tuna-Fish. Typo corrected.
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Diederich超过 11 年前
In my mind, Fermi&#x27;s Paradox looms very large.<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Fermi_paradox</a>
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ceejayoz超过 11 年前
I&#x27;ve seen this reported as 2 (<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/nov/04/planets-galaxy-life-kepler" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;2013&#x2F;nov&#x2F;04&#x2F;planets-galax...</a>) and 8.8 (<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/study-88-billion-earth-sized-planets-20780752" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;abcnews.go.com&#x2F;Technology&#x2F;wireStory&#x2F;study-88-billion-...</a>) billion this week. Anyone know why the wildly different numbers being reported for the same research?<p>I&#x27;m also curious about Earth-sized moons around gas giants in the habitable zone.
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Tossrock超过 11 年前
I submitted the actual study for this yesterday and got no traction :\ <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6679443" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=6679443</a>
melling超过 11 年前
Unfortunately every single one of them is unreachable within several lifetimes. We&#x27;re going to be pretty much trapped in our solar system until we try to solve some of the more difficult problems.
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samoht超过 11 年前
1&#x2F;5 seems to be the accepted number doing the rounds, but there must be other factors to consider too - I&#x27;m sure this number is still overoptimistic?<p>For example..how many of these habitable exoplanets also do the following earth things<p>1. Rotate around their axis as opposed to having one side facing the star.<p>2. have a stabilising moon to stop them from wobbling about.<p>3. Also how many of these exo solar sytems similarly have heavier elements and have evolved from spent star dust - using spent supernova explosions? To have enough water you need H and enough O<p>Some other important considerations that should perhaps be factored in?<p>The Earth went through a couple of &quot;snowball-earth events&quot; which resulted in a healthy % of oxygen being made available in the atmosphere.<p>We also have an outerlying and right-sized Jupiter to sweep away most of the asteroids and space debris.<p>Even with all the luck in the world, intelligent life only involved in the last million years of our 4 billion year plus Earth history... and we needed an asteroid, the right size again, to wipe out the dominant dinosaurs so that the evolutionary stage was set for our homo sapien species.<p>How much of this is repeatable?<p>We may indeed be the only intelligent life in our galaxy.
nikcub超过 11 年前
I&#x27;m curious as to what is next, now that Kepler is dead what do we do to substantiate this data further?<p>My impression is that there is not much more we can do to confirm outside of the statistical models giving us probabilities, it would take some much more advanced detection tech (or traveling there) to get further, which means we might be stuck at this point for a little while.
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codeboost超过 11 年前
But let&#x27;s say what we really hope for is true. What if we somehow discover that a large number of these planets are teaming with life ? What then ? How would that help us ? Spiritually, economically ? Wouldn&#x27;t that make us feel even less significant ?<p>I&#x27;m just wondering, why are we hoping there is life out there and what would we do if we find it ?
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VLM超过 11 年前
I look forward to the discussion revolving around the concept of ten billion inhabited worlds colliding with the prevailing HN wisdom that the only place to do tech in the known universe is SV.<p>That&#x27;s nice that you want to do tech, but if you stay on flyover Tatooine you&#x27;ll never work on anything more modern than a moisture vaporator, better boot up the x-wing and fly to SV back on old Earth if you want to get paid to do stuff with jquery.
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w_t_payne超过 11 年前
This raises the obvious question .... Where <i>is</i> everybody?<p>It&#x27;s like we were born on the Marie Celeste; a place that should clearly be brimming with intelligent life, yet appears (on the face of it) to be an empty desert.<p>The more we learn that the extent to which the galaxy is chock-a-block with habitable worlds, yet apparently devoid of intelligent life, the more I get a truly creeped-out feeling that we are living in some horror-movie galaxy where <i>something</i> is killing <i>everything</i>.
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cschmidt超过 11 年前
This news reminded me of Carl Sagan&#x27;s Cosmos episode about the Drake Equation (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Drake_equation</a>) that I watched as a kid. It is really an improved estimate for a couple of the terms.<p>That segment of Cosmos is online: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlikCebQSlY" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=MlikCebQSlY</a>
carsongross超过 11 年前
&quot;Where is everybody?&quot;<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Fermi_paradox</a>
samoht超过 11 年前
re: my previous post - I realize that 1&#x2F;5 is for &quot;potentially habitable&quot; ... but I was thinking too far ahead. What I was trying to get at is what factor would we then need to multiply it (ie., this 1&#x2F;5th) with to make intelligent life a mathematical&#x2F;chemical&#x2F;biological certainty - as we know it here on earth, for example.<p>Was what happened on earth - us - a unique fluke - would intelligent life still come about if reran the whole thing 1000 times, even here on earth, where it was almost an after-thought?<p>Are there other pathways - sliding doors - that would still have brought about intelligent life here on earth?<p>What if we didn&#x27;t have a magnetic field or if there was no Ozone? - that was another thing I left out before.<p>We may be a fluke - the end result of a set of rare and unrepeatable circumstances?
strikespeed超过 11 年前
I&#x27;m only surprised that astronomers haven&#x27;t concluded this long ago... Speaking of which, there has been a lot of these new astro sightings this year. Did they do something to the Kepler? I thought that spacetelescope was abandoned due to technical problems. What am I missing?
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