Within few weeks we have seen value of a bitcoin first reach $500 and now it is approaching $1000. So, according to you what will be the value of bitcoin after 6 months? Do you see it going up or down? Why?
At this point, I think that only catastrophic technological failure can drive it below $100. It's hard for me to think through the socio-economic dynamic that leads there otherwise.<p>I can certainly imagine it going to $300-$500, but there are just so many people that want to buy at that range, I think the walls are too steep to go further.
I wonder if a poll is the best forecasting device; it seems almost axiomatic that a prediction market [1] would be a superior solution.<p>On the other hand; I'm guessing that you might stir a bit of controversy if you were to set up a futures market where you offered people the chance to make an offer of how much they would pay for a bitcoin delivered a year from now; and others to post offers for how much they would need to be paid to _guarantee_ delivery of a bitcoin a year from now...<p>Just remember that it's all fun and games until the government [2] steps in.<p>1. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_markets" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_markets</a><p>2. <a href="http://www.cftc.gov/index.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.cftc.gov/index.htm</a>
6 months, not sure. Probably less than 100. Bitcoin is certainly interesting, but there's absolutely nothing backing it. Doesn't seem much different to me than pokemon/baseball cards/pet rocks. Once the novelty wears off, or one of the big players cashes out, we'll see it crash.
I have a fundamental issue with bitcoins that I have not seen anyone address. Sooner or later a better bitcoin will be invented. One that can perform transactions faster, or is more anonymous or where mining for the coin helps some nice project (SETI@home, math proofs, protein folding, etc), or something completely different. When an alternative better currency catches on, at some point it will become obvious that bitcoins will be obsolete and the value should suddenly be 0 again.<p>It is the nature of technology that bitcoins will someday become MySpace.<p>I am open to be convinced otherwise by someone knowledgeable.
A few months ago, before the current wave of hype started, I got the historical price data on bitcoin and ran Eureqa on it, which is a program that tries to find the simplest possible equation that fits the data. Not for any practical reason, I was just testing the software. I extrapolated the result forward in time a few months ahead to see what it predicted, and it showed it increasing in price exponentially.<p>I was disappointed because I thought that was ridiculous and that I must have overfit somehow.
There's many reasons these polls are unscientific, but I think one of the most glaring issues that could be easily corrected is it tells you the results before you vote which naturally influences how people think about their answer.
I think 'lil Wayne got the answer predicted out: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5G4hZOJSng" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5G4hZOJSng</a>