How to spot people who are talking out of their armpit? They're engaging in prophecy about the future, that's how.<p>Nobody has any clue what the future holds, let alone the one of bitcoin. Everybody has a guess of course, but that's it, a guess.<p>Now some guesses are more educated, and others are less so, but that doesn't make them any less or more likely to come to pass.<p>But somebody will incidentially be right. Now it could be this guy, or it could be not. Nobody really knows.<p>As to when it comes to guesses about bitcoin, it'd be particularly important not to play the blind & elephant game (it's a commodity! No, it's a currency! No, it's a payment system! No it's a store of value! No it's an accounting ledger! No, it's a p2p network! No, it's a protocol! etc.). That is, you can't comment on an aspect of bitcoin and derive your entire guess from that, while ignoring all other aspects of bitcoin. You're free to base your guess upon that basis, but it's quite likely that in this case, your guess does indeed have a lower likelyhood to hit the mark.