The end of the Facebook era

153 点作者 chrysb超过 11 年前

44 条评论

melling超过 11 年前

Here are some titles for the next story."The end of the Apple era""The end of the Microsoft era""The end of the Netflix era""The end of the Yahoo era"Seriously, why do people waste time writing these types of stories? My guess is that it's because it's so much easier than actually trying to build something of value. The real problem is there is no penalty for being wrong. Everyone simply forgets. Write a thousand stories and if just one of them is right then you get to claim your genius.Where are those guys who predicated that Apple Stores were such a stupid idea? We need to start keeping score.<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2001-05-20/commentary-sorry-steve-heres-why-apple-stores-wont-work" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2001-05-20/commentary-so...</a>

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crazygringo超过 11 年前

> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections.I've heard it a billion times that teens aren't using Facebook. But who cares? I just don't see any evidence that this heralds the end of Facebook.It's not necessarily any more meaningful than "people ages 65-70 don't use Facebook". It's a small percentage of the population. And there's no indication that teens are using something else that will replace Facebook when they're in their 20's and 30's -- you can't organize parties on Instagram or Snapchat. Every indication is that teens get onto Facebook once they stop being teens, correct me if I'm wrong.Can we stop talking about this ineffable "cool" factor, until there's any kind of evidence that it is actually necessary for Facebook's continued success? I mean, I don't remember Facebook ever being cool. It's always been pretty drab, a pretty bland boring blue, with an interface much like an OS. But it just works better than the alternatives, and keeps working better. Why people are suddenly constantly talking about this "lack of cool" is beyond me.

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chaz超过 11 年前

An alternate opinion: Facebook is heading toward the Trough of Disillusionment of the Hype Cycle: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle</a>Facebook was so ridiculously hot a few years ago that it couldn't possibly have met all of its expectations for changing how we all communicate, replacing all other messaging mediums, dominating how we shop and buy, the portal for all things entertainment, etc.> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections.This sounds a lot like the Plateau of Productivity to me.

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the_watcher超过 11 年前

>> Teens likely see Facebook the same way the Facebook generation sees LinkedIn – like a utilitarian place to manage connections.This is why the "millennials are leaving Facebook" worry isn't actually real. Yes, middle schoolers and high schoolers aren't using Facebook. They are at a stage in their life where the idea of their parents being able to see into their life is scary. Their social circle is also disproportionately made up of people they can easily see every day. Facebook's utility for contact management, event planning, and keeping in touch doesn't really begin until people turn 18 and go out on their own. This doesn't even begin to touch the ease of using it to sign up for other products that are built on top of it.

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wpietri超过 11 年前

Very interesting. A few years back, I was fascinated to see how much Facebook had become the native medium for the whippersnappers. Some of our interns thought of email like I thought of fax machines.But even if Facebook is prone to stumble, I'd encourage entrepreneurs not to try to be the "next Facebook". As I wrote elsewhere [1]: "Honestly, there probably won't be a 'next Facebook', for the same reason there hasn't been a next Amazon, next Oracle, next Google, or next Apple. There hasn't even been a next Yahoo, because the secret to success for many startups wasn't being another Yahoo, it was being different. Something you should think hard on: Zuckerberg didn't set out to make the next Facebook, or the next anything. He was just making something fun for himself and his fellow Harvard students. It was only when he saw how powerful his creation was that his ambitions increased."This seems especially relevant to me now that I'm seeing ads around San Francisco for two new social networks that are lamely trying to be the next Facebook.[1] <a href="https://www.quora.com/Entrepreneurship/Is-it-foolish-to-go-to-Startup-Weekend-like-events-and-widely-pitch-my-next-Facebook-idea-in-search-of-co-founders/answer/William-Pietri?share=1" rel="nofollow">https://www.quora.com/Entrepreneurship/Is-it-foolish-to-go-t...</a>

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Swizec超过 11 年前

>As your Facebook network becomes saturated, it can feel very public. It puts the focus on managing your image, rather than truly bonding with people. Young startups like Snapchat are providing shelter from the institution of Facebook by serving as a place where you can express yourself comfortably. A place where you don’t feel like your every move is being watched.This is something I will likely never understand. Why do people have so much trouble with being themselves? This isn't a Facebook problem, this is a society problem. Facebook just exposed it.Instead of talking about the end of the FB era and making new social networks, we should talk about making people more comfortable with being themselves. The first step is to stop spending so much time judging everyone.

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tannerc超过 11 年前

While much of the debate here on HN is around why authors continue to write pieces about "the end of X" or "the demise of Y", I couldn't help but ask the question: "Why do we continue to read them/link to them?Possible answers:1. Many of us (or our employers) rely on these audiences for revenue, so knowing where they are and what they're interested in enables us to have success2. We're interested in what drives success/failure, despite logic indicating that -- in both scenarios -- random chance plays one of the largest parts3. It's like good old-fashioned gossip, where everyone who doesn't actually have anything to say can still speak up4. We hope to learn from history as it happens to us; if we can accurately predict why people are leaving Facebook and where they're going, we can be part of -- or the driver of -- the next wave.

VLM超过 11 年前

"What was cool in the 70s wasn’t cool in the 80s."Its very important he phrased it that way, because bell bottoms had another day in the sun. Happily young women wearing skin tight spandex/yoga pants from the 90s had another day in the 10s. Its difficult to find a womens fashion fad that doesn't repeat every 20-ish years.The endless rotating wheel of fashion and fads doesn't rotate at a speed of 1 rotation per decade. Its more like 1 rotation per 2 decades aka generation.I predict that 2030 will be an excellent year for 2010 style social networks.

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leokun超过 11 年前

A big counter point to the Facebook is a fad is Pepsi. Pepsi was considered a fad in the 60's when it was already 40 years old. It's still around. It buys coolness with a massive marketing budget. Pepsi is water + corn syrup + some flavor. And it's been around for many, many decades. Pepsi, and Cola, show that being old does not mean you can't still be cool.

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marban超过 11 年前

What about leaving the endless discussion about FB's destiny aside and just focus on creating a __new pattern of behavior or activity__ that appeals to a mass audience if you really want to build a large network on its own?Examples of things that worked:- Follow updates of celebrities- Collect nice looking things on a website- Make even the worst picture look good- Be the best cat gif curatorExamples of things that didn't work:- Facebook but for ten friends- Facebook for Google Accounts- Facebook with open data portabilityLet Zuck worry about the hype cycle and start building.

stevenj超过 11 年前

Friendly wager offer: I'll bet anyone $100 that Facebook is still the largest social network based on monthly active users in 5 years. (Facebook itself, not any companies it acquires.)We can either use public company stats, or a couple of respected publications' reported usage stats, or a combination of both to decide the winner.

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mlyang超过 11 年前

The downfall of Facebook is what was the crux of its initial success: the comprehensive largeness of one's social network. On Facebook, most people accept all acquaintances and friends they have in real life (should they get a friend request)-- it would be rude not to-- and as a result, one's Friends List is usually a pretty good indication of one's entire social network. This allowed Facebook to gain its initial network effects, but this is also now paralyzing the activity of its individual users. I feel uncomfortable posting extensively online because there are many people in my friends list who I feel uncomfortable seeing my things (and I don't care enough to create Private lists).As far as addressing the teen exodus, and related to the above impact, Facebook's NewsFeed is just not interesting anymore. Back when Facebook started, I was friends largely with 100-300 people whose lives I actually was interested in. I am not interested in the minutiae of my current 1000+ friends' lives, and their endless and meaningless statuses bore me to no end. Facebook wanted its NewsFeed to break out of the echo chamber effect, and therefore made the NewsFeed algorithm more random, putting the onus of creating relevant NewsFeeds on the individual user (through the creation of individual lists of friends). But USERS WANT THE ECHO CHAMBER EFFECT! I don't want to know what's happening in the "town square,"-- I want to know what's happening with my 20 closest friends. Because teens joined on when this new paradigm was already in place, there's nothing to draw them in. It's just not interesting-- and apps like Instagram and Snapchat are more engaging as a result because they're more personal.Lastly, Facebook is way too cluttered. It has an atrocious UI, so many buttons all over the place. Mark Zuckerberg's utilitarian aesthetic lives to today, only it's way worse because Facebook has so much more (useless) functionality. Instagram and Snapchat are clean and elegant-- it's not jarring to open those apps like it is to navigate Facebook.

aorshan超过 11 年前

As a younger person that these types of articles are so fond of talking about (I'm 21), I don't agree that members of my generation are leaving and that we don't perceive Facebook as cool. I think what's changed with the new social media companies is the timeliness of when we do things.Perfect example- I was out for a Secret Santa dinner with a bunch of my friends. While we were at the dinner, we took tons of pictures, some of which ended up as Snapchat stories or on Instagram. But later that night, every single one of those pictures went up on Facebook. Cover photos were updated aplently. Why? Because all of us are on Facebook and Facebook is still the best way to permanently store and share the experiences you've had with your friends (while also tagging them in the photos).

ek超过 11 年前

I found this article really interesting. I started using Facebook in high school, back when high schoolers were to use hs.facebook.com to access Facebook and networks were heavily emphasized. I left Facebook about one year ago today.One particular observation that the article makes that I want to flesh out a bit is the following: Facebook has grown and grown in terms of the size of the application itself, and it is clear that they have pushed very heavily for the 'platform' model. It seems like this is getting replaced by a series of more specialized, more mobile-centric social applications, like Snapchat and Tumblr. Of course FB owns Instagram so they have that going for them, but this does seem to hint at a bit of a growing trend in social networking.

TrevorJ超过 11 年前

Social networking needs to be a specification. Imagine if email worked the same way social networks worked, it would be ridiculous. You could only communicate with other gmail users, or whatever users were on the platform you adopted. I understand from a business standpoint why social networks have evolved the way they have, but from a utility standpoint it is a lose/lose to have these walled gardens.What would be much better, is to let users use whatever platform they wish and implement some common protocol for following, status updates and private messaging.

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neakor超过 11 年前

I see the evolution of social networking evolving from connecting with everyone in the world, aka public networking to only connect with the ones you actually care about, aka private networking. When Facebook was cool, it was cool to know that you can post a status update and have the "whole world" see it. With the rise of messaging services (snapchat, whatsapp, line and so on), we are moving to the stage where you only share with a very small group of closely connected individuals. A more intimate network.

davidbyttow超过 11 年前

I think FB is simply transitioning from product to utility, like electricity.Just one example is its utility to sign up and log in to other services, which is 95%+ of my FB activity.

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at-fates-hands超过 11 年前

>>> But it’s rich, so it can buy cool. Facebook’s $1 billion acquisition of Instagram was their first big move to strengthen their position with the youth of this country.But with young people, if Facebook is uncool, then by proxy Instagram is uncool as well. This is how teenagers think these days. They can sink as much money into other social platforms, but you won't ever get rid of the Facebook stigma.

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ExpendableGuy超过 11 年前

"Social" isn't a fad, but channels dedicated to being "social" might be. This is pure conjecture, but I think a major component of Twitter's success was that participating did not require you to use an official Twitter client. Ubiquity spurred growth. It's an example of "social media," not a "channel for social."Another major component of Facebook's decline was their lack of a mobile strategy. Again, pure conjecture, but as mobile use in teens increases, the mobile experience matters more -- the Facebook app was unusable for a long time, and that probably had an effect on growth and reputation.In my opinion, the biggest risk for Facebook is the paradigm shift in how we share photos. A big component of their growth in 2009 - 2011 was their dominance in the photo sharing space. They're the number one photo sharing site in the world. Now photo sharing and picture taking are a mobile experience (e.g., Snapchat, Instragram), being the number one photo sharing site isn't as big of a deal. The purchase of Instagram was smart.

alphonse23超过 11 年前

Very well written. Bravo! No doubt, facebook hasn't been cool to me for a least 2-3 years now for me -- if it ever was from the very beginning.

wcummings超过 11 年前

I agree 100% with the author. I log into Facebook once a day, maybe. I don't have fb messenger on my phone. I use mailing lists (set one up for your friends, great, simple way to share photos etc w/ a select group of people)/WhatsApp/Snapchat/IRC (IRCCloud on my phone, because SSH eats up battery).I used to be a much heavier Facebook user. Now I get hassled by family for saying uncouth things, and generally see it as a chore. Everything you do on Facebook is chronicled on your timeline, and has a certain amount of permanency, and while I'm sure you can delete a lot of it its clearly not the intention, so it does require more "curation", as compared to transient chat apps. The privacy controls are opaque and its hard to be sure exactly who you're sharing with, which makes it hard to be comfortable really sharing a lot on Facebook.

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edgrimley超过 11 年前

Mobile has radically changed the social adoption cycle more than we've realized. Facebook is clearly the product of desktop world, where much of the information that made it valuable, particularly the social graph, needed to be contributed to the product to be effective.The move to quickly-adopted "apps" has accelerated in mobile because the plumbing is already in place:1. Contact list / address book Implicit network already exists, does not need to be built in the new product.2. Location GPS takes apps beyond check-ins - adding context and information to posts. Even enabling new sorts of dating networks.3. Media Photos and video, combined with location, contacts and persistent connections on one device make it easier than ever to include photos and video.This combination (not to mention building on the Facebook platform) will continue to enable faster developing and more narrow focused "networks".

DanielBMarkham超过 11 年前

The author here makes a convincing argument that there is a "cool factor" in internet apps but then overstates his case dramatically when he sees the end of FB on the horizon. Simply because a tool loses it's cachet doesn't mean that the network effects go away.Or put more directly: sure, hip 20-somethings don't give Facebook the love they once did. Who cares? FB doesn't have to play the "I'm the coolest kid in town" game any more. As the author says, they can buy cool. All they have to do now is remain the only tool to wish Grandma a happy birthday.Or, as some FB'er put it years ago, they're the phonebook, dammit. Their goal is to be a utility. They want to be the radio station, not the rock band.

PaulHoule超过 11 年前

I can say I use Facebook Connect to log into web sites everyday, and sometimes I post to Facebook using other sites (if I pin something on Pinterest) but I actually check my facebook page one a month or so.

vezzy-fnord超过 11 年前

All social networks have remarkably short golden eras. That said, even though Facebook is declining, I still think all the articles about the "end of the Facebook era" and "death of Facebook" are sensational and exaggerated. They're still, what?... The second or the third highest traffic website internationally? Over a billion registered accounts (regardless of whether only half are legitimate and being used, it's a lot).As the author noted though, Facebook can still thrive in the "cool factor" with their acquisitions.

jokoon超过 11 年前

Even if you don't care or agree about what revolves around Snowden and the NSA, I'm sure it got many people wondering about how facebook operated and how information works.Even if nothing is done about the NSA, it will have the merit of making facebook less and less popular, and make people not trust websites who might be information hungry.I wonder if people thwarting the way they post their info can really make those info gathering useless. That'd fun to watch.

neals超过 11 年前

I see it so much around me. Small Whatsapp groups, going back to sharing with just the ones we want to share it with. No content police. No long on-line history.

chm超过 11 年前

Facebook is a fad. There is no Facebook "era".

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shanev超过 11 年前

I believe another reason teenagers are leaving Facebook is the insistence of using your real identity. Teens don't want their mom finding them online. That's why they're flocking to services where they can be anonymous, like Tumblr, where you can also meet new people outside of your circle of friends.

Touche超过 11 年前

> What teenager wants to hang out in the same place as their parents?Parents have been on Facebook for a long time. Why are teenagers today leaving but not teenagers from 3 years ago?Also, why is it assumed that teenagers who stopped using Facebook today aren't going to come back when they get older and have adult-things they want to share?

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asmman1超过 11 年前

Who cares about Facebook "era".

michaelwww超过 11 年前

Teenagers become soccer Moms and sports watching Dads wondering what happened to their high school friends. There is no better place than Facebook to casually stay in touch. It's part of our life now, like it or not, even though it's not new or fresh anymore.

userulluipeste超过 11 年前

"We filter too much, and with that, we lose real human connection."The one (most outstanding) treat that turned me off from the very first moment I saw that site is that the most "facebook people" tend to filter too little!

tn13超过 11 年前

Do Teens spend a lot of money online ? If they dont then Facebook need not worry about "teens" as such. What happens to todays teens once they are in their 20s ? That is more important question here.

mikeg8超过 11 年前

I really enjoyed this post and found it oddly inspiring. Similar to the Steve Jobs quote about knowing you will die someday and how it helps make decisions. Thanks to the author.

speakme超过 11 年前

"Facebook is a public company now, which means it has to operate like a business."Pretty sad indictment of the tech industry that operating like a business had to be qualified.

chippy超过 11 年前

"No one wants to play in your creepy tree house"Facebook has turned into a creepy tree house - it's no longer a place for people to play. Because it's creepy.

johnclass超过 11 年前

In my experience, comments are moving from Facebook to apps such as whatsapp.

shmerl超过 11 年前

Decentralized social networks is the new thing.

post_break超过 11 年前

Facebook used to be fun. Now it's a chore.

michaelochurch超过 11 年前

Snapchat is a frivolous, silly app mainly used for sexting. I agree that there is something in combing asynchrony and ephemerality, but come on. Nothing run by the likes of Evan Spiegel is going to threaten Facebook. He's not in the same class as Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates. He's not even in the same class as me. He's a rich kid and a lottery winner and should have sold at $3 billion and let someone else run it.Now, what's going to beat Facebook and LinkedIn and much else in the long run-- and by "long" I mean 2020-25 is something I call "quality social". Facebook provides "social" and there is no meaningful filter on quality. That's not a knock on Facebook; that's not its job. People can fill your feed with junk. Of your 400 "friends", 390 are really acquaintances. I have the most respect for what Meetup is doing ("use the Internet to get off the Internet") but the problem of providing a quality social experience over the Internet is an unsolved one. (Meetup just helps people plan offline experiences.) I think that it will start with multiplayer games. Board games are great at alleviating social awkwardness that forms when people are new to each other or haven't kept in touch for a while. It goes beyond games, though; really, the problem is how to allow people to have meaningful and social experiences in such a way that they can be online, offline, or mixed (i.e. a game where some people are physically in the same place and some are not, or a game that persists as their locations change). Maybe we should try this out, do an Ambition tournament some time in 2014. Anyway, there are a lot of unknown variables-- especially around mobile devices-- but Quality Social is where the future (of social/consumer web) is coming from.

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amerika_blog超过 11 年前

It can't end soon enough.The open internet meant that anyone with TCP/IP could see all content.Facebook put everything behind a wall that was both effective at blocking open access and ineffective at protecting privacy.The centralization of the internet into a handful of sites -- Twitter, Wikipedia, Facebook, and Google -- is destructive to the original mission and concept of the internet.

goggles99超过 11 年前

Teen use on Facebook is declining? Well teens don't generally have much money anyway. How does this translate to the end of Facebook? How many teens use Linkedin?

a3voices超过 11 年前

I think Facebook will change from a product to a technology conglomerate, similar to Yahoo or Google.

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