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Why I'm Interested in Bitcoin

190 点作者 ckurdziel超过 11 年前

23 条评论

minimax超过 11 年前
For all the people out there who are thinking about bitcoin as a payment technology: If you assume that customers get paid in dollars and that vendors will have to use dollars to pay their taxes, pay their employees and buy the raw materials for their products (reasonable assumptions, I think), then a payment consists of one conversion from dollars to bitcoins by the purchaser, and one conversion from bitcoins to dollars by the vendor.<p>Those two transactions will have associated costs. Exchanges take out trading fees and the market makers on the exchanges will want to see some profit as well (you will see this reflected in the bid&#x2F;ask spread). The total cost for the transaction will be 2x the spread + exchange fees. People keep touting the 2.5% charge for using credit cards, but they don&#x27;t compare it to a similar value for bitcoin. It clearly is not 0%. Exchange fees alone are can be something like 0.5%. If we double that (two conversions, remember) that&#x27;s 1% just in exchange fees. Unfortunately, I don&#x27;t have good numbers for bitcoin &#x2F; dollar spreads because I don&#x27;t watch that market very closely.<p>So we have 2.5% for credit cards and 1% + spread (unknown) for bitcoin. And with credit cards consumers at least get some protection in the case of fraud. Does anyone else have a better model for bitcoin transaction costs?
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abalone超过 11 年前
This is the same naive analysis everyone makes when they first look at the payments system. &quot;Look at all that money. 2-3% on every transaction. A $500B tax. LOOK AT ALL THAT MONEY.&quot;<p>The reality is this: <i>Most of that money gets passed back to consumers</i> via rewards, benefits and consumer protections.<p>It&#x27;s not a tax so much as an incentive for consumers to keep using their cards. And so it is considerably harder to come up with an alternative that is appealing to merchants without taking anything away from consumers.<p>For example, the interchange on a Visa rewards card for a typical brick-and-mortar retailer is about 1.5 - 1.65%. (Processors mark that up, but that&#x27;s the &quot;wholesale&quot; fee that goes to the card issuer.) But many rewards cards pay out at least 1% cashback, on top of other benefits. That leaves a much smaller margin to compete over.<p>And remember, a new competitive option faces massive rollout and adoption costs that the entrenched system does not. Even the acts of changing behavior, upgrading POS systems and training staff are adoption costs. So your new alternative has to offer <i>significant</i> benefits for <i>both</i> merchants and consumers. Significant enough to overcome adoption costs.<p>Oh, and there&#x27;s one more thing: debit card interchange just got regulated down to almost nothing (0.05% + 21 cents) by the Durbin amendment. So there already is an alternative, low-fee option that merchants can steer consumers toward and that they already support fully. So that pretty much takes out the opportunity to offer a lower-fee, lower-consumer-benefit option. That already exists now.<p>That leaves what? A higher-consumer-benefit option? Why would merchants adopt that? A same-benefit option but at a lower cost? But how much lower would the cost be while still matching 1-2% cashback reward programs and whatnot?<p>But.. but.. LOOK AT ALL THAT MONEY. :-)<p>(Btw, the digital cash for micropayments and garage sales and whatnot does sound interesting to me. My criticism is limited to the project of competing with Visa&#x2F;Mastercard&#x2F;banks.)
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jusben1369超过 11 年前
I too am fascinated by Bitcoin and still in learning mode. I think there&#x27;s one important distinction to add here though. Credit cards can charge 2.5% because they&#x27;re <i>awesome</i> Some guy in Arizona can set himself up online, sign up for Stripe, have no set fees, and accept a payment from someone in Germany (or NY or Australia) that afternoon. That&#x27;s amazingly empowering and 2.5% doesn&#x27;t seem to bad for the people running those rails to collect (fraud, global movement etc)<p>So let&#x27;s not come at it from &quot;credit cards and payments are a bloated gouging industry&quot; I&#x27;m not buying that and it also is too merchant focused (vs consumers who really decide what a merchant will do in terms of payments) Now, there are some really interesting fringe cases that Chris touches upon that can open the door for Bitcoin. Micropayments are broken when it comes to credit cards. It&#x27;s not the %, it that&#x27;s &quot;+ 30 cents&quot; that is brutal. So Bitcoin could play a roll there. There are disbursements and marketplaces. I suspect TaskRabbit would probably like to have the ability to move money from buyers on their platforms to the TaskRabbiter&#x27;s with a reduced payment friction than today. There might be 5% margin businesses (Chris&#x27; example sounds like the founder of Dwolla) that really are motivated to drive you to Bitcoin.<p>So what happens over time is Bitcoin focuses in on those areas where it has a strategic advantage over cards and ignores those where it doesn&#x27;t. It uses that experience to become a legitimate, scaled set of payments rails. Solutions are implemented so that consumers are comfortable with using and paying with Bitcoin. Then at that 5 - 15 year mark it&#x27;s ready to take on mainstream payments. Assuming issues like fraud and settlement and wild fluctuations are worked out.<p>EDIT: I am definitely thinking out loud and on the fly so am ok with some serious rebuttals.
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quack超过 11 年前
I used to believe that the reversibility of transactions was a major benefit of using cards, but it turns out that is really just a reversibility of liability.<p>Credit cards are an outdated tool. They pass plain text data about a user to authorize a transaction allowing hackers to pull something off like the Target hack. One of the advantages of bitcoin is the ability to digitally authorize a transaction that cannot be reused. In an online marketplace it&#x27;s far far easier to accept bitcoins than credit cards because you have no fraud risk, which is a HUGE problem in online retail.<p>I expect a lot of online retail stores to start accepting bitcoin payments at large discounts to cash just for this reason.
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saalweachter超过 11 年前
We don&#x27;t know what the cost of transactions in Bitcoin will be yet.<p>Bitcoin includes two methods to pay miners for the infrastructure costs of running the network: mining rewards and transaction fees. The idea is to bootstrap the network off of mining rewards, and then switch to relying on transaction fees in the future, as Bitcoin reaches its limit of 21 million coins.<p>The problem is that mining rewards are currently very, very non-negligible, even if they&#x27;re decreasing. In 2012, the Bitcoin supply increased by over <i>thirty percent</i>. In 2014 another 1.3 million Bitcoins will be minted and sold by miners to pay for the cost of operating the bitcoin network. At current prices, that&#x27;s nearly a billion dollars.<p>As mining rewards continue to decrease, that billion dollars a year is going to need to be made up through transaction fees. Mastercard takes in less than 8 billion a year, so those transaction fees are probably going to be substantial.
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hippich超过 11 年前
The reason why people should get excited about Bitcoin is not a bubble or money, but rather a something completely new. Large group of people put financial rules into software and agreed that they are going to use these rules without external central entity and enforcement.<p>If this continue to roll, same might be applied to many other areas I believe.<p>It is just my random fantasy at this moment, but why we will need enforcement, if we will have guarantied income in bitcoins and laws system built same way as bitcoin (i.e. opensource and agreed to use by most people) and law enforcement as a function of guaranteed income amount.... Just random thought.<p>or finally having AI which can exist on its own, buy components of its environment (i.e. machines, networks, etc)<p>I believe what is emerging right now as a Bitcoin is much wider phenomena than just a way to avoid pay taxes and inflation.
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wsxcde超过 11 年前
How much of the 2.5% credit card fees goes towards combating fraud and enabling reversibility of transactions? I assume it&#x27;s a significant fraction because you get a better rate if you use services like &quot;verified by visa&quot;, no? Is there any reason to believe that fraud rates will be lower with bitcoin?<p>And as far the programmable money idea goes, I&#x27;d like to see more compelling applications than M of N transactions or escrow. The examples I&#x27;ve seen so far seem rather unexciting.<p>ed: Maybe cdixon&#x27;s real point is that the technology behind bitcoin is disruptive to the financial industry? I can get behind this, and I&#x27;m waiting to see how the government-backed bitcoin clones fare.
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nicholas73超过 11 年前
I don&#x27;t think Bitcoin will ever be a viable currency, at least not on the scale of national currencies. Despite all the flaws fiat currency has, it is actually backed by something - the power of the country&#x27;s government to tax. Thus, any buyer of sovereign debt has a calculable probability of return. Despite America&#x27;s printing of dollars, inflation has actually been mild so far.<p>Bitcoin has nothing backing it but an artificial supply limitation. That in itself is not a solution because its monetary base cannot possibly grow at the rate overall goods do, and thus have a stable price point.
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possibilistic超过 11 年前
Kind of off topic, but I have some questions related to transaction fees.<p>1) Is there a &quot;reference value&quot; in terms of how much transaction fee you have to pay to make a payment from one bitcoin&#x2F;altcoin address to another?<p>2) Is there a &quot;message&quot; payload that would allow us to include JSON or transaction details? I&#x27;ve read that it costs a larger fee for more bytes in a transaction, so I&#x27;m assuming you can add whatever you want to the transaction.<p>3) When I last made a transaction with an altcoin [1], it got &quot;split&quot; to two addresses. One of these addresses was not my target receiving account nor an address that I owned. Does anyone know why this other address got coins? Does this happen in many&#x2F;all cryptocurrencies?<p>4) If I made a payment gateway that created a unique address for every user to send payments to, would it be unreasonably expensive to collect all of these funds into a single address later? (N user payment accounts * 1 outbound transaction =&gt; Large Central Account&#x2F;Wallet)<p>[1] <a href="http://dogechain.info/address/DLqfuYFwVmroo4oaiVU9oSGTjsEBvQ6yEE" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;dogechain.info&#x2F;address&#x2F;DLqfuYFwVmroo4oaiVU9oSGTjsEBvQ...</a>
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neals超过 11 年前
There is so much unexplored territory when it comes to Cryptocurrency. I think people will find innovative uses and start amazing businesses with this.<p>And to me, the great thing is, that there is no real reason to hate it. There&#x27;s not company of brand that you can hate, it&#x27;s just people and ideas.
mbesto超过 11 年前
&gt; <i>Let’s say you sell electronics online. Profit margins in those businesses are usually under 5%, which means the 2.5% payment fees consume half the margin. That’s money that could be reinvested in the business, passed back to consumers, or taxed by the government. Of all of those choices, handing 2.5% to banks to move bits around the Internet is the worst possible choice.</i><p>In other words, better wealth distribution? This is precisely what libertarians are fighting for, no?<p>Playing the devil&#x27;s advocate here - couldn&#x27;t this argument be turned around to say something like &quot;That’s money that could be reinvested in banks which hire the best people to find the best and most efficient use of capital.&quot;? (as opposed to consumers or small business owners who can&#x27;t)
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tomasien超过 11 年前
I know it&#x27;s not quite &quot;not relying on banks and credit card companies&quot;, but removing ONE of them from the equation (credit cards skimming fees) is what I&#x27;m working on now. This is how it works <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QR5UTLxe5zA&amp;feature=youtu.be" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=QR5UTLxe5zA&amp;feature=youtu.be</a><p>By removing them and decentralizing the banking process by centralizing it into a third party (which could be many third parties), I think we&#x27;ll allow anyone who wants to start a bank of any size to compete for marketshare with the big boys by providing better services.
suedadam超过 11 年前
Bitcoins are an amazing investment if you have the money;the only problem in investing into it is that there is absolutely nothing close to a guarantee that you will receive any sort of return of investment with profit (not that it&#x27;s expected to with this type of unofficial currency);however, a problem with it is that you would have to bank wire the money into the place you purchase your BTC from such as BTC-E which would take a few days and for all you know;it could drop or rise at that time (most likely rise) in which you would then not have enough or you could just wait again for it to drop;if it ever were to.
radicaldreamer超过 11 年前
Everyone here trades private currencies (often called credit) all the time. Those Visa bucks are not dollars- they are IOUs from Visa to the merchant accepting them. When the monetary system is functioning well, Visa bucks (or Chase dollars, Wells Fargo dollars etc.) trade at par with legal tenders (US gov. backed cash). Only in times of turmoil does the hierarchy of money reassert itself.<p>In this paradigm, would you rather be holding US cash or bitcoins (or something else) if there was a political or economic crisis?
infruset超过 11 年前
This is refreshing. I suspect even though the libertarians are the most vocal among bitcoin adopters (and that&#x27;s ok), a lot of people actually agree with this.
diminoten超过 11 年前
I know this is completely off-topic, and I know this is a war I will lose, but must we call ourselves &quot;bullish&quot;&#x2F;&quot;bearish&quot;?<p>Anyway, Bitcoin may not save the world, but if it does anything like what this blog post says, it may very well save the Internet from the advertising platform it&#x27;s become.
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drinkzima超过 11 年前
One important fact that seems to be getting ignored with payment fees is that credit cards have much higher fees than debit&#x2F;ATM cards.<p>If bitcoin intends to be a cash-like currency, the more apt fee comparison would be swiping ATM cards, which are much closer to 1% (rather than credit card fees of 2.5%+).
chaseadam17超过 11 年前
I think Bitcoin is an indication of a larger trend, similar to search in the early 90&#x27;s and social networks in the early 2000&#x27;s.<p>Will Bitcoin emerge as the predominant online currency of the 21st century? Who knows? But it&#x27;ll solve a lot of hard problems, and as a result, something will.
maaku超过 11 年前
Given your more liberal leanings, have you looked at Freicoin[0]? It&#x27;s a perishable currency that is meant to counteract the natural tendency of money to be a wealth transfer device in the hands of bankers.<p>[0]: <a href="http://freico.in/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;freico.in&#x2F;</a>
iblaine超过 11 年前
This reminds me. Bitcoin is so complicated and controversial these days. I miss the days before 2013 when bitcoins were used almost exclusively on the deep web among nerds.
MrBlue超过 11 年前
&quot;... I’m a lifelong Democrat who supported Obama in the last two elections. I think the Federal Reserve plays an important function...&quot;<p>I stopped reading here.
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taylorhou超过 11 年前
me and my alt currency enthusiasts think of bitcoin as simply virtual gold.<p>done.
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pacofvf超过 11 年前
In discussions I&#x27;ve read about bitcoin in HN, I&#x27;ve seen how some people call &quot;leftie&quot; to those who think like this, mainly by right leaning Americans, the funny thing is that they use that word as an insult, when in other rich countries you only have center-left, moderate-left and far-left flavors for political parties.