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Microsoft is Dead (2007)

182 点作者 sharjeel超过 11 年前

41 条评论

primitivesuave超过 11 年前
The most common form of Microsoft-hate usually centers around how a company of such gargantuan size makes such gargantuan fuck-ups. But this is to be expected of companies of gargantuan size, and is certainly not limited to Microsoft alone (although recently they&#x27;ve had more than their fair share).<p>My qualm with Microsoft is all the little things that they let slip through. Little things like having a control panel with 100 different links with nondescript names. Is it really possible that not a single person at Microsoft tried changing a setting on their Windows machine and realized how difficult it was to even find the setting? Were they so entrenched in the Microsoft way of doing things that they were accustomed to a shitty user experience? Or did the aesthetically minded engineer have his voice drowned out by the bureaucracy?<p>If the higher-ups were yelling down the food chain, &quot;build an Apple-killing UI!&quot;, I can see how they would settle on what became the app-centric look of Windows 8. But blatantly idiotic decisions around the little things like control panels, choosing wireless connections, and the sheer difficulty of navigation, make me realize that somewhere at Microsoft something is really fucked up.
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eldavido超过 11 年前
It&#x27;s really interesting how in 2007, I believed (as did pg, seemingly) that the web would eventually overtake desktop software.<p>Fast forward seven years, and some of the biggest names in software (Instagram, Lyft) have completely abandoned the web for &quot;desktop&quot; (really, native) software.<p>That so much code ships directly to mobile devices says a lot about the power of centralized app stores and truly sandboxed installations where one app can&#x27;t trash the entire system. We&#x27;ve come a long way.
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adamconroy超过 11 年前
It is an insightful piece but nothing annoys me more than sensationalism. Its click bait and I am annoyed I got sucked into reading it and annoyed that I feel compelled to waste time commenting.<p>Anyway, if it isn&#x27;t obvious, the article&#x27;s credibility is killed by the use of the word dead. Microsoft clearly isn&#x27;t dead it just isn&#x27;t the biggest player on the internet, and isn&#x27;t really a player in the start up space.
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BlobbyLaMouche超过 11 年前
I tend to think the exact opposite to the &quot;Microsoft is Dead&quot;. I&#x27;m nobody important (well not a PG anyway), just a consumer and a developer. And if anybody cares, I&#x27;m quite excited by Microsoft at the moment.<p>As both a developer and a consumer, I have a complaint against Google. It&#x27;s going in every direction. Google has no stable, coherent, ecosystem on which you can build your products. You don&#x27;t know where they are going between Android and Chrome OS. Or between DART and javascript. Or Java and Go. Microsoft is <i>trying</i> to attack exactly that by trying to create, brick by brick, a coherent software ecosystem. Coherent from a development, design and user experience point of view. This direction makes sense to me. I&#x27;m just not buying at the moment as the quality and experience is just not there yet. But I could buy.<p>Also I just watched Nadella speaking, and he says he wants to address the separation between consumer and business software. I think that&#x27;s pretty cool. If you couple that with the fact more and more people work from home, or remotely, and the fact we have more and more devices around for both work and private usage, that begins to make sense.<p>You could argue that we are tired of Microsoft trying. But they are moving all their products together, and it takes more time, obviously. And some skills in the execution. Hence Nadella&#x27;s new role. Well that&#x27;s my interpretation anyway.<p>Now imagine he succeeds to make all these products marginally better. Microsoft doesn&#x27;t need much, it&#x27;s almost there. This could become an Apple-like come-back before even being gone.
LeicaLatte超过 11 年前
Pretty terrible title considering Xbox 360 had taken off in 2006. Not one mention of Xbox in the whole post, indicating how much PG is out of touch. Xbox took gaming to next level, especially online gaming and managed to build a great ecosystem for games.<p>The younger ones, in the last line, are all actually playing on Xbox. Microsoft has greater identification among younger people as brand than say, Apple given their decade long presence in console and PC gaming.
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kbutler超过 11 年前
Paul Graham isn&#x27;t saying that MSFT isn&#x27;t a viable, powerful business, just that it no longer has the potential to use technology to change the world.<p>As a dominant monopolist, MSFT had little incentive to change the world, and as a large, mature company, it is much more likely to be reactive to change than to be the source of change.<p>There more interesting question to me now is, &quot;Is Apple &#x27;dead&#x27;?&quot; Apple has similarly been reacting to change, rather than driving it since the iPad (yes, others may view this differently). Will they be able to create something new and revolutionary? Or will that be left to new, scrappy &quot;startups&quot;?
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jmnicolas超过 11 年前
It&#x27;s a good thing Microsoft is &quot;dead&quot; so now when appropriate we can use MS tech without having to endure the critics.<p>As far as evil goes, to me, Google is much more scaring than MS.
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us0r超过 11 年前
2007 - $51.12 billion<p>2013 - $77.85 billion<p>I&#x27;d love to die like that.
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shliachtx超过 11 年前
<i>&quot;One of the reasons &quot;Web 2.0&quot; has such an air of euphoria about it is the feeling, conscious or not, that this era of monopoly may finally be over.&quot;</i><p>While it seems that there is no longer the complete monopoly that Microsoft had, the new monopoly that Google has is functionally similar. While not fully there yet, they are heading towards near-complete lock-in to Google services. Web 2.0 may have raised the bar for monopoly (or lowered the bar for competition), it definitely didn&#x27;t do away with it altogether.
Beltiras超过 11 年前
I predicted Apple&#x27;s death some months after Steve Jobs died. Why? Two things (both of them decisions of the CEO): Plastic iPhones and the iPad mini (both products Jobs had resisted) and the more damning fact that for the first time a dividend of a serious size was paid (<a href="http://investor.apple.com/dividends.cfm" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;investor.apple.com&#x2F;dividends.cfm</a>). Jobs was adamant about growing the warchest. His assumption was that if a stockholder thought his&#x2F;her investment was better placed elsewhere, stock could be sold and reinvested. The act of paying a dividend states that the board thinks the investor can do better elsewhere with that money.<p>Apple is no longer hungry, nor foolish.
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mehwoot超过 11 年前
Microsoft as the concept of an all powerful dominating IT company is dead, and nothing has or will replace it. The company itself is still doing fine- they still make roughly twice the profit <i>google</i> did last financial year.
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Thiz超过 11 年前
Microsoft wanted to destroy the web, and they lost.<p>They tried to destroy linux, and they lost.<p>They tried to destroy apple, and they lost.<p>They tried to destroy android, and they lost.<p>That&#x27;s why we, web, linux, apple, android fans hate microsoft with a passion.<p>While they succeeded in destroying so many other companies and technologies, we were there and we fought those fights.<p>We never forget.
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djulius超过 11 年前
tl;dr<p>PG thinks the web&#x2F;startup scene == the world. 7 years proved he&#x27;s wrong.
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whistlerbrk超过 11 年前
Why can&#x27;t people just acknowledge these things are cyclical?<p>You love something, then everyone loves it, then it&#x27;s not as cool and special, then people start to hate it, then they tear it down and find something else to love. Microsoft has completed that cycle and is now potentially going to be loved again, whereas Apple is nearing the end of their cycle and is started to be hated.
sekm超过 11 年前
IMO Microsoft is still one of the scariest companies when it comes to the gaming industry. I&#x27;m overjoyed to see tricklets of sanity rise up (the PC market)through Valves efforts, but MS is still a very big, very scary beast in AAA gaming.
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outside1234超过 11 年前
The most amazing thing about this essay is that even the smartest people amongst us (Paul Graham) can be bigoted and see things as black and white when they are grey.<p>Microsoft has done some well documented evil things but imagine if IBM had won the OS wars? Talk about locked down and monopolistic! And has the ascendance of Apple and Google been uniformly good? I think not - we are in less control over our software and our data than when Microsoft was in charge.<p>It kinda seems crazy stupid to not invite a company that makes $24B in income a year to your demo day. But then again, Microsoft has never been a company that is bamboozled by Nest Labs-style startup overvaluation bullshit, and maybe you knew that.
ajcarpy2005超过 11 年前
Microsoft is lumbering and beurocratic but they do actually ship a lot of code and support the developer community. Xbox is also very successful obviously. Windows 8 was a huge flop in most people&#x27;s opinion due to terrible user interface, despite the welcome creation of a Windows app store.<p>They still have a lot of momentum behind them because of all the PC applications that only work with Windows.<p>It&#x27;s an interesting reality that Apple has their OS locked &quot;officially&quot; with their own hardware. In that respect, Microsoft seems more open to hardware competition. (IMO)
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at-fates-hands超过 11 年前
Sometimes I wonder if people who write this stuff actually understand how businesses operate.<p>Microsoft is dead because of competition? How does that even make sense? Like I&#x27;ve said many times before, competition actually makes a company and their products better, not make them die. MS has had to turn their huge ship around and its a slow process.<p>Sure, they&#x27;re making baby steps and getting there, but the hatred for them is beyond what I&#x27;ve seen for other companies. It&#x27;s not just that they dominated and killed a bunch of competition in the 80&#x27;s and 90&#x27;s. Even now with the new products they&#x27;re bringing to market, people are still hazing them and won&#x27;t let them get off the mat.<p>It&#x27;s almost fashionable these days to hate MS. They can&#x27;t do mobile like Android and Apple, they can&#x27;t do cloud stuff like Amazon and Salesforce. .Net is dead, everybody loves Ruby. MS can&#x27;t do anything right, blah, blah, blah.<p>Nobody wants to see the small victories, they just want to pile on enough dirt and hope they go away.
NAFV_P超过 11 年前
&gt; <i>Nearly all the people we fund at Y Combinator use Apple laptops. It was the same in the audience at startup school. All the computer people use Macs or Linux now. Windows is for grandmas, like Macs used to be in the 90s. So not only does the desktop no longer matter, no one who cares about computers uses Microsoft&#x27;s anyway.</i><p>Well, Apple&#x27;s laptops, like their whole hardware range, look really nice and well made. My Toshiba Satellite is dusty, covered in bagel crumbs and stinks of roll-ups. I would be really embarrassed turning up in a public arena with a pig ugly piece of kit that looks like it has been used in a sewer.<p>Windows is still used by many businesses in the UK. That is the main reason I still have it on my laptop, most CV&#x27;s are only accepted as .doc&#x2F;.docx&#x2F;.txt files.<p>The desktop no longer matters? Hell, the CLI is still alive and kicking. I find Vim works better in tty than in xterm.
spiderPig超过 11 年前
So are these the same thoughts the hacker community will have with Apple&#x27;s iOS in the future (there&#x27;ll inevitably be some missteps)? Or even OSX for that matter? I fail to see why in-principle the community that is so vocal about FOSS gives them a pass.
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paulScholes超过 11 年前
&#x27;Microsoft&#x27;s biggest weakness is that they still don&#x27;t realize how much they suck. &#x27;<p>right on the spot.
Mustafabei超过 11 年前
I guess they don&#x27;t see themselves as the community sees an all round and productive IT company. They had and do still have an abundance of market penetration (considering the business world in Europe and Asia and so on). They couldn&#x27;t (maybe didn&#x27;t) kill the desktop by replacing it with surface. They really could have, and the whole business world may be on tablets today, but they didn&#x27;t do it. (and please don&#x27;t tell me that the business world are on tablets today, tablets are still accessories to laptop and desktop computers)<p>I understand if anybody says &quot;hey! MS is not a company as you or others would prescribe to be and you don&#x27;t get what surface is and what it is for!&quot; Maybe that&#x27;s true. But they had lots of chances of coming back as a competitive, innovative actor and they keep grounding their chances with products like Windows 8. Last month, may father, who is an author and do not get along well with any computer called me and said: &quot;I just could not work with this Windows 8.&quot; To note, he barely learned to cope with the old fashioned windows interface. Loading a considerable amount of cognitive load to consumers upon whom your market penetration depends does not seem like good idea. It at least is not &quot;innovation&quot;.<p>We will see what the concept will be like in 5 to 10 years or so, when the planned obsolescence time of the currently available MS running hardware (and software for that matter) comes. But to replace things like Word, Excel? Quite possible, but difficult. When those can be replaced, I think we will see whether the company stands over a house of cards or not.
Nilzor超过 11 年前
<i>&quot;no one who cares about computers uses Microsoft&#x27;s anyway.&quot;</i><p>That was a false statement in 2007 and is still today. I&#x27;m the evidence, if no one else. And I don&#x27;t think I&#x27;m alone, although it <i>does</i> puzzle me when I see Microsoft evangelists at conferences holding speeches from Apple computers.
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yread超过 11 年前
I don&#x27;t think they are dead. Just look at design. WP7 brought forward the flat style. First everybody laughed at it. Now it&#x27;s the new hip. iOS got converted into flat. Lots of websites are being redesigned for flat. How many examples of flat design would there be if MS didn&#x27;t have any mindshare?
sharemywin超过 11 年前
A lot of start ups are making OSs, browsers, web servers, email clients or servers, productivity suites, game consoles,document servers. Nope. Sorry, still avoiding Microsoft&#x27;s territory. And if Google or Apple gets kicked in the balls from the justice department they would become low key as well.
ilaksh超过 11 年前
Its a natural tendency of the system for proprietary efforts to grow in power and centralize. We need a more evolved paradigm because there is a fundamental antagonism between business (in its current form) and technology.<p>One of the things that is starting to force this evolution is the growing realization that we must move from a server-based internet to a distributed data-based internet.<p>We need to popularize new or better ways of achieving cohesion while maintaining decoupling, diversity, and freedom to evolve different solutions.<p>I think there are a lot of ideas but the newest and best ideas for fundamental structural changes are not well known or tested. We need to test some radical changes to societal structures.
ppradhan超过 11 年前
this sounded like pandering then, it sounds like pandering now. he&#x27;s in business, of course he&#x27;s got a solid marketer in him!
dchichkov超过 11 年前
It would not be optimal for Microsoft to die. And it is kinda sad that DEC and Sun are no more. I liked that <a href="http://altavista.digital.com" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;altavista.digital.com</a>. It was good.
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sparky_z超过 11 年前
Funny how the links to the footnotes in the article are intercepted by the numbered list near the bottom. You&#x27;d think somebody would have caught that bug by now.<p>The first time through, I thought they <i>were</i> the footnotes, and, oddly enough, they sort-of made sense. Especially the 2nd one, which came off as a strange joke (as in &quot;We better make sure Microsoft doesn&#x27;t catch the Apple bug&quot;).
smoyer超过 11 年前
From my experience, girls liked Barry Manilow in the mid-to-late &#x27;70s ... he was hard to compete against in middle school.
VikingCoder超过 11 年前
Wow, reading an article saying that MSFT is dead, with this line, &quot;And of course Apple has Microsoft on the run in music too, with TV and phones on the way.&quot;<p>ON THE WAY. This article is before the iPhone came to dominate. Wow, did Microsoft miss that boat.
LordHumungous超过 11 年前
Ehhh Microsoft still has a lot of talent they are just plagued with entrenched bureaucracy.
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tzury超过 11 年前
At the time this was written, it seemed as if Microsoft was <i></i>dying<i></i>, so calling it dead might be a &quot;safe&quot; prediction.<p>However, even a dying wounded can get intensive care and get back to life...
mamby超过 11 年前
Keywords:<p>- Web - Google, Apple - Startup<p>Insight: Web: Infrastruture (Cloud) + Apps (HTML&amp;co, Native) Are Apple &amp; Goog better than MS @this ?
ohjeez超过 11 年前
Oh my. I remember reading this when it first came out in 2007. Does that make me an old fart?
jaseemabid超过 11 年前
Good news for Satya Nadella to start with
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dschiptsov超过 11 年前
Is this still a news for anyone?)
ddmma超过 11 年前
why every time something new good happens some old sh8 must pop-up?
dandare超过 11 年前
Huh, sir, are you a prophet?<p>This is clearly amazing :D
headgasket超过 11 年前
C# and .net killed MS. The same virus killed Sun and will kill oracle. Technologies that try to isolate the coder from the machine by creating a funnelled dumbed-down common interface are inherently flawed because the HW evolves faster than the software.
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beerglass超过 11 年前
(sorry if I sound like a phony or worse suckup when I say this, but) PG is one of the smartest, ahead-of-his-times guy of our generation!
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