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The Engineer Crunch

452 点作者 clarkm超过 11 年前

49 条评论

GuiA超过 11 年前
I&#x27;m starting to be a bit disillusioned with this whole &quot;we can&#x27;t find great people&quot; spiel that a lot of startups put up.<p>I have friends who are extremely good engineers (i.e., a mix of: contributors to major open source projects used by a lot of SV startups, have given talks at large conferences, published papers at ACM conferences, great portfolio of side&#x2F;student projects, have worked at great companies previously, frequently write high quality tech articles on their blog, have high reputations on sites like Stack Overflow, etc.) and who have been rejected at interviews from those same companies who say that they can&#x27;t find talent. (it also certainly doesn&#x27;t help that the standard answer is &quot;we&#x27;re sorry, we feel like there isn&#x27;t a match right now&quot; rather than something constructive. &quot;No match&quot; can mean anything on the spectrum that starts at &quot;you&#x27;re a terrible engineer and we don&#x27;t want you&quot; and ends at &quot;one of our interviewers felt threatened by you because you&#x27;re more knowledgeable so he veto&#x27;d you&quot;).<p>Seriously, if you&#x27;re really desperate for engineering talent, I can give you contact info for a dozen or so of friends who are ready to work for you RIGHT NOW (provided your startup isn&#x27;t an awful place with awful people, of course) and probably another dozen or two who would work for you given enough convincing.<p>I&#x27;m honestly starting to believe that it isn&#x27;t hard to hire, but that there&#x27;s some psychological effect at play that leads companies to make it harder on themselves out of misplaced pride or sense of elitism.<p>Unless everyone wants to hire Guido Van Rossum or Donald Knuth, but then a) statistically speaking, you&#x27;re just setting yourself up for failure and b) you need to realize that those kind of people wouldn&#x27;t want to do the glorified web dev&#x2F;sys admin&#x27;ing that a lot of SV jobs are.
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pg超过 11 年前
&quot;I have never seen a startup regret being generous with equity for their early employees.&quot;<p>Same here. I always advise startups to err on the side of generosity with equity.
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jfasi超过 11 年前
&gt; if people are going to turn down the certainty of a huge salary at Google, they should get a reward for taking that risk.<p>I often see a disconnect between perceptions of expected success of founders and engineers. I&#x27;ve observed this is particularly pointed for non-technical founders. To generalize, a young entrepreneur with some success under his belt is starting a company. As far as he&#x27;s concerned his company is all but guaranteed to succeed: he&#x27;s got the experience and sophistication necessary to make this happen, the team he&#x27;s hired to his point is top-notch, he&#x27;s got the attention of some investors, the product is well thought out, etc. He approaches an exceptional engineer and extends an impassioned invitation and... the engineer balks.<p>What happened? Is he delusional about the company&#x27;s prospects, thinking he&#x27;s got a sure fire hit when he&#x27;s actually in for a nasty surprise once his hubris collides with reality? Is the engineer a square who would rather work a boring job at a big company than live his life, and wouldn&#x27;t be a good fit for the team anyway?<p>I propose a different resolution: our confident businessman is certain about the success of <i>the company</i>, not the success of the <i>engineer as part of the company</i>. He knows the company&#x27;s success is going to rocket him into an elite circle of Startup Entrepreneurs. The engineer, on the other hand, doesn&#x27;t see the correlation between the company&#x27;s success and his own: even if the company takes off to the tune of eight to nine digits, his little dribble of equity is just barely breaking even over the comfortable stable position he&#x27;s in now.
x0x0超过 11 年前
This post, I think, makes 2 mistakes.<p>First, sf and the valley simply don&#x27;t pay engineers well enough. This is the second, striving to become the first, most expensive housing market in the united states. $150k sounds great here until you look at that as a fraction of your housing cost and compare to <i>anywhere</i> else in the country, including manhattan (because unlike here, nyc isn&#x27;t run by morons so they have functioning transportation systems). I don&#x27;t want to just quote myself, but all this still applies: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7195118" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=7195118</a><p>Second, immigration is a crutch to get around paying domestic employees enough. I see net emigration from the valley amongst experienced engineers in their 30s who start having families and can find better financial lives elsewhere. If companies paid well enough that moving to the bay area wasn&#x27;t horrid financially, they&#x27;d find plenty of software engineering talent already in the united states. But consider my friend above: $165 total income in the midwest is (compared solely to housing cost) equivalent to approx $450k here, when holding (housing costs &#x2F; post tax income) constant.<p>edit: not to mention, companies <i>still</i> don&#x27;t want flexible employment arrangements or remote work. I&#x27;m a data scientist and I&#x27;m good at my job (proof: employment history, employers haven&#x27;t wanted me to leave, track record of accomplishments.) I&#x27;d rather live elsewhere. 66 data scientist posts on craigslist (obv w&#x2F; some duplication, but just a quick count) [1]; jobs that mention machine learning fill search results with &gt; 100 answers [2]. Now check either of the above for telecommute or part time. Zero responses for remote or part time workers. So again, employers want their perfect employee -- skilled at his or her job, wants to move to the valley enough to take a big hit to net life living standards, doesn&#x27;t have kids, and doesn&#x27;t want them (cause daycare or a nanny or an SO who doesn&#x27;t work is all very expensive.)<p>[1] <a href="http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/jjj?zoomToPosting=&amp;catAbb=jjj&amp;query=data+scientist&amp;excats=" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;sfbay.craigslist.org&#x2F;search&#x2F;jjj?zoomToPosting=&amp;catAbb...</a><p>[2] <a href="http://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/jjj?zoomToPosting=&amp;catAbb=jjj&amp;query=machine+learning&amp;excats=" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;sfbay.craigslist.org&#x2F;search&#x2F;jjj?zoomToPosting=&amp;catAbb...</a>
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OmarIsmail超过 11 年前
“The only thing you need to do is fix immigration for founders and engineers. This will likely have far more of an impact than all of the government innovation programs put together.” - this is so darn true it&#x27;s not even funny.<p>Conversely, and I know this is pretty out there, this is what I think will be the killer app of virtual reality. If I can ship a $5K &quot;pod&quot; to a developer somewhere in the world which allows us to work together 90% as well as we can in person, then you&#x27;re damn right I&#x27;m going to do that.<p>I believe VR tech will get good enough (3-5 years) before immigration issues will be sorted out (10-20).
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tptacek超过 11 年前
Broken record: startups are also probably rejecting a <i>lot</i> of engineering candidates that would perform as well or better than anyone on their existing team, because tech industry hiring processes are folkloric and irrational.<p>I co-manage a consultancy. We operate in the valley. We&#x27;re in a very specialized niche that is especially demanding of software development skills. Our skills needs also track the market, because we have to play on our clients turf. Consultancies running in steady state have an especially direct relationship between recruiting and revenue.<p>A few years ago, we found ourselves crunched. We turned a lot of different knobs to try to solve the problem. For a while, Hacker News was our #1 recruiting vehicle. We ran ads. We went to events at schools. We shook down our networks and those of our team (by offering larger and larger recruiting bonuses, among other things).<p>We have since resolved this problem. My current perspective is that we have little trouble filling slots as we add them, in <i>any</i> market --- we operate in Chicago (where it is trivially easy to recruit), SFBA (harder), and NYC (hardest). We&#x27;ve been in a comfortable place with recruiting for almost a year now (ie, about half the lifetime of a typical startup).<p>I attribute our success to just a few things:<p>* We created long-running outreach events (the Watsi-pledging crypto challenges, the joint Square MSP CTF) that are graded so that large numbers of people can engage and get value from them, but people who are especially interested in them can self-select their way to talking to us about a job. Worth mentioning: the crypto challenges, which are currently by far our most successful recruiting vehicle (followed by Stripe&#x27;s CTF #2) are just a series of emails we send; they&#x27;re essentially a blog post that we weaponized instead of wasting on a blog.<p>* We totally overhauled our interview process, with three main goals: (1) we over-communicate and sell our roles before we ever get selective with candidates, (2) we use quantifiable work-sample tests as the most important weighted component in selecting candidates, and (3) we standardize interviews so we can track what is and isn&#x27;t predictive of success.<p>Both of these approaches have paid off, but improving interviews has been the more important of the two. Compare the first 2&#x2F;3rds of Matasano&#x27;s lifetime to the last 1&#x2F;3rd. The typical candidate we&#x27;ve hired lately would never have gotten hired at early Matasano, because (a) they wouldn&#x27;t have had the resume for it, and (b) we over-weighted intangibles like how convincing candidates were in face-to-face interviews. But the candidates we&#x27;ve hired lately compare extremely well to our earlier teams! It&#x27;s actually kind of magical: we interview people whose only prior work experience is &quot;Line of Business .NET Developer&quot;, and they end up showing us how to write exploits for elliptic curve partial nonce bias attacks that involve Fourier transforms and BKZ lattice reduction steps that take 6 hours to run.<p>How? By running an outreach program that attracts people who are interested in crypto, and building an interview process that doesn&#x27;t care what your resume says or how slick you are in an interview.<p>Call it the &quot;Moneyball&quot; strategy.<p><i>Later: if I&#x27;ve hijacked the thread here, let me know; I&#x27;ve said all this before and am happy to delete the comment.</i>
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jamesaguilar超过 11 年前
Given the offers I&#x27;ve heard people getting from early stage startups (engineer 2-5), I don&#x27;t really get why someone <i>would</i> join them. Below market rate salary? 0.1% of a company that&#x27;s going to exit at $80M with a 10% chance and $0 with a 90% chance? That comes out to $80k over four years of work, before taxes, in the typical <i>successful</i> case, which is itself atypical. And for what amounts to a relatively small bonus, I&#x27;d be expected to work 50-70 hour weeks? Sign me up!
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grandalf超过 11 年前
This is the most insightful thing I&#x27;ve read about the engineer crunch in a while. The market needs to realize that good engineers have lots of options and that 0.1% is just not a meaningful amount. I&#x27;d like to see 5-8% for key engineering hires, even as companies approach Series A.<p>Does the founder really want to get greedy and keep that extra few percent when so much depends upon solid engineering execution? Also, don&#x27;t forget that 4 year vesting with a 1 year cliff is standard, so it&#x27;s not as if the worth of a meaningful equity offer isn&#x27;t fully obvious before the shares are &quot;spent&quot; on a key hire (also, before vesting, the risk is totally borne by the employee).<p>I think the ideal situation for engineers would be to earn a solid equity offer and then have a secondary market to use to trade some of it (once it&#x27;s vested) for fractional ISOs of other promising startups.
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djb_hackernews超过 11 年前
Wait, I thought we all agreed that there isn&#x27;t an engineering crunch?<p>I am not sure what immigration has to do with this, we make plenty of STEM graduates each year, and we&#x27;d make more if the professions didn&#x27;t look like they were under attack by every employer and politician. The smart kids you want to hire are smart enough to go into more protected professions, if they knew their jobs wouldn&#x27;t be shipped over seas or their market flooded with foreign competition, then maybe we&#x27;d be able to attract them and keep them.<p>I worry that focusing on equity will just exacerbate the problem, because I think that a lot of people are becoming wise to the equity lottery and just don&#x27;t see a difference between 0.1% and 5% of nothing. The problem will most certainly be solved by $$, but no doubt it is tough pill to swallow for a business to pay 150k now what was 100k a few years ago...<p>Keep in mind I am a software developer and self interested.
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trustfundbaby超过 11 年前
The other thing that is interesting to me is the ludicrously highbar, and &quot;weed out&quot; interview techniques that some these companies have for recruiting engineers.<p>They&#x27;re looking for someone to work on a rails app but they won&#x27;t hire them unless they have demonstrated Linus-Torvalds like ability and knowledge. But the question is, why would someone with that kind of skill level want to work for you?<p>What if you were able to grab smart engineers on their way to becoming engineering stars? Why not aim for getting a solid lead&#x2F;architect and adding midlevel guys who you know are going to turn into superstars? Why not develop talent instead of competing all the way at the top of the market for the most expensive ones? Why not figure out an interview technique that can let you identify exactly these kinds of people?<p>Its all about being resourceful and nimble enough to adjust, after all, isn&#x27;t that what a startup is all about?
bgentry超过 11 年前
<i>I have never seen a startup regret being generous with equity for their early employees.</i><p>A few years ago, Zynga told some early employees with lots of shares that they had to give back some of their stock or they&#x27;d be fired:<p><a href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-57322150-17/zynga-to-employees-give-back-our-stock-or-youll-be-fired/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.cnet.com&#x2F;8301-13506_3-57322150-17&#x2F;zynga-to-emplo...</a><p><a href="http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/11/10/zynga-stock-scandal/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;finance.fortune.cnn.com&#x2F;2011&#x2F;11&#x2F;10&#x2F;zynga-stock-scanda...</a><p>I&#x27;m not sure if that qualifies as &quot;regret&quot;, or if it&#x27;s just greed, but it&#x27;s one very public example of a company deciding they&#x27;ve given too many options to early employees.
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Xdes超过 11 年前
&gt;There are great hackers all over the country, and many of them can be talked into moving to the valley.<p>For all this &quot;we work remote&quot; stuff that is flying around this seems to be a direct contradiction. Is moving to the valley really necessary? I can postulate coming for a face-to-face interview, but I would never want to move to California.
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cia_plant超过 11 年前
What&#x27;s up with the cliff anyway? You&#x27;re already asking me to take a much higher level of risk and a much lower level of liquidity than I&#x27;d like in my compensation, by giving me stock options. In addition to that you want me to take on 100% of the risk of our working arrangement not working out, and in fact you insist on giving yourself a strong incentive to fire me before the first year is out? It seems ridiculously exploitative.
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jfasi超过 11 年前
This implies a somewhat one-way relationship between companies and their engineers: engineers give their time and talents, and in return companies give their money and equity. Under this system, why not be selective about who you hire? If you want great work, you need to hire a great engineer.<p>In actuality, the truth is great people aren&#x27;t found, they&#x27;re made. The role of a good leader isn&#x27;t to squeeze great work out of his employees, but rather to develop within them the capability to do great work. Applied to hiring, this means having an understanding of the support and growth capabilities within your organization, and finding candidates who have the most potential to gain from it, rather than hiring those who are already well-developed. Applied to hiring rockstars, this makes them even <i>more</i> valuable: not only would they be producing outstanding work on their own, they would actually be improving the quality of the work their peers produce.
fidotron超过 11 年前
There isn&#x27;t so much a shortage of engineers as a shortage of people willing to relocate to a stupidly expensive area and gamble what they have in the process. From the outside, but as a reasonably regular visitor, the Bay Area has lost the plot completely.
sheetjs超过 11 年前
The one part of the problem that the author missed is salary. Offering a small amount of equity is fine if you are offering an above-market salary, but it&#x27;s the combination of below-market salary and minimal equity that causes the perceived crunch.<p>&quot;You get what you pay for&quot;
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jjoe超过 11 年前
<i>What</i> protects an equity-holder employee from being viciously or prematurely fired prior to the exit or cash out event?
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coffeemug超过 11 年前
In my experience non-engineering roles are just as difficult to fill.<p>You can easily find a non-technical hire if you don&#x27;t know what you want or don&#x27;t care about quality. If you care about quality, you&#x27;ll be stuck in the same crunch. For example, the skill of being able to write without run-on sentences eliminates 99.9% of the candidates in the pool, for <i>any</i> role. Want candidates who can write reasonably well? Hiring just got 100x more difficult. In a modern environment, if you&#x27;re non-technical and can&#x27;t write well, what <i>can</i> you do?
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Pxtl超过 11 年前
I&#x27;m surprised that &quot;get out of the valley&quot; isn&#x27;t an option for that. I mean, there are a lot of cities that produce lots of talented developers that cost a lot less than Silicon Valley rates.
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mathattack超过 11 年前
&quot;<i>Finally, most founders are not willing to spend the time it takes to source engineering candidates and convince them to come interview. You can&#x27;t outsource this to a recruiter until the company is fairly well-established--you have to do it yourself.</i>&quot;<p>This is very important. It needs to percolate into their immediate reports too. I&#x27;ve seen high tech companies lose great candidates because the first line managers were too busy to interview them right away. If the right talent is available, you have to maket he time.
rqebmm超过 11 年前
The interview process is still something that hasn&#x27;t been solved. A lot of companies make hiring decisions based almost entirely on how well someone does non-coding work under extreme social pressure, which is about the worst possible way to measure the prospects of a developer!<p>Personally I really like the interview process a previous empoyer used: shortly before the interview starts we had them look over a roughly CS 102-level programming project, then we ask them to design the architecture on a whiteboard while the interviewers ask questions&#x2F;give guidance. What we&#x27;re really looking for here is:<p>a.) how do they handle the social aspect of working with a superior who will often (gently) criticize your work and&#x2F;or ask you to thoroughly explain why you&#x27;re doing what. b.) that they have enough chops to architect a simple program.<p>If they can pass those test I&#x27;m confident they&#x27;ll be an effective team member, because at the end of the day all you really want is someone who is competent enough to be useful, and fits into your culture&#x2F;team. Everything else will shake itself out. You don&#x27;t need some &quot;superstar&#x2F;rockstar&#x2F;ninja&quot; (unless you&#x27;re solving a particularly hard domain-specific problem) so stop looking for them and excluding everyone else.<p>Instead start building an effective team.
prathammittal超过 11 年前
Talent crunch debate is an elusive one. No credible data is available and we interpret to make ourselves feel good- sour grapes. One thing I would say (in my capacity as having gone to high school in India) is that there are thousands of great engineers (I&#x27;m talking about my friends from IIT and IIT) who would die to work for a Dropbox or an Airbnb. I&#x27;m guessing its a similar situation in S.America, Europe, China (?) etc.<p>Now, as far as I know, these companies don&#x27;t hire in most of these countries. But why don&#x27;t they? I don&#x27;t understand. Visa stuff is less of a concern actually.. its been thrashed more than it deserves. Indian consulting companies got like 30K H1Bs last year. 30,000 engineers moved from India to the US. Surely, Dropbox can get 20 good ones. And your startup could probably get a handful too.<p>These engineers grew up on hacker news - so culture is not the problem. They are moving seven seas - so they work hard and aren&#x27;t dicks. Their options in India are limited - so the salary negotiation is less of a nightmare.<p>Not sure if there are any republicans here, so I&#x27;ll not defend the &quot;Indian developer taking away American job&quot; phenomenon. Hopefully, HNers get why immigration makes sense.<p>We are trying at VenturePact.com to build a vetted international talent marketplace. We launched a couple of weeks ago in Delhi and a few tech hubs in India and got hundreds of apps from developers wanting to work in the valley or NY. Well, many applications were not suitable BUT many were.<p>Would love to read what people think of hiring internationally. And what would the preference be between getting them to work remotely vs relocate.
cratermoon超过 11 年前
tl;dr:<p>There&#x27;s no engineering crunch, just companies that don&#x27;t want to pay market rates.<p>The Free Market from startup&#x2F;VC perspective: It works when we profit, but when we want to hire cheap labor it&#x27;s because there&#x27;s not enough people.
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wpietri超过 11 年前
My approach to equity was to offer a range. We&#x27;d offer base equity and salary numbers, and then give them an ability to trade salary for equity. If I recall rightly, they got a modestly better deal than investors did.<p>In doing that, it became clear that not everybody even wants more equity. That was a little hard for us as founders to take, because we of course thought the equity was awesome, and wanted engineers to feel a real sense of ownership. But from the numbers, it was clear that some people would rather we sold more equity to investors and just gave them the cash.<p>I get that. If you&#x27;ve been around the industry for a while, you can accumulate quite a collection of expired startup lottery tickets. Landlords, mortgage-holders, and kids&#x27; orthodontists don&#x27;t take options; they take cash.
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frodopwns超过 11 年前
There is no engineer crunch. Only wannabe founders who can&#x27;t do anything but talk big.<p>&quot;Hey do you want to join my startup? We are reinventing analytics....again.&quot;
erichocean超过 11 年前
As a teenager, I came to the conclusion that I would never get a job as a result of an interview. I&#x27;d be even less likely to get past HR and get an interview.<p>So I haven&#x27;t interviewed for a single job for the last 18 years. Sometimes people ask me for my resume; I don&#x27;t have one.<p>What I did instead is take a problem I was interested in, solve it on paper, and then approach a company to pay me to implement that solution for them (along with an estimate of the cost). That has worked out really, really well for me.<p>If you find that interviewers or HR aren&#x27;t sizing you up correctly, this approach might be an option. Businesses, when it comes to tech, mostly just want problems solved. If you can do that, you&#x27;ll get hired. Nothing shows you can do something like bringing them the (on paper) solution, and offering to built it.
ronaldx超过 11 年前
Also, a cliff is very unattractive because we know you&#x27;re motivated to fire us before the cliff - probably even if we do a good job. Indeed, you openly admit it.
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michaelt超过 11 年前
<p><pre><code> I frequently hear startups say [...] can&#x27;t find a single great candidate for an engineering role no matter how hard they look. </code></pre> While I agree that offering better compensation is a wise move for individual companies, if the market has 10 job openings and 9 engineers, regardless of how much pay they offer one of the companies won&#x27;t be able to fill the opening.<p>Offering more money might fix hiring problems for one company, stopping one person complaining, but to stop <i>all</i> people complaining the only solution is to increase the supply or reduce the demand.<p>(Increasing the supply doesn&#x27;t have to mean immigration reform - it could mean training or lowering hiring standards or a bunch of other things)
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kreek超过 11 年前
&quot;For most startups in the bay area&quot;... time to move or be open to remote developers.
j_baker超过 11 年前
&gt; In fact, probably less than 5% of the best hackers are even in the United States.<p>Startups clearly need to be basing more of their decisions on unfounded conjectures. I have to say that startups seem to have unreasonable expectations of what kinds of programmers they can hire. We have plenty of viable hackers in the US, but startups don&#x27;t want to hire them because they&#x27;re not the next Knuth or they&#x27;re &quot;not a good cultural fit&quot;.<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-real-truth-about-the-stem-shortage-that-americans-dont-want-to-hear-2013-5" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.businessinsider.com&#x2F;the-real-truth-about-the-stem...</a>
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Matt_Mickiewicz超过 11 年前
&quot;Third, if you’re going to recruit outside of your network (usually a mistake, but sometimes there are truly no other options), focus on recruiting outside of the valley. There are great hackers all over the country, and many of them can be talked into moving to the valley.&quot;<p>UPVOTE!! I&#x27;m shocked at how many companies are unwilling to pay for a $500 Southwest ticket to fly someone in for a day to interview from Texas or Georgia... relocation costs are easily offset by a slightly lower salary, and the person you&#x27;re interviewing is unlikely to have 4 or 5 paper offers in hand.
puppetmaster3超过 11 年前
It&#x27;s bogus. There is no shortage of engineers. But there are many badly managed corps that only H1 would work at.
chris_mahan超过 11 年前
&quot;Great hackers also want the opportunity to work with really smart people and the opportunity to work on interesting problems, and the nature of mission-oriented companies is such that they usually end up offering these as well.&quot;<p>Uh, I don&#x27;t care if it&#x27;s &quot;saving the world and the whales&quot; or &quot;enhancing legal resolution outcomes through analytics&quot;. I care that I am granted enough latitude to design and implement a good solution, instead of being handed a software toolbox and told to &quot;bang on nails&quot; all day.
timedoctor超过 11 年前
We find it moderately difficult, but definitely possible to find great people. The secret is NOT looking in Silicon valley and the bay area where thousands of extremely well funded companies are looking for talented developers.<p>Totally agree with the last sentiments that if you&#x27;re in the bay area why should you ONLY considering hiring in the same area? It shocks me that technology companies can be so parochial.<p>You can hire across the entire US, Canada is just nearby and then there is ... the rest of the planet!
lkrubner超过 11 年前
Regarding this:<p>&quot;Sometimes this difficulty is self-inflicted.&quot;<p>I want to emphasize how strong this point is. In most ways, the computer programming industry is a shrinking industry in the USA. There are less computer programming jobs in the USA than there were 20 years ago.<p>Stats from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (USA):<p><a href="http://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bls.gov&#x2F;ooh&#x2F;computer-and-information-technology&#x2F;c...</a><p>1990 Number of Jobs 565,000<p>2010 Number of Jobs 363,100<p>2012 Number of Jobs 343,700<p>There is a tiny subset of the industry that is growing, and we associate these with the startups in San Francisco and New York. But so far these startups have not created enough jobs to offset the jobs lost due to other factors.<p>This suggests that there must be a vast reservoir or programmers who would like programming jobs, but they can&#x27;t work as programmers because the jobs have disappeared.<p>If the numbers were smaller, you could argue that the loss of jobs was due to inaccuracies in the way Bureau of Labor gathers statistics. But the drop from 565,000 jobs to 343,700 is too large to be a spurious blip.<p>This is a shrinking industry. Computer programming jobs are tied to manufacturing so as manufacturing leaves the USA, so to do the computer programming jobs. Don&#x27;t get caught up in the hype about startups: look at the actual numbers. The government tracks these jobs. The numbers are shrinking.<p>Especially worth a look:<p><a href="http://americawhatwentwrong.org/story/programming-jobs-fall/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;americawhatwentwrong.org&#x2F;story&#x2F;programming-jobs-fall&#x2F;</a><p>&quot;In its 1990 Occupational Outlook Handbook, the U.S. Department of Labor was especially bullish: “The need for programmers will increase as businesses, government, schools and scientific organizations seek new applications for computers and improvements to the software already in use [and] further automation . . . will drive the growth of programmer employment.” The report predicted that the greatest demand would be for programmers with four years of college who would earn above-average salaries.<p>When Labor made these projections in 1990, there were 565,000 computer programmers. With computer usage expanding, the department predicted that “employment of programmers is expected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations through the year 2005 . . .”<p>It didn’t. Employment fluctuated in the years following the report, then settled into a slow downward pattern after 2000. By 2002, the number of programmers had slipped to 499,000. That was down 12 percent–not up–from 1990. Nonetheless, the Labor Department was still optimistic that the field would create jobs–not at the robust rate the agency had predicted, but at least at the same rate as the economy as a whole.<p>Wrong again. By 2006, with the actual number of programming jobs continuing to decline, even that illusion couldn’t be maintained. With the number of jobs falling to 435,000, or 130,000 fewer than in 1990, Labor finally acknowledged that jobs in computer programming were “expected to decline slowly.” &quot;
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_random_超过 11 年前
There is a gold crunch as well - I can&#x27;t find 999% gold at 1$ per kg.
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arbuge超过 11 年前
Recruiting good web developers is tough, no question, but I remember trying to recruit good analog IC design engineers at my previous startup. That made hiring developers look like a cakewalk in comparison. There were maybe 100-200 worldwide who fit the bill, all of whom were already happily employed at very comfortable jobs.
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w_t_payne超过 11 年前
Or, y&#x27;know, maybe locate outside of the Valley?
pistle超过 11 年前
&gt;&quot;Don&#x27;t hire outside your network.&quot;<p>If nobody in your network has a track record of results, become a sycophant? What if all the hackers in your network are US as well? You got less than a 5% chance of a hope to do anything according to Altman.
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randunel超过 11 年前
As a non-us engineer, I&#x27;ve had 2 visa applications denied. I guess Europe wins :D
RogerL超过 11 年前
I would like to share how inhuman a lot of the interview processes are. Some examples: * recruiter says a startup is interested, introduces me to the HR person via email. I get a 2 sentence email from HR, telling me that I have to schedule a phone technical interview in the next day or two, they need to onboard FAST.<p>Okay, I don&#x27;t know what the job is, who the client is, and the last thing I want to do is be grilled over the phone. I&#x27;m certainly uninterested in your time crunch and am not going to rearrange my life to meet your schedule requirements (there were narrow stipulations on acceptable times).<p>* Talk with a company, and explain that I don&#x27;t do whiteboard interviewing. Oh, a session is no problem, but the interview has to be as much letting me interview and question you. &#x27;No problem, we just want to talk and see where you&#x27;ll fit in&#x27;.<p>Come the day, and I barely get a &#x27;hi&#x27;, just nonstop whiteboard coding in an intense environment. Took the whole day off for that time waste. Two of the sessions had me solve essentially the identical problem - I waste my day, they don&#x27;t take 5 minutes to plan out what I&#x27;ll be asked. Then they call me back, and tell me I have to come in for another series a day later, which was entirely unexpected, and not communicated to me prior to agreeing to interview. And if my requests for how the interview is conducted can&#x27;t be honored, fine, tell me, and either I&#x27;ll change my mind or decide not to waste a day taken from work. The cap to all of that was the &#x27;shoot the messenger&#x27; emails when I said I was not accepting due to how this all went down (and oh, I didn&#x27;t respond quickly enough to that email, meaning it took me a few hours, so more grief for that).<p>* Just general, insistent demands as if I have nothing to do but interview with your company. If you have your resume out there, all you do is field phone calls and emails. I&#x27;m not going to pursue anything without knowing quite a bit about the job because I don&#x27;t have to. There is always going to be better, low hanging fruit - cold emails with very accurate, detailed descriptions of a wickedly cool start up, recruiters that actually get to know your skill sets and desires, and so on.<p>* No exposure to what the work will be like. It&#x27;s so secret they can&#x27;t tell you, or there is a &#x27;variety of work&#x27;, or whatever. No work environment tour. No discussion of compensation, work hours, and so on until you&#x27;ve wasted a day or more in interviews.<p>* &#x27;Go and study this book for a month, and then apply&#x27;. Um, I&#x27;m 47 and have a very successful career of inventions and products. Surely you don&#x27;t have to quiz me on red-black tree implementation to access my abilities. If I need to know that, I&#x27;ll open the book and learn it.<p>It was, by and large, very unpleasant. Perhaps it is not the best proxy, but I go in assuming the interview process is the time you are trying to impress and woo me the most, and judge you on that.
rgarcia超过 11 年前
&quot;If someone performs and earns their grant over four years, they are likely to increase the value of the company far more than the 1% or whatever you give them.&quot;<p>This argument seems flawed. If I think someone is going to double the value of my company, should I be comfortable giving them up to 100% equity? Put another way: percentage growth of your company from an early stage to some point in the future most often exceeds 100%.
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strlen超过 11 年前
There are two unmentioned issues in regards to stock grants and hiring:<p>1) Information asymmetry or just plain symmetric lack of information in regards to stock grants.<p>2) The price of a home in a decent school district within a &quot;reasonable&quot; (&lt; 1 hour each way, i.e., no more than 2 hours a day total) commute to any cluster of software companies in Bay Area (whether SOMA, Peninsula, or South Bay).<p>The two are closely related. When startups are competing for people against Google or any of the young public (or pre-IPO) technology companies, the issue at stake isn&#x27;t salary (post series-A, startups may pay a slightly below market salary, but not an egregiously low one) but RSUs (&quot;restricted stock units&quot; or essentially outright stock grants: while these are treated as income for the purpose of taxation, there&#x27;s also no strike price and AMT trap to worry about).<p>The reasons why these grants (which are generally very far from the &quot;retire on a yacht category&quot;) matter is that their ball-park value is known, they&#x27;re often refreshed as part of the performance review cycle (as opposed to fixed during offer negotiation time), and if you plan on staying in Bay Area and having kids, you&#x27;re relying upon them to either afford a house in a decent school district and with a reasonable commute, or to afford private school tuition.<p>Changing grant tactics can help with information asymmetry problem (transparency about finances and valuation is nowadays the rule rather than exception in early stage companies), but they can&#x27;t help with mutual lack of information: neither the founders nor the investors know with certainty a general ballpark figure of what the value of the company price will be at a liquidity event, or if there will be a liquidity event in the first place.<p>What this means is that unless housing problems in Bay Area are addressed, in addition to the already well discussed negative externalities, startups will have an increasingly harder time hiring engineers that haven&#x27;t yet experienced a liquidity event or spent four or more years at bigger companies. They would love to join a start-up, but not at the cost of their (future or existing) children&#x27;s education.<p>---<p>Unrelated to the above points, this paragraph is also as important as it should be obvious:<p>&quot;Finally, most founders are not willing to spend the time it takes to source engineering candidates and convince them to come interview. You can&#x27;t outsource this to a recruiter until the company is fairly well-established--you have to do it yourself.&quot;<p>If I receive a message from an external recruiter, it&#x27;s hard to tell whether they really reasonably believe there&#x27;s a good match between my skills and interest and the company, or if they&#x27;re just employing a shotgun approach. I usually disregard these messages, even when I may be open to a new opportunity. On the other hand, if I receive a message from a founder or a tech lead, I try to reply even if (as, e.g., now) I&#x27;m not interested in interviewing: at the very least, it&#x27;s likely they did actually mean to approach me specifically (not just anyone who has &quot;Hadoop&quot; in their profile), and I&#x27;ve an obligation to let them know that I&#x27;m not available at the moment as not to string them along.<p>---<p>Finally, to underscore something else said in the article, in general, best way to hire good people, is to work on something good people enjoy working on, whether it&#x27;s a greater mission or a good technical challenge. If neither of the two is there, the most straight forward startup recruiting pitch -- &quot;come work on something cool with other smart people&quot; -- fails.
zallarak超过 11 年前
Excellent essay. This really nails what I&#x27;d want in a dream job; knowing my effort influences my payout (via legitimately sized equity grants) and working on a mission I empathize with. Best article I&#x27;ve read in a while on hiring.
EGreg超过 11 年前
Why not use oDesk and overseas developers? Today&#x27;s teams communicate using remote tools even when in cubicles next door. Why severely limit yourself geographically in your search?
puppetmaster3超过 11 年前
Would you say there&#x27;s not a shortage of lawyers, and why is that?
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pastProlog超过 11 年前
The beautiful girl crunch<p>For most guys in the bay area, the beautiful girl crunch is a bigger problem than the Series A crunch (this somewhat applies to designers as well). The difference in difficulty between dating a beautiful girl and an unattractive one is remarkable--I frequently hear guys say that for unattractive girls they can find multiple great candidates without really looking but can&#x27;t find a single beautiful girl for a dating role no matter how hard they look.<p>First, of all the canonical terrible advice advisors give, being cheap is among the worst. I have never seen a hardup guy regret being generous.<p>For most beautiful girls, this is as much about fairness and feeling valued as it is about the money. And of course, if girls are going to turn down the certainty of dating a handsome, confident sales guy, they should get a reward for taking that risk.<p>If you’re going to look outside of your network of friends from your Defense of the Ancients guild (usually a mistake, but sometimes there are truly no other options), focus on recruiting girls outside of the valley.<p>Finally, most engineers are not willing to spend the time it takes to develop a normal social life with regular non-technical people whereas they might develop normal personality traits and meet someone nice. You can&#x27;t outsource this though--you have to do it yourself.<p>Footnote: * Every time someone from the government asks me what they can do to help hard-up engineers, I always say a version of &quot;The only thing you need to do is fix immigration for beautiful girls.&quot; We need more beautiful, financially desperate girls from third world countries whose standards are not as high as American ones.
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joesmo超过 11 年前
Pay 20% or more above the so called market rate and you&#x27;ll sew there is no crunch. It&#x27;s that easy.
crassus超过 11 年前
Double the equity. 9 month vesting cliff. Market salary.