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How many people does it take to colonize another star system?

55 点作者 arnauddri大约 11 年前

17 条评论

zaphoyd大约 11 年前
A somewhat related question. How many people would it take to sustainably maintain current levels of technology if given time to prepare, the ability to bring all of our knowledge (but not realtime communication with Earth), and a reasonable starting set of tools?<p>Would a generation ship with 10,000 people still be able to build an iPhone when they arrived? A GPS satellite? Is it a matter of knowledge&#x2F;ability to specialize or is it the economies of scale that make it possible to build compact high tech items?
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grej大约 11 年前
It&#x27;s an interesting thought exercise, but as many of the commenters point out, the article&#x27;s premise is a little ridiculous. With modern technology you don&#x27;t need to send the entire population. The vast majority of the genetic diversity could be in the form of frozen sperm and eggs.
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Ellipsis753大约 11 年前
&quot;Whereas in the simulations, the larger populations were allowed to have only one child per couple&quot;.<p>This seemed a little strange to me. If you have only a single child per couple wouldn&#x27;t you expect the population to at least half each generation?
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ctdonath大约 11 年前
<i>When 10,000 people are housed in one starship, there&#x27;s a potential for a giant catastrophe to wipe out almost everyone onboard. But when 10,000 people are spread out over five ships of 2000 apiece, the damage is limited.</i><p>Whatever you do, don&#x27;t go on the B Ark.
rbanffy大约 11 年前
First of all, we need better engines. We need better engines and better probes to be able to investigate candidate systems up close. We won&#x27;t send humans before we have thoroughly evaluated the environment and ensured it&#x27;s, if not safe, habitable. It&#x27;s OK if they take centuries to arrive, but it would be really great if they didn&#x27;t. They could also be accelerated and decelerated at much more than 1G, something we would prefer not to do with a live payload.<p>Second, we need better engines, better robots and better manufacturing technology. Once the right planet is found, we&#x27;ll send supplies and robots that can build the colony mostly from local resources. Hopefully, all that can withstand much greater accelerations than humans would.<p>Only then we can send humans, with human-rated engines (we can&#x27;t do much more than 1G for any significant part of the trip) and a complete habitat that can sustain the population for the duration of the trip (as seen from the passengers - relativistics may apply, depending on our progress with the all-important engine thing)<p>So, before we have better engines (and get rid of the bureaucratic problems with nuclear reactors in space), it&#x27;s really a waste of time to think about how large the crew should be. We can have that data if we build marginally better engines (yes, they are key) and colonize other planetary surfaces and asteroids. Eventually, some populations may opt to isolate themselves.<p>Also, don&#x27;t forget we may end up learning a lot about genetics well before we can build a relativistic engine. It&#x27;s perfectly reasonable to imagine we could reintroduce (or introduce, or remove) any genetic trait we want in the population at any time we need to.
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JoeAltmaier大约 11 年前
If you could invent a starship, you could also invent a new human, designed for starting civilizations. Calorie-efficient, hardworking, has litters of pups for rapid population growth, early maturity (8-10 yrs old), long-lived, prodigious learning and memory, adaptable and happy with rote work.
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skywhopper大约 11 年前
Very interesting article. There are tons of ethical and practical concerns above and beyond the genetic situation, which itself might be fixable well before a ship capable of such a journey was ready.<p>However, what I found weirdest about the article was not the topic itself, but this line: &quot;He calculated the trajectory of each population 10 times, then averaged the results. (With one exception: The starting population of 40,000 is so large that it takes 18 hours to complete each simulation, so he calculated that trajectory only once.)&quot;<p>Even without considering the possibility of running the simulation on 10 colleague&#x27;s computers or spinning up cloud VMs or any number of workarounds, how rushed was this project that a week&#x27;s worth of 18 hour MATLAB runs was considered too much work?
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waterlesscloud大约 11 年前
Related- The 1 kg Starship, with a lively discussion in the comments, from cstross among others.<p><a href="http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=30313" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.centauri-dreams.org&#x2F;?p=30313</a>
Zigurd大约 11 年前
The problem is more-daunting than stated. The mechanics of applying the energy it takes to accellerate, and decellerate, a plausible generation-ship to two orders of magnitude higher speeds than currently possible is multiple technology horizons away. Bio-engineering ourselves into forms required for millennia or tens of millennia of travel is probably much closer than acquiring that amount of energy. Indeed by the time such a ship could be built, the &quot;human&quot; form may be more distantly related to us than chimpanzees are.
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mistagiggles大约 11 年前
Very interesting, but this raises a point in my mind. If a colonisation trip takes several generations to reach its destination, would the human rights of the descendants of the original travellers be infringed?<p>They would be conceived, born, live out their lives and die without ever living anywhere but the ship (unless they are part of a generation lucky enough to reach the destination), and they would have no choice in the matter.
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kephra大约 11 年前
The following idea comes from a SciFi role playing game Traveller™:<p>The maximum sustainable techlevel of an economy equals the logarithm base 10 of the population. Even if a population of 10k-40k people is genetically healthy, they would fall back to to techlevel 4 or 5. They would be just able to sustain a technology of medieval times.
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jmnicolas大约 11 年前
I would think if your technology is advanced enough to send a spaceship for a 1000 years in space, you should be able to manipulate the human genome to avoid &quot;inbred&quot; diseases.<p>First let&#x27;s start by going back to the moon or even Mars ...
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sentenza大约 11 年前
The number could be significantly higher, since genetics might not be the limit at all. The true question is how many people it takes to maintain the complete production line of our computers, from dirt and water to boards and chips.<p>Anybody interested in interstellar colonization topic (and in particular the question of how to get hundreds of thousands of colonists there) might also want to read &quot;Neptune&#x27;s Brood&quot; by Charles Stross. The society and mechanics he describes are so far the most realistic I have ever seen.<p>Don&#x27;t want to spoil anything, but according to him, the squishy biological stuff might not be up to the job.
EGreg大约 11 年前
This is a bit silly. Yes, genetic diversity is important for surviving viruses and other pathogens that come from Earth. Because we have evolved here, we can handle the other conditions of this planet. But it&#x27;s not a guarantee that we&#x27;ll survive the subtle changes on other planets - the gravity, magnetic fields, radiation, light, composition of the atmosphere etc etc.
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DominikR大约 11 年前
Creating an artificial uterus and sending that device with frozen sperm and eggs would be more efficient.<p>I just think that it would be impossible to calculate the risks if real human beings would be sent on such a journey.
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rivd大约 11 年前
Unrelated yet more relevant question:<p>How many people does it take to properly care for ourselves and the planet we live on?
postit大约 11 年前
According to the Bible two and a bunch of animals.
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