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What Unsustainable Growth Looks Like: Herbalife, Groupon, and More

240 点作者 matm大约 11 年前

26 条评论

tapp大约 11 年前
&quot;One of the most important characteristics of a successful business is that it&#x27;s growing.&quot;<p>I hope this doesn&#x27;t come across as nitpicking, but the lead sentence of the article is incorrect. It should be:<p>One of the most important characteristics of a successful <i>STARTUP</i> is that it&#x27;s growing.<p>Businesses which successfully serve their owners, employees, customers and larger surrounding community, can easily be steady-state.<p>I realize HN is startup-focused, but I think in the interest of productive conversation it&#x27;s important to make the distinction and use precise terms.
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IvyMike大约 11 年前
A little off-topic, but Rob Cockerham&#x27;s investigation into Herbalife is one of the best pieces of citizen journalism I&#x27;ve seen.<p><a href="http://www.cockeyed.com/workfromhome/workfromhome.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cockeyed.com&#x2F;workfromhome&#x2F;workfromhome.html</a>
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jobu大约 11 年前
The author&#x27;s analogy to fried waffles reminded me of a real-world example from 10 years ago: Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/23/business/23doughnut.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2004&#x2F;11&#x2F;23&#x2F;business&#x2F;23doughnut.html</a>)<p>In the early 2000s I was living in Minnesota during the much-hyped arrival of Krispy Kreme. There were long lines at new stores and lots of doughnuts in the office every day. The hype prompted new franchises and an overabundance of doughnut shops, but unfortunately the demand dropped as the novelty wore off, and they ended up closing several stores and production facilities in the area.<p>Obviously Krispy Kreme weathered its over-expansion and is doing well today. I think the question for Groupon and Herbalife is if they have a business plan (and the financial reserves) to make the shift from exponential growth to more measured success.
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powera大约 11 年前
I think it&#x27;s worth noting this article in any discussion about Herbalife: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/10/business/staking-1-billion-that-herbalife-will-fail-then-ackman-lobbying-to-bring-it-down.html?_r=0" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;03&#x2F;10&#x2F;business&#x2F;staking-1-billion...</a><p>(summary: lots of people have lots of money invested in whether Herbalife is a pyramid scheme or not, and are lobbying hard on that.)
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paul_f大约 11 年前
The article clearly makes the case that tracking churn is critical to analyzing the overall health of a business.<p>And the reason why churn is so critical for cash-strapped startups is that new customers are so expensive. In many cases it is an order of magnitude more expensive to sell to new customers than existing customers.
berkay大约 11 年前
I do appreciate the analysis and the message of the post that the total sales can mask problems, however neither of the examples are failures. Herbalife may expand to other products instead of additional companies. Amway, probably the most successful implementer of Herbalife&#x27;s multi level marketing scheme, is over 50 years old and worth $11+ billion. Even the fictitious waffle shop can adjust by selling other products. In short, creating a large distribution chain and reaching to many customers is tremendously valuable. The company can leverage that base and move to a sustainable model. If you&#x27;re as successful as Groupon, you&#x27;ll have plenty of runway to try different things.<p>Even the ficticious waffel
stoev大约 11 年前
This reminds me of FBs ad business - they keep introducing new ad spaces, expanding their offering to more platforms, introducing logout ads, video ads, scrollable install ads, an ad platform, etc. With all of that they are just masking the fact that a large portion of their advertisers stop using them and that most of their products start losing popularity relatively quickly.
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gwern大约 11 年前
&gt; Note: the graphs included in this article were sourced from Pershing Square Capital Management’s initial presentation on Herbalife, available here.<p>Bit of a submarine there, eh? Anyway, this doesn&#x27;t make a case against Herbalife. In fact, it suggests that their data is saying the opposite. Look at the part where they talk about popping:<p>&gt; Along with Japan and Israel, this same pattern shows up in Spain, France, Germany and several other countries that Herbalife has entered.<p>Now look at their chart of # of countries against revenue. Herbalife is apparently up to almost <i>80</i> countries. Even back in the &#x27;90s, they were in 20-50 countries. Let&#x27;s be generous and say that &#x27;several other&#x27; is 5 (I don&#x27;t have the patience to go through Ackman&#x27;s propaganda), and note that this will be an exhaustive list since it&#x27;s being assembled by people with literally hundreds of millions of dollars of incentive to make the picture look as ugly as possible; that&#x27;s 10 countries that &#x27;popped&#x27;. Out of 80. If the other 70 have not popped, that does not seem like Herbalife will have problems in the future.<p>(There&#x27;s also the problem that if each country can only be soaked for a short period before &#x27;popping&#x27;, revenue should not be regularly going up! It should be flattish as Herbalife desperately opens up ever more countries to replace disappearing revenue from the popping countries.)
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netcan大约 11 年前
I think Groupon is a slightly different case to Herbalife. Herbalife had&#x2F;has a pretty substantial pyramid scheme component to it.<p>Groupon, IMO was a trend. Trends have a ballistic trajectory. The reports of hard selling and unhappy customers confuse the issue, but I think the heart of the problem was that Groupon was popular for a while and now it&#x27;s less popular.<p>Our default business systems don&#x27;t know how to deal with that kind of a thing. A company with a 2 year half life. All our financial systems and our valuation of companies are built around companies that are lang lived, practically immortal (in the sense that impacts net present value). But, not everything is like that. A film or a computer game is often produced by a firm that forms and the disbands to create a single thing. It has all the things a normal company has: employees (including some highly paid stars), investors, assets, liabilities, etc. It only exists for a short time.<p>Crocs was like that too. A product that made a splash, sold a lot of brightly colored shoes at a great margin and then contracted.<p>I think the problem with Groupon wasn&#x27;t Groupon. The problem was the whole system trying to treat it like Strabucks when it was more like Star Wars. Star Wars wasn&#x27;t a failure because it stopped making money.. ..wait. Bad example. Exceptions prove the rule.<p>Financially, a company is the NPV of all its future cash flows. In practice, the system assumes those cash flows will continue steadily forever, growing if the company is healthy. If they try to swallow a company that will exist for just 4, they choke.<p>I think we need to be on the lookout for things like this. The world is getting fast paced. Maybe we need to be able to deal with 4 year companies.
callmeed大约 11 年前
Interesting to see a YC company pick on other YC people (LikeALittle and Andrew Mason), and I don&#x27;t mean that in a bad way.
nslocum大约 11 年前
Turntable suffered a similar fate. Fred Wilson recently stated as much.<p>It had high user turnover masked by a an even faster growing user base. At least until the potential user base dried up.<p><a href="http://avc.com/2014/04/the-business-insider-interview/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;avc.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;04&#x2F;the-business-insider-interview&#x2F;</a>
stu_k大约 11 年前
In the retail space investors look at same store sales[0] (or comps) to see if a company&#x27;s growth is coming existing stores, or just from opening new ones.<p>[0] <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same_store_sales" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Same_store_sales</a>
jaybong大约 11 年前
NPR&#x27;s Planet Money had a great story on this: <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/01/18/169719749/episode-431-a-billion-dollar-bet-against-weight-loss-shakes" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.npr.org&#x2F;blogs&#x2F;money&#x2F;2013&#x2F;01&#x2F;18&#x2F;169719749&#x2F;episode-...</a><p>Agree though that there is a difference between a pyramid scheme (Herbalife imo) and a fad (Groupon) though they have similar growth trajectories.<p>There are lots of startups that could arguably be considered fads e.g. snapchat, it&#x27;s yet to be seen whether or not it&#x27;s a novelty or solving a basic human interaction problem as Facebook did.
rjf1990大约 11 年前
For startups, growth is important. Yet everyone downplays the true indicator of a company&#x27;s value: cash flow.<p>It makes sense, given that VCs are often betting on big buyouts. This is the &quot;castle in the air&quot; theory. At some point, I think the pendulum will shift into investing in companies, that while they may not have cashflow here and now, at least have the potential to generate cash.
hownottowrite大约 11 年前
Not judging Herbalife, but some data sources are less reliable than others. (Pershing Square = Bill Ackerman = billion+ short on Hebalife)<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/10/business/staking-1-billion-that-herbalife-will-fail-then-ackman-lobbying-to-bring-it-down.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;03&#x2F;10&#x2F;business&#x2F;staking-1-billion...</a>
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jacquesm大约 11 年前
One way to get unsustainable growth is by spending more on marketing than you are making back on your customer over their lifetime.<p>Given a large enough investment this could easily get you from series &#x27;A&#x27; to the next round with spectacular figures showing really nice graphs.<p>It can be quite a bit of work to figure out where the flaws are, and founders are not always aware of issues like these.
mbesto大约 11 年前
I love talking about business models (I run a bootcamp in SF helping people to visualize them), so I figured I&#x27;d chime in here...<p>&gt;<i>Eventually they’re going to run out of countries to enter, and that will be the end of Herbalife if they don’t figure out a more long-term, sustainable business model.</i><p>This statement is pure speculation. Why hasn&#x27;t any of the same analysis been done on Groupon? I&#x27;m not sure why the article conflated the two stories of Groupon and Herbalife, when their data sets and underlying assumptions are clearly very different.<p>&gt; <i>You should be able to demonstrate sustained growth in a single market segment, whether it&#x27;s a geographic region, a certain type of customer, or something else.</i><p>Isn&#x27;t this why diversification exists? Why companies like GE, P&amp;G, and now Google, have a massive portfolios of companies, as opposed to one single product that drives all growth? I&#x27;m having a hard time understanding what the takeaway is here...
programminggeek大约 11 年前
Another great example: Blackberry.<p>They did the emerging markets growth strategy and it worked to help juice their numbers for a few years until Android and iOS totally destroyed all but their core customer base.<p>The real danger in this strategy is not that it grows an unsustainable business, just that the sustainable portion is much smaller than the peak and if you forecast up and to the right growth forever, it eventually doesn&#x27;t happen and you have budget shortfalls and layoffs.<p>Hyper growth is exciting and gets you headlines, but sustainable, steady growth is probably a happier long term situation for moth businesses.
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arbuge大约 11 年前
The Herbalife graphs seem to indicate that in the countries they enter there definitely is an initial temporary pop but business doesn&#x27;t go down all the way to zero after that - it seems to settle down at a residual steady state. That could be sustainable if the 2 graphs provided (Israel, Japan) are representative of all the countries they enter. After they enter all available markets, their revenue will settle down to the sum total of all those steady states.
enginerd大约 11 年前
I see a significance in that Herbalife, Groupon, and LikeAlittle seem to be selling <i>sales</i> vs. other businesses using salesmanship as a medium. It&#x27;s a fine line, but a distinct one nonetheless.<p>Does anyone have examples of similar businesses to the aforementioned? Curious how much of a trend this actually is.
blueskin_大约 11 年前
Not heard of Herbalife before, but there are several other pyramid scheme companies in the UK. For example, Kleeneze (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kleeneze" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Kleeneze</a>).
speeder大约 11 年前
Yet the numbers are impressive.<p>My startup is struggling to have profit (we have revenue, but no profits yet, although we have growth of revenue), and many, many, many times we felt tempted to pull that sort of stunt (pyramids, freemium abuse, shady ads, etc...)
tudorconstantin大约 11 年前
I would love to own a company that reaches 6 billions in revenue in an &quot;unsustainable&quot; manner, as long as that doesn&#x27;t cost me more than the profits it produced
sfghaghhldg大约 11 年前
Yet, they seem to have lots of users and customers....
ape4大约 11 年前
GroupOn should die. I can think of nothing I would want less than a daily mail with some &quot;deal&quot;. To say nothing of the businesses that offer the deal losing money.
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codeboost大约 11 年前
Bill Ackman was wrong about Herbalife. According to wikipedia, he lost between $400 million to $500 million by shorting Herbalife last year. What that means is that other investors disagree with his (and this article&#x27;s) analysis of Herbalife.
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