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Piketty's Findings Undercut by Errors

66 点作者 wcgortel将近 11 年前

8 条评论

thanatropism将近 11 年前
In Piketty&#x27;s credit, he did make this easy.<p>Providing data for reproducibility and replicability is relatively new in economics.<p>There are, however, two kinds of claims here. One is that mistakes were made, which is grounds for schadenfreude for those (like me!) who don&#x27;t like the slight jumps in reasoning from &quot;inequality is rising&quot; to &quot;something must be done about inequality&quot; to &quot;this is what must be done&quot;. For all I know, the key injustice in modern economies is topocracy:<p><a href="https://encrypted.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCgQFjAA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Fsrep%2F2014%2F140121%2Fsrep03784%2Ffull%2Fsrep03784.html&amp;ei=aZ1_U8GRK5TLsQSu9oGACg&amp;usg=AFQjCNGi1Zdqk-6pvNbr3_4OOMyjkhEKJw&amp;sig2=SMz95_tUcVbAei7bxXtxmg&amp;bvm=bv.67720277,d.cWc" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;encrypted.google.com&#x2F;url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source...</a><p>But secondly, it is claimed that he cherry-picks. Economists (we) do that. A lot. And it has to be called out.
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hkmurakami将近 11 年前
Lawrence Summers&#x27; review&#x2F;criticism of Piketty&#x27;s tome is worth a read, even for non Summers&#x27; fans (in general I mildly disfavor Summers, but I appreciated this piece).<p><i>&quot;Piketty’s timing may be impeccable, and his easily understandable but slightly exotic accent perfectly suited to today’s media; but make no mistake, his work richly deserves all the attention it is receiving. This is not to say, however, that all of its conclusions will stand up to scholarly criticism from his fellow economists in the short run or to the test of history in the long run. Nor is it to suggest that his policy recommendations are either realistic or close to complete as a menu for addressing inequality.<p>...<p>Books that represent the last word on a topic are important. Books that represent one of the first words are even more important. By focusing attention on what has happened to a fortunate few among us, and by opening up for debate issues around the long-run functioning of our market system, Capital in the Twenty-First Century has made a profoundly important contribution.&quot;</i><p><a href="http://www.democracyjournal.org/32/the-inequality-puzzle.php?page=all" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.democracyjournal.org&#x2F;32&#x2F;the-inequality-puzzle.php...</a>
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zaroth将近 11 年前
The more substantive article on ft.com is here: <a href="http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2014/05/23/data-problems-with-capital-in-the-21st-century/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;blogs.ft.com&#x2F;money-supply&#x2F;2014&#x2F;05&#x2F;23&#x2F;data-problems-wi...</a><p>This shows the actual errors, correcting for the errors, and the new results.<p>If you get an unauthorized popup, search on Google and click the top link: <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=data-problems-with-capital-in-the-21st-century" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.google.com&#x2F;search?q=data-problems-with-capital-i...</a>
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jerryhuang100将近 11 年前
FT&#x27;s accusation sounds dubious.<p>For example, Giles claimed:<p>&quot;Piketty appears to have added random numbers to certain formula to bend the data toward his hypothesis.&quot; (from BI) and Giles: &quot;A 2 is added because the number wasn&#x27;t high enough — it didn&#x27;t seem to fit what he wanted to show in his charts, so he just added 2 to it...&quot; Source: <a href="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/537fa370eab8ea427aa0f9d8-517-334/screen%20shot%202014-05-23%20at%202.24.06%20pm.png" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;static1.businessinsider.com&#x2F;image&#x2F;537fa370eab8ea427aa...</a><p>First off, it&#x27;s not a random number. That 2 is an estimation from the two actual numbers from (Wolff 1994) Table 4. There was neither 1960 nor 1970 numbers available and only 1962 numbers (25.9% &amp; 7.5%) available from the original paper. Hence, for the difference of that 2 and 8 years, Piketty first estimated the 1960 Top 1% wealth share number (31.4%) by (25.9 + 7.5 - 2). Then, the 1970 number is calculated based on the 1960 number and the ratio of &quot;top 0.1% wealth share of 1960 and 1970, with the addition of that &quot;2&quot; which just took off for the 1960 number (2+31.4*10.4&#x2F;8.7). I would say &quot;2&quot; is reasonable, even though it&#x27;s arbitrary, to make the whole data series more smooth. Of course someone could use other estimate number for that two years, but it only makes the whole series more bizarre, and it does not change the pattern of that data series.<p>Second, FT&#x27;s own conclusion even shows the patterns are almost the same with FT&#x27;s claimed &quot;correct&quot; numbers or Piketty&#x27;s. Piketty even pointed out other researches from Saez and Zucman published after his book also confirms his finding in the book.<p>All in all, FT just sounds like trying to sell more paper&#x2F;subscription.
wcgortel将近 11 年前
Posted links to piketty&#x27;s response and more detailed explication of the issues on my blog: <a href="http://wcgortel.com/pikettys-problem" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;wcgortel.com&#x2F;pikettys-problem</a>
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jgalt212将近 11 年前
Slate has a good breakdown on this:<p><a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/05/23/financial_times_on_piketty_his_data_is_wrong.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.slate.com&#x2F;blogs&#x2F;moneybox&#x2F;2014&#x2F;05&#x2F;23&#x2F;financial_tim...</a>
ForHackernews将近 11 年前
If anyone is getting stopped by FT&#x27;s registration page, you can log in as:<p>foo25@mailinator.com &#x2F; Bugmenot
fiatjaf将近 11 年前
There are a lot of problems, they have been pointed by economists on every side of the spectrum right now, few months after the book has been published. More errors will be pointed during the years, but all the criticisms will be ignored, Piketty will be remembered as a genius for the time being and his ideas will be teached in schools and universities as if they were the God&#x27;s words.<p>Just like happened with Keynes.
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