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Cloudy With a Chance of War

81 点作者 lingben将近 11 年前

5 条评论

grey-area将近 11 年前
Well that was fascinating, and not at all what I expected from the title. The article is about the English physicist and mathematician Lewis Fry Richardson:<p><i>Richardson decided to do a “hindcast,” so his results could be compared with real weather on a target date in the past. He chose the weather over Central Europe on May 20, 1910—a date for which Bjerknes had already published a trove of data about temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, and wind speed.</i><p><i>Richardson created a map of the atmosphere over the region, split into 25 equal-sized cells with sides of about 125 miles. Every block was further divided into five layers with about the same mass of air in each layer. (Because atmospheric density decreases with altitude, these layers were divided at heights of 2, 4, 7, and 12 kilometers above the ground.)</i>
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bostik将近 11 年前
I have to wonder - did Richardson&#x27;s work influence Isaac Asimov at any point? The concept of diffusion applied to sociology sounds quite a lot like the basis of Foundation. Hell, the very idea that you could mathematically predict how nations in aggregate behave <i>does</i> sound like basis for psychohistory.<p>Asimov was a chemist, so he would have known diffusion by heart.
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thaumasiotes将近 11 年前
From the article:<p>&gt; A pilot flying through eddies too small to bump his plane around will not notice them—the effect of all the tiny eddies is averaged out into a general sense that the ride is smooth. On the other hand, neither will he notice an enormous eddy that enfolds the entire plane, any more than a fish would notice the water in which it swims.<p>I&#x27;m pretty sure that an airplane pilot would notice a wind blowing him off course. And I see that idea &quot;fish can&#x27;t notice water because they&#x27;re in it&quot; around all the time, but it&#x27;s never made any sense to me. We move through and breathe the air just like fish do the water. Far from lacking the concept of air entirely, &quot;air&quot; was one of the classical elements. People notice when they get caught in strong winds. They even notice soft winds. What are we supposed to understand from this bizarre metaphorical assertion?
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arethuza将近 11 年前
I remember this from Sagan&#x27;s <i>Cosmos</i> - it&#x27;s definitely in the book, presumably in the chapter &quot;Who Speaks for Earth?&quot;.
willyt将近 11 年前
It would be incredibly interesting to see a forecast for Europe just now. I wonder if the data he collected is available somewhere?
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