This is one of those things that we're just going to have to wait and see about, but I can't get the question out of my mind - if the FCC chooses to back the ISPs, what happens next?<p>Is a hacktivist group, deciding that the internet shouldn't be turned against it's users, going to DDoS the root DNS servers? Is everybody going to just hold their breaths, and continue with business as usual? Will a significant number of developers jump ship?<p>What do you think?
Companies will gradually start selling services piecemeal at what will be promoted as a "discount", where you buy a tiered package of sites. "Obviously, you only need Facebook, Google, and Buzzfeed. Why are you paying for that shitty internet you don't need?"<p>Public praises the lower bills, talk shows argue incessantly, and nobody grasps either the tech or the economics: the price of the discount is that large tech/infra companies no longer have to worry about competition, and can levy arbitrary entry fees.<p>Gradually the big companies open up walled app stores that let you run your internet applications within their parameters, rules, and fees. Since this is the only way to reach anyone, smaller upstarts/devlopers grudgingly accept the new way of things, until the whole shenanigan is disrupted by a little guy meeting an unmet, undervalued need out of left field.<p>And the cycle repeats.
It would be nice if NN advocates focused on improving competition in the ISP space instead of using this as a reason to give the FCC control over yet another communication medium. Mesh networks and more ISP choice would "enforce" net neutrality via consumer signals instead of the "just make it happen" solution being proposed.
Americans have swallowed second rate telecommunications services, extortionate prices and lack of competition for ages and will continue to do so, because the alternative is evil socialist government regulation.
Right now most of non-neutral networks exist specially outside of the US in cellular networks. They allow Spotify or other media streaming services deliver content to the user without charging user's data plan. Most of the companies competing in media streaming space, specially those with paid subscribers are big enough to pay the ISP for the fast lane (Beats, Netflix, Rdio etc). One exception is the fast lane (or maybe VIP lane in this case) for Facebook in developing countries. I've seen Facebook let users with no data plan whatsoever use the service in Türkie. You can see how this makes it hard for other social networks to catch up.<p>I don't think US cable companies make a tier system for websites. It doesn't make sense. All the non-media traffic isn't much that worth the discrimination. Most of the un-neutrality will be in cellular networks and media delivery.
We actually have an example of "non neutrality" in France. One of the major ISP (Free) is throttling Youtube because it considers Google should pay them for the traffic to their users.<p>Consequently, Youtube is pretty slow on this ISP.
Let's parse the premise.<p>"If net neutrality fails"<p>-- "net neutrality" -- you probably mean the currently popular version of this, which is "don't let ISPs create fast and slow lanes, and charge for the fast lanes." Or, even less precisely, "Don't let ISPs slow down the Internet."<p>The problem with this is, the FCC is actually not proposing to let ISPs create "slow lanes". It is proposing to allow ISPs to charge fees for better quality of service, not to degrade the service that's already provided. In fact the proposals quite specifically forbid this.<p>-- "if ... fails"<p>The problem with this is, net neutrality is not in effect now. And has not been at all in history, except for a brief period before the courts shot it down (because the FCC was overstepping its authority). And, nothing like the "fast/slow lanes" version of the predicted net-neutrality-copalypse has happened.<p>So to say "what if net neutrality fails" has it exactly backwards. We already know what the no-net-neutrality world looks like, we are in it now. The real question is, what if it succeeds? What will happen then?
America would be seen as less competitive. There would eventually be a brain drain in the mid-term as developers either did not emigrate, or did immigrate out of the country as other markets offer better value. Developers will start creating programs so that all traffic is masked and can not be differentiated, things like usenet will proliferate. Hardware entrepreneurs will created localized meshnets in major cities. Also, people could actually flip out. It is the dumbest thing to do from a political standpoint. Ancient Rome placated the people with panem and circus. Poverty is already pretty widespread so many people live for entertainment. If you knock this out people will wake up a bit when they have to pay a fuckton of money (that they don't have working minimum wage) for netflix.<p>It will likely lead to a massive decline in American supremecy.
You need to realize packet filtering is not without costs. Nor is negotiating with most companies. Finally, you can't get blood out of stone. Altogether meaning -- the ISPs will go after the largest of traffic producers with a threat of pay or be throttled. Some evidence, beyond what Netflix says for eg. <a href="https://twitter.com/msonnabaum/status/504073659124703232" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/msonnabaum/status/504073659124703232</a> suggests something like this is already happening. But I can't see Verizon putting up an online shop saying "Buy X TB of VIP traffic for your domain". In the long run -- perhaps even that will happen. And then? And the you will pay...
At first nothing. Most of the change will be behind the scenes where ISPs will start charging content provides more and more to deliver their content. They'll leave the little guys alone, and on the slow lanes, for now. But if your site gets popular plan to pay the piper! After a while, say 5 to 10 years the ISPs will lick their lips and start offering competing services. They will keep these services at arms length so it doesn't look so much like a competing service, e.g. NBC (which is Comcast). They'll squeeze the various third party players and buy some of them up in the end.<p>So the future looks a lot like the past: ABC, CBS and NBC with a smattering of a few others, e.g. Google.
Net neutrality is already "failed", thanks to binopolies in service areas such as Comcast/Verizon and Verizon/At&T. What happens next? You really don't know? America has the slowest internet speeds, slowest download speeds and is the most expensive in the world. You can thank the FCC and our corrupt, corporations-over-people government. What to do? cut off cable service - it is the only thing that will hurt them, and hurt them we must because reason and fairness mean nothing to corporations - they are bottomless pits of greed and will never stop squeezing until we squeeze back.
As someone who ran a wireless ISP for 3 years, there is the possibility of new competition. Wired networks are crazy expensive, but we were able to build a profitable infrastructure by renting rooftop space on tall buildings and doing directv style installations. Consumers weren't willing to pay much, so we ended up focusing on business customers. If enough people are willing to pay for neutral pipes, it might reinvigorate competition in the space--at least in dense urban areas. Our big fear at the time was fiber rollouts. Neutral nets would be a competitive advantage against big players we didn't have back then.
Nothing.<p>Quality of service will remain, at worst, as it currently is, and no one will notice a difference.<p>Netflix et al. will continue to host cache devices with ISPs, torrents will still work, video chat will still work, and chances are no startup will ever be forced to pay ISPs to deliver their packets.<p>No one will ever be presented with the option to purchase a "Social Media/Streaming/whatever Internet Package," but maybe they'll be offered the option to upgrade to a more explicit SLA with bandwidth/latency guarantees.<p>Maybe some kids will DDoS an ISP or two, but the effect will be nil.<p>That's my prediction.