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Why We Keep Playing the Lottery

49 点作者 baoyu超过 10 年前

18 条评论

jtheory超过 10 年前
I&#x27;m finding this a depressing read.<p>Hooray, we&#x27;re figuring out all of the tricks to push people into &quot;thinking myopically&quot; and buying what we want them to buy.<p>Here are the triggers; here&#x27;s how people make mistakes in buying decisions, and how to exploit that. Here&#x27;s how to frame your sell (Get them to focus on loss! Remind them of their poverty!), here&#x27;s how to get them to buy more tickets instead of just one.<p>Lottery tickets aren&#x27;t too bad; they&#x27;re harmless for most people buying them, there&#x27;s a fun little kick of &quot;what if...?&quot;, but (as the article points out) as revenue for the state, they are a regressive tax; poor people pay a much larger percentage of their income into lottery schemes than people who are better off, and of course some of them pay enough to really harm themselves, going for the &quot;Hail Mary&quot; solution to their money woes but just bleeding themselves slowly instead.<p>Winning isn&#x27;t actually a positive result, either -- the article <i>doesn&#x27;t</i> get into stats on attempted suicide, etc. for lottery winners, but they&#x27;re not good.<p>Is there anyone out there using this kind of research to actually help people? Or to let people who&#x27;re just playing a fun game, play it; but still protect the people who are grabbing at a false life preserver?
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gyardley超过 10 年前
This is the article&#x27;s key insight:<p><i>“It’s not an investment. It’s entertainment. For a very small amount of money you might change your life. For $2 you can spend the day dreaming about what you would do with half a billion dollars—half a billion dollars!”</i><p>You&#x27;re not making a bet with negative expected value, you&#x27;re purchasing an entertaining daydream to help you through your miserable day.
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Strilanc超过 10 年前
When someone tells me they play the lottery for entertainment, I lose a serious amount of respect for them. There&#x27;s being irrational, and then there&#x27;s <i>understanding exactly how your irrationality is being exploited</i> and just going along with it!<p>The negative expected value in dollars is enough by itself, but the &quot;how happy will I be?&quot; calculations are even more depressingly bad. The utility of money is usually measured on a log scale, because your first thousand dollars does a <i>lot</i> more for your happiness than your first ten thousand. By that measure going from ten thousand dollars in the bank to ten million wouldn&#x27;t make you a thousand times happier, it would make you twice as happy. At least until you get used to it (see: Hedonic treadmill [1]). There&#x27;s a surprising number of bankruptcies caused by lottery winniners, too [1]. Also the whole stressed friendship thing.<p>So... yeah, playing the lottery gets you negative respect from me and I think that&#x27;s justified.<p>1: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_treadmill" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Hedonic_treadmill</a> 2: <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1324845##" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;papers.ssrn.com&#x2F;sol3&#x2F;papers.cfm?abstract_id=1324845##</a>
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Tomte超过 10 年前
I don&#x27;t play for expected value, I play for variance.<p>And I&#x27;m tired of people telling me that it&#x27;s irrational to play the lottery, it isn&#x27;t.
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ewzimm超过 10 年前
Most of this makes sense, but I have a problem with the often-repeated assertion that humans can&#x27;t handle large numbers. We might not have an intuitive sense of astronomical odds, but that&#x27;s why we developed mathematics. We have the ability to compensate for our lack of numeracy by thinking through problems with structured languages. We can do much stranger things than calculate whether we should play the lottery. With math, we can calculate what it would be like to navigate in four-dimensional space.<p>When I hear that people act irrationally when it comes to probability, I feel like it should be replaced with the assertion that people tend to act irrationally when they have not been trained to think methodically in a particular situation or because of circumstances rely on primitive approximations. The first assertion sounds like an immutable property of human nature, when it is more of a cultural and educational issue.
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hyperliner超过 10 年前
&quot;It’s a game where reason and logic are rendered obsolete, and hope and dreams are on sale.&quot;<p>For a second there I thought the article was about one of the below:<p>- Starbucks<p>- BMW<p>- A diamond ring<p>- iPhone
gwbas1c超过 10 年前
I like lotteries that are basically just fundraisers. At least I know most of my money goes to a cause that I support.
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mstefff超过 10 年前
Most lotteries are not 1 in 175 million.. using the hardest-to-win lottery skews this article a bit..<p>I don&#x27;t really understand the point of this article. Is he trying to expose the &quot;morons&quot; who play the lottery for being just that? Maybe the $2 or so bucks means nothing to people playing. Maybe the excitement of the lead-up to the drawing and the checking of the numbers is more fun than $2 in my pocket. You can barely even buy a soda with $2 now.<p>If those jackpots swell over $200M, betting $1 to win against 1:175M odds is a good bet. If I could bet $1 to win $15 and I had a 1 in 10 chance of winning, I&#x27;d do it every time.<p>In the end, the lottery funds go towards the city&#x2F;state, and usually education. It&#x27;s a fun form of charity.
ggambetta超过 10 年前
&gt; To get your chance of winning down to a coin toss [...] You will have to plunk down your $2 at least 86 million times.<p>What am I missing here? $2x86 million gives me a 50% chance of getting $590 million? 172 &lt; 295!
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pelario超过 10 年前
Why we keep paying for insurance, when the expected value is negative ? To reduce the variance of the money we lose.<p>With lottery is the same, I pay to increase the variance of the money we win.
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sosuke超过 10 年前
This was&#x2F;is key to why I play: &quot;For many poor people, he adds, there is “no scenario they can come up with in which they are suddenly going to get very rich.” To them, the lottery may be a low probability event—but so is getting a job that pays six figures.&quot;<p>Even in the case of you making six figures a year, 100,000 dollars, a $2 million dollar win is still 20 years of your life earnings all at once.
mrweasel超过 10 年前
Of cause people don&#x27;t react to the statistics that proclaim that they won&#x27;t win, because someone won the last time.<p>It doesn&#x27;t matter that the chances are 1 to 175 million, because someone did win, that&#x27;s all that counts. The only guaranteed result is not to play, that will ensure that you do not win 100% of the time.
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larrydag超过 10 年前
Best definition I&#x27;ve heard on the lottery and I wish it came from me.<p>&quot;The lottery is a tax on the innumerate&quot;
mercnet超过 10 年前
I enjoy playing Virginia&#x27;s New Year&#x27;s Millionaire Raffle lottery which sells a finite number of tickets. They cost a decent amount (I think $20) but it brings me excitement on the day they release the numbers.
cpwright超过 10 年前
The &quot;postcode&quot; lottery is interesting. I&#x27;m glad that it doesn&#x27;t exist in the US, because I expect it would get even more people who can&#x27;t actually afford it to play.
ivanche超过 10 年前
Being professionally involved in somewhat similar industry, this is definitely one of best articles I&#x27;ve read about lottery. Well done!
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viach超过 10 年前
Anyway it&#x27;s cheaper than bootstrapping a startup and has similar odds to succeed.<p>&#x2F;&#x2F; pessimistic mode off
sizzzzlerz超过 10 年前
Its nothing more than state sanctified crack cocaine. Yeah, somebody is going to win eventually. Just not you.
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