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The golden quarter

67 点作者 hackerjam超过 10 年前

15 条评论

tacon超过 10 年前
This piece is of amazingly low quality. Almost all the &quot;discoveries and innovations&quot; are echoes of work performed before the golden quarter. For example, Alexander Fleming noticed the effect of penicillin in 1928. The engineering of a useful drug didn&#x27;t happen until 1942. Sulfanomides were in regular use in the 1930s. But, hey, let&#x27;s assign &quot;antibiotics&quot; to the Golden Quarter.<p>But the laugh out loud quote is this:<p>&quot;if you were a biologist, physicist or materials scientist, there was no better time to be working&quot;<p>Physics is slower now because the energy levels to probe new phenonmena is getting awfully big, but biology? That is simply ludicrous. The golden age of biology is right now, and for the next fifty years. Today&#x27;s material scientists are building things atom by atom, with undreamed of properties, and nanotechnology wasn&#x27;t even a dream back then.<p>I&#x27;d summarize the Golden Quarter as that time when the low hanging fruit dropped into the exponential growth of scientific and engineering advances. But the idea that we aren&#x27;t innovating at a blistering pace today - so far off the mark.
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exratione超过 10 年前
Arguing for a lack of progress today in comparison to half a century ago is simply a matter of not paying attention. Progress today in the fields I pay attention to, e.g. biotechnology and related materials science, is stupendous and accelerating.<p>As late as the 1940s it might have been argued that we lived in a world in the process of an exponential growth in power: storage, transmission, application, availability, falling costs. At the same time few people then saw the information revolution ahead. The high power&#x2F;low computation path expected was an E.E. &#x27;Doc&#x27; Smith future of slide rules and hand calculators contemporary with fantastical applications of raw power generation. But it turned out to be much harder than envisaged to keep that trend going for a variety of reasons good and bad.<p>If we&#x27;d got the power future instead of the computation future we&#x27;d all have a life expectancy much the same as it was in the 1940s, but be living in a transhuman world where $100 buys you the output of a pair of today&#x27;s power stations that can be cached in your clothing. It is somewhat interesting to speculate just what would be done with that level of power in relation to practical, day-to-day concerns, but getting into orbit and about across the solar system is the least of it.<p>Anyway, we got the computational future because it turns out that making that happen is much easier - and probably for the best given that computation drives medicine, not power.
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rthomas6超过 10 年前
Could it have something to do with the increase in quality and quantity of pleasant distractions? It&#x27;s in our pockets, at our desks, in our living rooms, everywhere. What if technological, political, and social progress has slowed down because it&#x27;s so easy to escape? <i>Soma</i> in the form of apps, games, and screens. Surely it is harder now for most people to concentrate on something hard and HUGE in scope when there&#x27;s something easy and fun in their pocket, ready whenever they are. This seems to be the case for me, anyway.
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j_baker超过 10 年前
&gt; Sure, our phones are great, but that’s not the same as being able to fly across the Atlantic in eight hours or eliminating smallpox.<p>I don&#x27;t understand why the author is so down on phones. You know, on the original <i>Star Trek</i> (which aired during the &quot;Golden Quarter&quot;), people found it outlandish that someone could make a communicator that could fit in the palm of your hand. Then cell phones started coming out, which is why they switched to having communicators in badges in The Next Generation. Nowadays, I guess we just take the idea for granted.<p>Beyond that, I have a computer in my pocket right now that is more powerful than a giant supercomputer 20 years ago.I can take photos using my phone that are higher quality than anything you could have found in a fancy camera 20 years ago <i>and</i> I can send it to the other side of the world in minutes if not seconds.
ajcarpy2005超过 10 年前
There has been a lot of social progress in reality. More households with computers and in more modern times, smartphones galore. Engineering of very tiny scales has grown at a strong pace especially given the difficulties and expenses of working at the smaller scales and the huge amount of mystery that still is there for how materials behave in small dimensions&#x2F;quantities.<p>Infrastructure has improved. Internet, Wireless Cell Coverage, etc. These things have been limited not just by the available technology but by the available money.<p>Solar panels have gained enormous advances in terms of price and even pretty great advances in efficiency and other technological feats. Agriculture has been heavily researched and arguably improved. (although there is a large discussion which seems ready to turn into a movement before too long...of getting more investment into aquaponics, hydroponics, vertical farming, permaculture...not large monoculture farms and water pollution from agri-chemicals)<p>Software has come a really long way in the last few decades. Accessibility of data. Price of data storage has plummeted rather fantastically.<p>What still needs focus IMO is the sort of &#x27;application of the application&#x27; ie. the use of inventions beyond just their function, what is their function ultimately solving for humanity?
dmytrish超过 10 年前
I hope that I may answer to this article with its own words:<p>&quot;During periods of technological and scientific expansion, it has often seemed that a plateau has been reached, only for a new discovery to shatter old paradigms completely&quot;
swamp40超过 10 年前
<i>&gt;&gt; &quot;Half a century ago, makers of telephones, TVs and cars prospered by building products that their buyers knew (or at least believed) would last for many years. No one sells a smartphone on that basis today; the new ideal is to render your own products obsolete as fast as possible.&quot;</i><p>I enjoyed the article, but this paragraph doesn&#x27;t exactly bolster his argument that technological advances have ground to a halt.
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beefman超过 10 年前
It&#x27;s important to distinguish discovery and adoption. Why don&#x27;t we have graphene furniture or software that works like a Bret Victor demo? Plumbing existed in Roman times, but my grandparents&#x27; generation was the first to take it for granted.<p>It&#x27;s also important to distinguish <i>depreciating</i> and <i>expansionary</i> adoption. Each generation of Intel chips depreciates previous generations and largely replaces them in the field. The innovation increases the efficiency of computing units more than their quantity.<p>I think the &quot;golden quarter&quot; was real. It was a time of tremendous expansionary adoption. Scientific discovery has not slowed since then. Efficiency-improving adoptions haven&#x27;t slowed. Expansionary adoptions have.<p>Why? The author rightly dismisses Cowen&#x27;s hypothesis of diminishing returns but suggests something equally implausible: our attitude toward risk spontaneously changed and sabotaged progress.<p>In my view, civilization is a physical process and there should be a physical explanation for long-term trends like this. Cultural changes like attitudes toward risk are manifestations.
Cthulhu_超过 10 年前
Lots of idealization and whatnot in that article, as well as some glaring errors and apparently completely ignoring the recent developments, such as various countries (and NASA) planning journeys to the moon, asteroids, and Mars again (although the asteroids are probably because of the promises of huge amounts of wealth to be gained there)
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viciousambition超过 10 年前
The problem with this is that it assumes progress in these areas is linear. For example, it&#x27;s easier to leap from bi-plane to jets than it is to go from jet airliner to something faster because a system gets more complex based on both its components and the connections between them. Simply put--there&#x27;s more that can go wrong.<p>&quot;Why can&#x27;t I travel to my destination is less than 8 hours?&quot; isn&#x27;t so much the question as &quot;Can we carry enough fuel to power an engine that&#x27;s faster?&quot;, &quot;Do we need entirely new propulsion?&quot;, &quot;If elevation could help, how do we keep this thing skirting the edge of the atmosphere and still function?&quot; etc. I don&#x27;t know anything about aeronautics, so forgive my oversimplification, but this seemed like an easy to grasp example of what I&#x27;m talking about.
Tepix超过 10 年前
There are lots of areas where we&#x27;ve seen significant breakthroughs. Astronomy is one. And the future for astronomy is bright indeed. The Gaia telescope will soon give us a vast trove of new data to learn from.<p>Virtual reality is on the brink of mass adoption. It has the potential to be more significant than the invention of the TV.<p>Let&#x27;s not even talk about nano technology, smartphones, tablets, notebook computers, satellite tv, ...
ytturbed超过 10 年前
Why can&#x27;t recovering from WW2 have been the cause? Re-building institutions and cities from scratch causes people to think more creatively.
az0xff超过 10 年前
I have a feeling that a lot of the advances of the Golden Quarter have a lot to do with the Cold War. Parties on both sides of the war were pushed to create progress in order to best those on the other side. That kind of fierce competition doesn&#x27;t exist at the same scale in today&#x27;s world.<p>Am I wrong?
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ceedan超过 10 年前
Another one of these &quot;Innovation is Dead&quot; articles. yay
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Eleutheria超过 10 年前
They killed the golden quarter when they killed the gold standard.<p>Innovation was replaced by massive plundering and easy money from criminal politics instead of creativity and productivity from healthy economics. The promotion of parasites who suck the tit of the state replaced the brilliant minds who gave us all the progress of that beautiful era.<p>Only the internet survives as a fountainhead of innovation because it still is considered ungoverned territory.