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Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

434 点作者 gpoort超过 10 年前

133 条评论

dang超过 10 年前
All: much of this thread is of low quality, below the standard that Hacker News discussion should adhere to, because it doesn&#x27;t engage with what pg&#x27;s essay actually says. It merely uses it as a trigger point for passions about other things, like H1Bs and Infosys. In other words it goes on a generic tangent, and generic tangents are the vectors we most need to avoid if we want discussions that are substantive instead of a handful of always-the-sames.<p>When I see cases like this, I&#x27;ve been asking: would the Principle of Charity [1] have helped here? The answer is usually yes. In this case, the idea of pg lobbying to flood the market with cheap programming labor is not only demonstrably wrong from the article (which talks about a much smaller order of magnitude and endorses <i>lowering</i> H1B-style quotas), it fails a laugh test for anyone familiar with his arguments in general.<p>The essay may be wrong, impractical, or impolitic; if you want to criticize it, there are plenty of legit criticisms you could make, starting with: how are we to objectively evaluate who the great programmers are, when it has often been argued (including by a certain essayist) that this can&#x27;t be measured?<p>But if you&#x27;re going to dispute an article—any article—on Hacker News, you have a responsibility to engage with what it really says. The Principle of Charity is the best way I know of to formalize this requirement, and unless someone can make a case for any bad consequences of doing so, we&#x27;re planning to add it officially to the HN Guidelines in the new year.<p>1. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_charity" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Principle_of_charity</a> and <a href="http://philosophy.lander.edu/oriental/charity.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;philosophy.lander.edu&#x2F;oriental&#x2F;charity.html</a>
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sz4kerto超过 10 年前
Hm, an article from pg I don&#x27;t really agree with (even if I am benefiting from EU&#x27;s open labor market).<p>There are plenty of &#x27;exceptional&#x27; programmers out there with not exceptional salaries. Anybody is free to hire one. There are a couple of problems though:<p>- they&#x27;re hard to identify - they might be exceptional in one situation and mediocre in another situation. The fact you are doing great at company X and task Y does not guarantee you&#x27;ll be a rockstar at company W and task Z. - you don&#x27;t want to pay for them. &quot;I asked the CEO of a startup with about 70 programmers how many more he&#x27;d hire if he could get all the great programmers he wanted. He said &quot;We&#x27;d hire 30 tomorrow morning.&quot; Well, if they&#x27;re really exceptional and they worth 100x more than the others then pay them $5M&#x2F;year and they&#x27;re going to come to you. I know this won&#x27;t happen, and the reason for that is exactly the fact that you have no clue how much they&#x27;re going to worth for you. You could even pay only $500k&#x2F;y to these excellent guys but no startup does that because they&#x27;re not sure.<p>So please let&#x27;s forget these stories about rockstar programmers and whatever. It&#x27;s simple: if US could tap the international talent pool without restrictions then labor costs would go down by 50% OR it&#x27;d be easier to find good ones quickly at the same price, therefore one of the biggest risk factor in startups would be less of a problem. I completely support this argument, by the way. Don&#x27;t dilute this debate with 10x (1000x?) programmers and companies who&#x27;d hire 30 people tomorrow morning at the market price (??) if they could find them.<p>*Edit: I have zero problem with downvotes but I&#x27;m genuinely interested in counterarguments, so please explain where am I wrong. :)
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ta75757超过 10 年前
Paul Graham is fighting for his side. I hope any developers here are smart enough to fight for theirs.<p>He&#x27;s arguing that the same companies who <i>colluded illegally to drive down the wages</i> of the &quot;best&quot; programmers, now have no interest in lowering their wages when they&#x27;re arguing for increased immigration. LOL.
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austenallred超过 10 年前
I really want to believe this, but I&#x27;m not sure that I do.<p>Of course the tech companies want to hire people from overseas; being able to hire someone from India for half the cost but have them live in the US so there&#x27;s some level of accountability&#x2F;trust is a no-brainer. Huge new, cheap talent pool.<p>But, if I&#x27;m an entry-level, US-based programmer, what I see are floods of cheap talent, some with questionable skills, coming over to compete for my job.<p>On the surface it seems as simple as a conflict of interest between employees and the companies that employ them. Supply&#x2F;demand.<p>Dig a little deeper and the argument becomes that the top programmers we&#x27;re bringing over are going to start great companies. That makes sense; part of the reason the United States is so powerful is selection bias: If we create an environment the hardest-working and smartest people in the world want to come to, the end result is a lot of great companies that create enough jobs for everyone. Elon Musk isn&#x27;t starting Tesla or SpaceX in South Africa (where he&#x27;s from). So we create an all-star selection of the human race in one country, make laws that are favorable to people coming&#x2F;staying, and the economy explodes.<p>What I&#x27;m not clear on is what the effect of opening the doors to programmers would be. Would truly great companies be started enough that the entire economy is shored up, or would it just dilute the talent pool to the extent that being a programmer isn&#x27;t a &quot;special&quot; job you get paid $150,000&#x2F;year for being decent at? The long-term, macro result of this would be interesting.
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mrottenkolber超过 10 年前
What I take away from the HN&#x2F;Startup&#x2F;Recruiting drama:<p>* Companies don&#x27;t know how find good people (they think they know how to attract them, but honestly, how can they tell? They don&#x27;t notice the ones they fail to attract, which I&#x27;d argue is most people)<p>* Companies are unable to produce (e.g. educate) good people<p>* They want to solve their failures by increasing the search space of people<p>I have no sympathy at all here. If you want good people you have to pick them up early and educate them. A startup however wants great people <i>now</i>, and they are supposed to be a great match by pure chance. This is classic irrational dream-thinking. You have to be pretty proud of yourself to expect all the good things will come to you just like that.<p>I suggest an alternative (my) approach, I call it the &quot;secret elite ninja clan&quot; approach:<p>1. Find out what skills are required in your industry.<p>2. Become a good at teaching these skills.<p>3. Find a pupil (as motivated as possible, no skills required)<p>4. Educate that pupil until a) they are as good as you are or better &#x2F; b) they loose interest and leave you<p>5. Make money by utilizing the resulting skills. Also test your pupil&#x27;s new talents.<p>6. Make pupil a partner if possible, return to step 1.<p>Also important: If you meet someone, figure out how that person can generate value, don&#x27;t get cornered by your expectations. Improvise, diversify.<p>I am currently with my third pupil (first two were not motivated enough) and she seems to have it in her blood. I think if we keep up we can &quot;grow&quot; a pretty good company of <i>really</i> good people in a decade or so. Of course, there won&#x27;t be a CEO, or a product, just really good hourly rates.
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danmaz74超过 10 年前
It looks to me like the solution to the problem is simple. Just have a &quot;high tech visa&quot; with no number limit, but one simple requirement: The company requesting the job needs to be offering something like 150% (or 200% or whatever makes sense) the average salary of the US workforce, or in their state.<p>This will ensure that the visa will only be offered for skills that are difficult to find in the USA (or the specific State). No problem of driving salaries down.
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ulfw超过 10 年前
Here are the H1B Top Ten visa sponsors: 1 Infosys 32,379 $76,494 2 Tata Consultancy Services 8,785 $66,113 3 Wipro 6,733 $69,953 4 Deloitte Consulting 6,165 $98,980 5 Ibm 5,839 $87,789 6 Accenture 5,099 $70,878 7 Larsen &amp; Toubro Infotech 4,380 $59,933 8 Microsoft 3,911 $113,408 9 Hcl America 3,012 $81,376 10 Satyam Computer Services 2,249 $73,374<p>How many of those are America&#x27;s top tech companies who are in dire need of foreign engineers? The Top 3 by far are Indian outsourcing, sorry, &#x27;consulting&#x27; companies.<p><a href="http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2014-H1B-Visa-Sponsor.aspx" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.myvisajobs.com&#x2F;Reports&#x2F;2014-H1B-Visa-Sponsor.aspx</a>
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mrrrgn超过 10 年前
This concept of a &quot;great programmer&quot; is something I find very suspicious.<p>A competently trained engineer who works with distributed systems may implement a trivial fix and save her company tens of thousands of dollars in AWS bills.<p>Someone with a strong background in programming languages might implement a PHP -&gt; C++ cross-compiler and double the throughput of her company&#x27;s web servers.<p>The capability to recognize these improvements does not require some inborn spark of genius. Rather, it requires the prerequisite experience in some programming sub-field. Experience which can be learned.<p>Moments of rare insight do happen - &quot;hey what if we cross-compile all this crappy PHP to C++?&quot; - but these are a matter of random chance: get enough folks with programming language expertise working on a strictly PHP codebase and eventually someone will have the idea.<p>The &quot;born programmer&quot; is a myth. A great programmer is often a person with a high level of training in some particular sub-fields, and&#x2F;or, a person who is very savvy regarding the craft of building software (i.e. &quot;The Pragmatic Programmer&quot;).
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volkadav超过 10 年前
We already have visas specifically targeted at letting in exceptional talent: the O (temporary) and E (permanent) series. Of course, the tech industry lobbying is not generally speaking around those visas, but rather H1-B. So I don&#x27;t think it is entirely correct to assert that industry wants more &quot;genius visa&quot; types, they want more journeymen (gender-neutral; the kind of staff that are competent but not exceptional, or else they would be here on an E-series). Why ever would they spend lobbying dollars unless there was an expectation that spending $X on Congress today will save them $Y (Y &gt; X) in wages in the future?<p>Don&#x27;t get me wrong, I&#x27;ve greatly valued the talented non-US folks I&#x27;ve had on my teams over the years. But I&#x27;d rather we gave them an easy path to citizenship if they want to be here rather than giving more of them the opportunity to be borderline indentured servants. Then they could fully enjoy the benefits of the society they&#x27;re contributing to, including labor flexibility and the ability to bargain for a fair market wage. I&#x27;m sure the free-market enthusiasts running large tech companies or venture capital firms love that idea.
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kohanz超过 10 年前
There exists no practical, reliable method to identify the &quot;great&quot; programmers from the rest (other than by employing them or working with them over a significant amount of time). Many of them interview poorly. If you could actually identify these people, you&#x27;d have a billion dollar idea.<p>So that implies that in order to grant entry to the &quot;great&quot; programmers, the door needs to be wide open to everyone. I&#x27;m not saying that&#x27;s a bad thing, but it doesn&#x27;t appear to be addressed by PG.
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wallflower超过 10 年前
If you put all the engineers at Facebook, Apple, Google into a typically-sized college football stadium, they would barely fill it. The new digital economy is not inclusive for everyone, most everyone who does not produce technology is a spectator (e.g. walking down the street swiping their phone, sitting in a bar swiping their phone v. writing apps or infrastructure software).<p>The reality is that the Apple&#x2F;Google&#x2F;Facebook level (and aspiring) companies want the H1B limit raised so that they can attract the best in the world. However, there are companies with profit-based motives. Infosys, Wipro et al. extensively abuse the H1B system and create a system of indentured servitude for, mostly, the non-Apples of the world. The companies that aren&#x27;t shining stars - but like most other companies need software maintained and built to sustain their business.<p>Not every talented non-US Facebook employee wants to live in their home country. In some cases, the home country has rampant inflation&#x2F;unemployment&#x2F;bad schools&#x2F;crime. America is still very much the land of opportunity, despite its flaws.<p>Consulting agencies almost always reach a point where they can&#x27;t maintain quality and simultaneously pursue greater revenues (because they can&#x27;t hire enough good people). What usually happens, sadly, is that the revenues take precedence and they start diluting the overall work quality.<p>You still can&#x27;t beat the power of face to face human interaction unless you build something like The Matrix - where every one inside it is a hologram.
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voidlogic超过 10 年前
IMHO the real issue isn&#x27;t that they many companies can&#x27;t find great programmers, its that they only want great programmers who live in their locality.<p>For many (most?) startups in the valley, if you aren&#x27;t living in the greater SFO area, or willing to relocate there, they are not interested.<p>They are dinosaurs living in the past, fighting distributed collaboration. (Which is ironic as they are technology companies). Importing people from overseas to the bay area is actually the hard way of solving the problem.<p>From first hand XP, I can tell you going distributed has made hiring top notch talent 10x easier. And if I hire someone overseas, they don&#x27;t <i>have to</i> move...<p>Again, IMHO all the excuses like &quot;culture&quot; are bullshit, if your culture depends on holding hands as a group every day, your company culture is already fatally weak.
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moocow01超过 10 年前
How about Silicon Valley first working on actually optimizing the use of the current labor pool by letting in the REAL other 95% of programmers meaning ...<p>- Anyone over 40<p>- Anyone who doesn&#x27;t fit the profile of a 25 year old white male<p>Until this happens in any real manner, these sort of pleas are just politics as usual for economic gain.
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xiaoma超过 10 年前
&gt;<i>The US has less than 5% of the world&#x27;s population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US.</i><p>This assumption is repeated throughout the essay, but I&#x27;m not particularly convinced it&#x27;s true. Why would the qualities be evenly distributed between first world countries such as the US where programming is respected and well paid vs failed states like Nigeria or the war-torn Congo?
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DenisM超过 10 年前
I thought a lot about it, and I think I found a simple solution:<p>Keep the current h1b caps, and then auction off each visa to the highest bidder. The auction proceeds must go to the employee in question, with jail term for anyone trying to claw it back.<p>What this will do is drive the wages for the immigrant engineers ever higher, by extension raising the wages of Americans as well. It will also make sure only the best ones can be brought in, stopping the &quot;cheap import&quot; problem, and the higher wage will give the best incentive to come. Resultingly, foreign companies will be drained of talent, and American companies will become even stronger against weaker adversaries, and employing much of the best talent in the world.
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buro9超过 10 年前
There is more than immigration in the way of non-US programmers moving to the US:<p>1) Immigration<p>1) Health care<p>3) Living standards (some part cost of rent, some part accessible lifestyle, some part relationships and future plans, etc)<p>I&#x27;m a London programmer and yes immigration is an issue, but health care (for themselves and their partner) is joint #1 on that front. It&#x27;s hard not to look on US healthcare as being the worst possible product of US politics and that starts to impact the standard of living thing.<p>Most non-US programmers I know come from societies where we&#x27;re happy to pay more in tax to have a more civilised society and life. You may fix immigration, but to make the US an attractive place to want to relocate to far more needs to be fixed.
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jacquesm超过 10 年前
Why limit this to programmers? It&#x27;s not as if we&#x27;re some kind of privileged and special sub-species of humanity. People should be allowed to move around the globe at will without those pesky borders. That would be one way to get us out of the hole we&#x27;re in. Drawing arbitrary lines for certain professions and not for others only further deepens the gap.<p>Companies have long ago figured out ways to go trans-national, simply by opening up offices in low wage countries.<p>Another, easy solution if you want more talent is to pay more.
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j_baker超过 10 年前
I have a ton of issues with this post.<p>For starters, the idea that some people are just inherently exceptional programmers and others can only be competent is elitist. Is it any wonder that every programmer in Silicon Valley thinks they&#x27;re God&#x27;s gift to the programming world? We&#x27;ve been taught that to be hirable we have to be &quot;10x&quot; engineers who spend all of our free time hacking.<p>But ok, maybe you don&#x27;t agree with me on this point. You feel as though there truly is some kind of &quot;master race&quot; of programmers who are inherently gifted in ways that nobody else can learn to be gifted. That still doesn&#x27;t mean that you should agree with PG.<p>Why do we need to import all of these engineers into Silicon Valley? One of the great benefits of Software Engineering is that it can be done from anywhere in the world. Why can&#x27;t people choose to stay where they live? My suspicion is that it has more to do with entrepreneurial arrogance than anything else. Company executives simply want to build big empires with lots of programmers all under their thumb under one roof.<p>So what happens? If you want to be an engineer, you have to come to Silicon Valley and displace someone who already lives in the Bay Area. It&#x27;s displacement that breeds displacement.<p>Ok, maybe you still don&#x27;t believe me. You think that we need exceptional engineers and they <i>have</i> to be in the Bay Area. The immigration policies that tech companies are pushing for aren&#x27;t based on merit. The STEM visas only apply to people who are schooled in the US. In other words, the people who will be coming to the US on these new visas aren&#x27;t coming here because they are one of the exceptional engineers tech companies fawn after. They&#x27;re here because they have parents who can afford to send them of to the US to fancy schools. We&#x27;re not getting the &quot;poor and huddled masses&quot; that made this nation great anymore.<p>Is it any wonder people in the Bay Area hate us? We&#x27;re elitist, we displace people, and we&#x27;re importing people from affluent backgrounds.
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grandalf超过 10 年前
If someone is smart and wants to work in the US there should be no barriers to doing so. I don&#x27;t deserve any job or salary if someone else can do it better or cheaper. We are all human beings in the sense of our right to fair work and wage.<p>Who wants to wake up in the morning and think &quot;thank goodness some lawmaker is forcing someone smarter&#x2F;better than me to live in poverty so I can have this cushy job&quot;?<p>PG is right that most programmers are not all that bright. This limits the state of the art in our industry far more than most people realize.<p>[edit]: I can&#x27;t believe this thread is getting hijacked by people who oppose PG&#x27;s view on this and are downvoting comments in support of it!
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xiaoma超过 10 年前
&gt;<i>So they claim it&#x27;s because they want to drive down salaries. But if you talk to startups, you find practically every one over a certain size has gone through legal contortions to get programmers into the the US, where they then paid them the same as they&#x27;d have paid an American. Why would they go to extra trouble to get programmers for the same price? The only explanation is that they&#x27;re telling the truth: there are just not enough great programmers to go around.</i><p>And yet most start-ups pay programmers far less than they pay their lawyers.
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jacalata超过 10 年前
When I talk to startup founders, I find ones that offer me a 20% pay cut from my current job, a load of bullshit about how exciting their options are as the 156th employee, and a refusal to negotiate on salary, followed by seeing them in the paper complaining that there are no engineers in Seattle the week after I refuse their offer and tell them that it is too low.
23david超过 10 年前
As PG states:<p><pre><code> it&#x27;s easy to imagine cases where a great programmer might invent things worth 100x or even 1000x an average programmer&#x27;s salary. </code></pre> If this is true, <i>rational</i> companies should be willing to pay salaries between 100-1000x of <i>average</i> for great programmers.<p>All hail the $100M&#x2F;yr rockstar programmer.<p>I can&#x27;t wait to see the cool things that will come out of a greater distribution of wealth to hackers, geeks and programmers. Think of all the neat kickstarter campaigns that will get funded... and all of the startup ideas that can find angel funding. And all the open-source and Makerspaces and rockets etc, etc.
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edw519超过 10 年前
<i>...and while you can train people to be competent, you can&#x27;t train them to be exceptional.</i><p>Why not?<p>Every exceptional programmer I&#x27;ve ever met was unexceptional at one time. Something happened for them to become exceptional. I personally believe that while that &quot;something&quot; is most often &quot;doing&quot;, &quot;training&quot; is often a big part of the equation. And that training is more often than not training their beliefs as much as training their skills.<p>Many of the best programmers I&#x27;ve even known never imagined themselves being able to do what eventually became their norm. For a lot of them, all it took was the guidance of a caring mentor or trainer to see the possibilities.<p>Regardless of <i>where</i> programmers come from, I take it as a serious responsibility to help them become what they can be. Not saying &quot;can&#x27;t&quot; is the first step.
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cletus超过 10 年前
This is nothing new. The problems with work visas in the US are:<p>1. Cheap bodyshops consuming much of the quota; and<p>2. Immigration being tied to an employer.<p>(2) is a direct cause of (1).<p>For those that don&#x27;t know, sponsorship for a green card basically involves two stages.<p>Labor Certification (&quot;LC&quot;) is the first and most time-consuming stage. It involves &quot;proving&quot; you can&#x27;t find a US citizen to fill the job. There is then a queue with a quota system based on country of _birth_ (not citizenship). For countries with a high number of immigrants (eg Mexico, Phillipines, India, China), the queue can be _years_ long. During that time the employee is essentially an indentured servant. Employers can and do exploit this situation.<p>The Department of Labor can add to this by randomly auditing a particular application, which will add a minimum of 1-2 years to the process. Sometimes this is for cause but the DoL&#x27;s stated policy is to prevent petitioners from &quot;gaming&quot; the system so they disguise their auditing criteria by randomly selecting applications to audit.<p>The second stage is basically a formality: filing for adjustment of status.<p>So for a period of 10 years <i>or more</i> the employee may be in no position to leave, no position to negotiate and will quite possibly have to work under abominable conditions for substandard wages.<p>The LC process ostensibly has a prevailing wage determination step to ensure the employee isn&#x27;t being victimized. Trust me, it&#x27;s a joke.<p>Startups here, as a general rule, aren&#x27;t the problem. These nameless bodyshops paying $50,000&#x2F;year or less for a warm body to contract out to a Fortune 500 company for $500&#x2F;hour are.<p>If you kept the current green card quotas and simply made H1B visas portable and immigration essentially automatic when your number (in the queue) is up then you&#x27;d end a lot of these problems.
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itg超过 10 年前
Read: We don&#x27;t want to train workers or pay them a good salary. We expect them to know everything beforehand and be content with crappy wages, then wonder why the brightest kids are going into fields like medicine and high finance.
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tw04超过 10 年前
The anti-immigration people aren&#x27;t trying to keep the elite programmers out. The technology companies aren&#x27;t trying to get the elite programmers in. The technology companies are trying to pay slave wages to mediocre programmers rather than pay competitive wages to Americans.<p>I&#x27;ve watched it first hand from the sidelines. I&#x27;m not a programmer but I work directly with them on a daily basis. VERY, VERY few of the immigrants I&#x27;ve seen coming in are what I would consider remotely in the realm of elite.<p>Elite programers can find a job in any country, and they can make a ton of money in any country. That&#x27;s the beauty of the internet, there&#x27;s absolutely no reason they need to come to the US to flourish. The people trying to come here aren&#x27;t the elites.
rayiner超过 10 年前
I think very few people don&#x27;t want the U.S. to let in exceptional programmers. But the fact is that &quot;1%&quot; programmers are 1% of the population. Tech companies have tremendous trouble identifying those 1% from the other 99%. The government is almost certainly going to do a worse job at that. And if the government delegates screening to the private sector, then the system is tremendously gameable. So the issue isn&#x27;t whether we should let in those 1% programmers. It&#x27;s wether it&#x27;s worth it to let in 99 mediocre programmers for every exceptional one, or to create a system with tremendous incentives to import those 99 mediocre programmers in an effort to drive down wages, hoping we&#x27;ll get some exceptional ones in the process.
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bmdavi3超过 10 年前
In high school, part of the reason I chose computer programming as my future career is because I like it, and part of the reason is that I knew not a lot of other people did, or could do it well. I didn&#x27;t know what the world would be like in 20 years, but I figured that was a good way of giving myself a chance at having a good job down the road.<p>Computer science courses in college were much tougher than in most other majors, and there were many, many nights I&#x27;d be coding away to finish a project while my friends were out partying, playing video games, etc. I like art, history, and music too, but I figured it was worth it, just a few more years and it would pay off.<p>Now, just as it is starting to pay off, people are trying to change the rules. I&#x27;ve been trying to get my 10 year old nephew interested in science and math, encouraging him, so he can make the same choices down the road if he wants to. But if the plan is to swoop in at the last minute and remove the rewards for delayed gratification, maybe I should tell him to have a blast and do whatever.<p>Either allow full immigration for people in any career (best option), or have the same stifling limits for all careers (distant second). Don&#x27;t cherry pick who&#x27;s going to have their careers dis-proportionally affected.
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btilly超过 10 年前
A big problem with the current H1B system is that companies like Infosys are supposed to pay what they claim is market rate, but have every incentive to lie about the true market rate. The problem that Paul would like fixed is that there are a lot of really good programmers who startups would rightly like to hire but can&#x27;t.<p>Paul would like to eliminate the cap. But this makes the first problem worse. If you solve the first, then removing the cap makes perfect sense.<p>So how do we solve the first? My proposal is that any company wanting import an employee can, but has to post a significant bond for the cost of deporting the employee if there are problems. That immigrant is free to transfer employment. At the end of a year, if that immigrant left to go to another company, the original employer loses the bond <i></i>and<i></i> owes the difference between the immigrant&#x27;s current income and the original one.<p>Under this proposal there is a disincentive to bring in an immigrant unless said immigrant really is paid above market rate for their skills. Locals may not like the competition, but people will be hiring immigrants because they think they are better, and not because they are cheaper than the market.
cma超过 10 年前
&gt; And since good people like good colleagues, that means the best programmers could collect in just a few hubs. Maybe mostly in one hub.<p>Owner of prestige hub wants it to be more prestigous, and wants your policy support to make it happen. No where is this spelled out as a conflict of interest.<p>Ycombinator seems similar in many ways to the Law Firm partner&#x2F;prestige system, or the university prestige system, or the scientific publisher prestige system.
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droopyEyelids超过 10 年前
&gt; American technology companies want the government to make immigration easier because they say they can&#x27;t find enough programmers in the US. Anti-immigration people say that instead of letting foreigners take these jobs, we should train more Americans to be programmers. Who&#x27;s right?<p>What a biased &#x27;framing&#x27; pile of bullshit.<p>Let as many programmers in as you want. Just give them the right to quit their job without deportation, and ensure they&#x27;re paid the exact same wages as an American.<p>Thats the only honest solution to this problem. It&#x27;d make everyone happy except for the very people pushing to open immigration.
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cpwright超过 10 年前
The big issue I have with this essay is that, while I believe it is true that letting in exceptional foreign programmers would benefit the economy and that probably does not overly hurt many exceptional American programmers; I don&#x27;t see how just opening up the H1B program would achieve that.<p>Instead, I believe you might get some fraction of those exceptional programmers to come to America; but you would probably get many more less-than-exceptional programmers (which pg called competent) competing with less-than-exceptional, but competent Americans (or those who could be trained to be competent).<p>On balance, I&#x27;m unconvinced this would help.<p>Potentially, instead of having a lottery, the government should just run a dutch auction for the same sized quota. If someone is truly exceptional, it would be worth paying for them. You&#x27;d also end up naturally giving American programmers a bit of a home-field advantage; because their cost would not be burdened with the additional cost of winning an auction.
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dasil003超过 10 年前
I think it&#x27;s a bit disingenuous to not even mention cost in this article. Clearly a lot of companies are using H1-Bs to save money more than to find great programmers. Even ones that genuinely <i>want</i> exceptional programmers may not even have the capability to <i>identify</i> great programmers.
zerr超过 10 年前
Meanwhile, why don&#x27;t get better at management to allow remote work? ...
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andrewmutz超过 10 年前
I have a quick question for those arguing against PG&#x27;s position:<p>Do you genuinely believe that increasing the number of talented software engineers emigrating to the United States is bad for the United States? Or bad for <i>you</i>?<p>In the same way that I would argue for public policy that benefits us all (not just me), I think we should have immigration policies that benefit everyone, not just Software Engineers.
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thesz超过 10 年前
1) by educating you will uncover latent exceptional programmers and<p>2) by educating you will raise educational level and make life better for everyone in country (any country).<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_correlations_of_criminal_behaviour#Socioeconomic_factors" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Statistical_correlations_of_cri...</a><p><a href="http://www.commissiononhealth.org/PDF/c270deb3-ba42-4fbd-baeb-2cd65956f00e/Issue%20Brief%206%20Sept%2009%20-%20Education%20and%20Health.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.commissiononhealth.org&#x2F;PDF&#x2F;c270deb3-ba42-4fbd-bae...</a><p>Those two arguments are omitted from essay. I think it is a sign of sloppiness on PG&#x27;s part.
johnohara超过 10 年前
<i>The US has less than 5% of the world&#x27;s population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US.</i><p>That is the question isn&#x27;t it -- are those qualities &quot;evenly distributed&quot; around the world?<p>Africans make up a lot less than 5% of the great marathoners in the world. Does that mean the remaining 95% of great marathoners in the world live outside of Africa?<p>There are usually a whole host of other intangibles associated with exceptional performance, which are sometimes directly undermined by a change in physical location.
davismwfl超过 10 年前
To me the main failure and what negates the argument to me is that 95&#x2F;5% population. Yes, I agree that the US makes up a small percentage of the global population and to think we have the best, smartest or only of anything is stupidly arrogant and extremely short sighted.<p>However, to assume that of the 7 billion people on the planet and the 6.7 billion that are not in the US are comparable in education, opportunity, training and ability is just not realistic either. While I agree too that greatness can&#x27;t be taught necessarily, it also can&#x27;t exist without education, drive and opportunity.<p>The problem is when you use misleading statistics to make your argument it causes intelligent people many times to negate the validity of the entire argument. While I don&#x27;t have a problem with h1b&#x27;s overall, I do have an issue when startup&#x27;s and other companies argue they can&#x27;t find anyone in the US.<p>Having managed a large development team at one time and having used large numbers of H1B&#x27;s, what I learned was that H1B&#x27;s are far less job mobile and far more tied to the organization sponsoring their entry. Which is of course one of the core reasons companies like them. It makes competing for the same resources far cheaper and keeps wages lower overall. In most situations when demand increases and supply decreases, cost goes up across the board (e.g. salaries). In tech, the salaries don&#x27;t increase as much as the cost to the lawyers to get more H1B&#x27;s to help keep the pay lower.
1971genocide超过 10 年前
A lot of people in this thread seem to be really short sighted. Yes every tech worker&#x27;s salary will drop significantly if the United States allowed more open immigration laws. But think about this - what would have happened if elon musk, vinod khosla,Sundar Pichai though the united state was not worth the trouble ? Silicon Valley would prolly exist but wouldn&#x27;t have the monopoly on software that it has.<p>I am not an american but I am really happy that the united states government has strong anti-immigration laws. This might not be an popular opinion but the United States has mooched off talent from the rest of the world without paying for it. It has actually allowed rapid development of the start-up scene in my country who are in direct competition with the bay area. The best part is unlike the bay area most of the tech workers are able to save a majority of their money as the living cost is dirt cheap compared to the disgusting wealth extraction from the young and talented that happens in the bay area.<p>Now just for a second imagine if these tech hubs grow and take a large market share from the likes of google and facebook ?<p>As a student of Computer science who doesn&#x27;t happen to be the the united states all this is really good news and I wish the govt doesn&#x27;t listen to PG as it results in the 95% to decentralize the wealth generated from technology from the hands of PG and silicon valley. ( And I am of the believe that power is always best kept in the hands of the many compared to the hands of the few )
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chmartin超过 10 年前
&quot;it&#x27;s easy to imagine cases where a great programmer might invent things worth 100x or even 1000x an average programmer&#x27;s salary&quot; ... yet they get paid maybe 1.5x
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beejiu超过 10 年前
Anybody who travels 4,000 miles to a new country to work in, and to live with people they have never met, have proven themselves to be the sort of motivated person you want to hire.
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Tarrosion超过 10 年前
I generally find PG very convincing, but not here. Opening up immigration <i>would</i> have major side effects, though probably it would help companies hire top programmers. But rather than bear that cost, would we as a society be better off if we tried to educate children better, get more kids hooked on being makers, whatever it is you believe is important?<p>Fundamentally, making the 95-to-5 population comparison only makes sense if the 5% is at or near maximum utilization. And it&#x27;s not at all obvious that American potential talent is that heavily utilized.<p>As an aside, it&#x27;s also not at all obvious to me that we can&#x27;t teach exceptional programming, at least for some people. In fact, the idea that top programmers are vastly better than merely good programmers is also not obvious to me. Think about lifting things: Perhaps I can lift 50kg and some one else 52kg. If the task is to lift a 51kg object, the other person is infinitely better than me. But if the task is just to lift moderate weight objects, we are indistinguishable. Similarly it seems plausible that for most tasks &quot;very good&quot; programmers are indistinguishable from&quot;great&quot; ones.
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NhanH超过 10 年前
It&#x27;s kind of weird to see the same discussion being repeated over and over again, with people talking over each others with the same point, again over and over.<p>How about this instead, let&#x27;s say I&#x27;m Patio11 and I want to go to the US, how do I do that? I personally consider Patrick to be the top 1% in what he is doing. And from what I&#x27;ve seen in on of HN&#x27;s thread last week, a lot of people are aspiring to be the same.<p>Funny enough, after I typed the above paragraph, I just realized that I can&#x27;t actually think of a good way to move to the US if I was Patrick. And I&#x27;d wager I know more about immigration (pertaining to tech works) than at least most people here, seeing that some of you quoting H1B as &quot;over 100000 coming per years&quot;. H1B won&#x27;t work, you can&#x27;t have side project&#x2F; company on H1B while in the US. And I&#x27;m not particularly sure Kalzumeus Software will fit the profile for the investing&#x2F; job creators visa one. O visa is just iffy. (Special visas for country aside).<p>I&#x27;m not sure if I&#x27;m a great programmers or not. But I&#x27;m young enough to hope that I could one day be one. Please, <i>actually proposing solutions</i> on how great programmers could come to the US, with current immigration laws or any changes you think should be made. Keep bashing the H1B is not productive.<p>Or you can just come out and say &quot;fuck you foreigners&quot;, in which case I will gladly reevaluate my plan.<p>(And then there is still a whole discussion with the OPT system, for some reasons, I have not seen anyone discussing about foreigners graduate from US university, and then have to leave because of the immigration system. There are a whole lot of us too!)
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WalterBright超过 10 年前
The fascinating thing about the modern internet is it has made the development of the D programming language possible. The core development team consists of people from all over the world. They are highly competent, and few companies could afford to hire any of them, let alone convince them to relocate across the world.<p>I just think it&#x27;s awesome.
sgnelson超过 10 年前
My question is why should we only apply this to programmers? What about Mechanical engineers? What about Machinists (there is quite the demand and a very low supply of them if you talk to many manufacturers), what about Doctors, Nurses? Farmers? (there&#x27;s not much demand that I&#x27;ve heard about the need for farmers, but I think they&#x27;re important, so I&#x27;d like to bring them in to the Country.)<p>Do we only let people in because of the skills they have? What about the next set of skills that will become more important in the future? What specific set of skills do we let in, which ones do we keep out? What about people who have the potential, but currently lack the skills? How do we find those people?<p>I don&#x27;t believe in exceptional programmers, I believe in exceptional thinkers. Programming is a skill, just like any other skill. Some people will be better at it than others. But it&#x27;s a skill that can be taught. People who are more capable of being the &quot;great thinkers,&quot; are more likely to be a better programmer than not, not because of the programming language they know, but because they&#x27;re able to solve problems. If I ran a company, these are the people I want.<p>But then we come full circle, who are these people, and do I only let them in because they&#x27;re &quot;special?&quot;<p>I also think that way too much attention is paid to what Paul Graham says. Yes, he was successful with certain things, but that doesn&#x27;t mean he&#x27;s all knowing and all wise.<p>As to my biases, I&#x27;m all for immigration, but not so much for the H1B program (for ethical reasons, I&#x27;m not a big fan of the whole &quot;he has skills that no one else has, so he gets the golden ticket to the chocolate factory. To me, that just means that he&#x2F;she had a more privileged upbringing than 60-80% of the world. ie, access to clean water, food, education, electricity, computers.)
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cottonseed超过 10 年前
Even the &quot;need&quot; for exceptional programmers is really about companies getting a good deal on labor:<p>&gt; it&#x27;s easy to imagine cases where a great programmer might invent things worth 100x or even 1000x an average programmer&#x27;s salary.<p>Wouldn&#x27;t it be nice to hire people that are 100-1000x more productive while only paying them marginally more?
tomohawk超过 10 年前
There are a lot of things that should probably be fixed in the immigration system&#x2F;laws, but starting out by labeling one side &quot;anti-immigration&quot; is probably not the best place to start.<p>If you have something to say that is worthwhile, there is no need to apply labels to people who may think differently.
wheels超过 10 年前
I agree with the basic thrust of the argument, but there are a couple of sticking points:<p>The first thing that caught me reading through the comments section here is that a lot of folks complain about immigrants pushing down wages. While there are certainly places that happens, I don&#x27;t think that&#x27;s what Paul&#x27;s talking about here. However, there is another form of that which does happen -- immigrants <i>do</i> stabilize wages, even at startups, and wage fluctuation dictates some of which businesses are tenable and which aren&#x27;t (and where they&#x27;re tenable and where they aren&#x27;t -- some businesses that would make sense in Dehli wouldn&#x27;t make sense in San Francisco).<p>For the CEO mentioned, as salary goes to infinity, so to does his ability to hire as many great developers as he would like. To hire 30 developers the next day, there exists a salary which would make that possible. It&#x27;s just that his business would probably not be tenable paying that much.<p>So, I think there&#x27;s a component missing to the essay: how much wage stabilization is desirable via immigration? There&#x27;s already a salary gap between working as a developer in the Bay Area vs. working almost anywhere else. How large should the ratio be allowed to grow? How much of being the hub is defined by having wages that are a small multiplier of wages elsewhere in the world for the same positions?<p>Second, the title seems a bit unfortunate. There&#x27;s obviously not a uniform distribution of great programmers around the world. There&#x27;s probably a pretty strong correlation between the distribution of home computers a decade ago and the home countries of great developers. The distribution not being uniform isn&#x27;t really important to the point being made (it&#x27;s fair to assume that most great programmers weren&#x27;t born inside the US), but since it&#x27;s implied so prominently in the title, it&#x27;s harder to give it a pass.
gstar超过 10 年前
I wonder if it&#x27;s as simple as population ratios for programming talent.<p>Kenyan (distance) and Jamaican (sprinters) runners offer a counterpoint here, the world&#x27;s best are all from tiny regions, in fact, some are from the same family, and most all train together.<p><a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/11/01/241895965/how-one-kenyan-tribe-produces-the-worlds-best-runners" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.npr.org&#x2F;blogs&#x2F;parallels&#x2F;2013&#x2F;11&#x2F;01&#x2F;241895965&#x2F;how-...</a><p><a href="http://elitetrack.com/blogs-details-4075/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;elitetrack.com&#x2F;blogs-details-4075&#x2F;</a>
WalterBright超过 10 年前
The irony of this is that the old USSR would not allow their highly educated people to leave, fearing brain drain. Then the US does not allow highly educated people in. And of course there was the post-WW2 gold rush to grab as many german scientists and engineers as possible, and I don&#x27;t think the results of that for the US and the USSR are in dispute.<p>It&#x27;s like the other irony that we use tariffs to &#x27;protect&#x27; domestic industry and embargoes to &#x27;punish&#x27; foreign industry, yet they are merely different words for the same thing.
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silverlake超过 10 年前
There are a number of problems with this argument. (1) Great programmers are not evenly distributed around the world because most places lack good educational systems. It makes sense that most are in 1st world countries. (2) Big companies have offices in India, China and elsewhere. Immigration policy does not prevent Google from hiring every great programmer on the planet. What&#x27;s their complaint? (3) Do many companies need great programmers? Sorry, but your web&#x2F;mobile app isn&#x27;t rocket surgery. (4) For every single product on the planet the market finds a price to match supply &amp; demand. Why are tech jobs different? $200k in SF is worse than $100K in Dallas. Increase salaries; problem solved. (5) PG says startups are DESPERATE! Yet they won&#x27;t consider remote employees, so I guess they aren&#x27;t that desperate. (6) No one can spot a &quot;great&quot; programmer in a pile of resumes. Maybe your interviews and hiring committees suck?<p>The least controversial policy is 1st world countries give their foreign STEM grads Green Cards (or equivalent). The 2nd easy solution is to pay top programmers lots more money. If they are indeed worth &quot;100X or even 1000X&quot; more than the average, it makes economic sense to pay at least 5X more. Only hedge funds seem to understand this. Finally, any company with 200+ employees can put an office in India&#x2F;China and hire everyone they want. You can either wait for politicians to change immigration laws, or make remote offices work. Which is more likely?
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inflagranti超过 10 年前
I know I&#x27;ll go of a on a tangent here, too, and won&#x27;t directly address the PG posting, but it really saddens me that every time there is discussion about immigration on HN, it always degenerates into an us vs them argumentation between employer and employee and how each side can maximise their profit. Rarely anyone seems to care about the social or humanitarian angle of it, not to mention the historical significance to the US as a country. Is it really that controversial to allow other people that didn&#x27;t win the birth-lottery a chance to work here if they proven themselves to be qualified enough? Isn&#x27;t that what the US was founded on and what at least the H1B was exactly meant for? And can anyone really honestly argue that the 65k H1Bs that are awarded each year could put considerable pressure on the average wage in a country of 300M (especially considering the strict wage requirements which people seem to happily ignore in most arguments here). Why are people so upset about a few immigrants - fearing for their wages - when clearly the wage-fixing amongst Google, Apple &amp; Co. had a much more severe influence? Isn&#x27;t this obviously the typical spiel of blaming and fearing the immigrants for situations much better explained by internal actors that should be feared (and possibly punished)?
igonvalue超过 10 年前
It seems plausible that there is a dearth of exceptional programmers, and that it would be difficult to rectify this by training more. But scarcity is a fact of life in any market; is there anything special about the labor market for high-end programmers? If the CEO that pg mentions really wanted 30 programmers tomorrow, why doesn&#x27;t he attract them from other companies by offering them higher wages? Before you dismiss this as naive or impractical, let me point out that this approach has been empirically validated: Facebook was able to massively scale its developer workforce by poaching employees from Google.[0] I&#x27;m not even arguing for or against more immigration; it just seems strange to me that this essay is ignoring the elephant in the room, particularly when there&#x27;s been a well-documented conspiracy among the biggest companies in the valley to suppress developer wages.[1]<p>[0] <a href="http://techcrunch.com/2010/11/11/google-offers-staff-engineer-3-5-million-to-turn-down-facebook-offer/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;techcrunch.com&#x2F;2010&#x2F;11&#x2F;11&#x2F;google-offers-staff-enginee...</a><p>[1] <a href="http://pando.com/tag/techtopus/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;pando.com&#x2F;tag&#x2F;techtopus&#x2F;</a>
swatow超过 10 年前
I think it&#x27;s useful to rephrase the emotive, and unclear language used in this debate (like &quot;driving down prices&quot;) into the language of economics.<p>Let&#x27;s assume there are two types of programmers, normal and great.<p>Now in a competitive market (which the labor market basically is, especially since the collusion issue has been dealt with), wages and employment levels are determined by supply and demand for each type of programmer.<p>The current H-1B system allows in both kinds of programmers, increasing the supply of both kinds, and thereby lowering wages. It&#x27;s important to note that pg makes a mistake when he conflates lowering wages, with H-1B employees earning less than Americans. In fact, if wages stayed the same then the H-1B program would have no effect. When startups complain they cant find the right people, what they mean is they can&#x27;t afford the effective wage needed to steal people from Google or Facebook (there is always a number that would make them switch).<p>Now in this framework, pg&#x27;s proposal can be rephrased as &quot;use H-1Bs to increase the supply of great programmers, instead of ordinary programmers&quot;. I agree this is a good proposal, because this gives the best tradeoff in terms of cost (i.e. whatever it is that makes the US limit immigration in the first place) vs benefit (reduced costs for employers).<p>When analyzing this situation, it&#x27;s very important to note that high wages are a bad thing in themselves. Just like high prices for milk are good for milk produces and bad for milk consumers, but given the option to create cheap milk (e.g. artificially) society should always take it.<p>Some people like to compare programmers&#x27; situation to, for example, doctors. But to the extent that the AMA artificially limits supply, this is a bad thing for society. Trade unions or professional organizations that use political lobbying (or violence) to artificially limit supply, are harming society for their own benefit. People sometimes claim that tech is full of clueless nerds. I would argue that the &quot;nerdiness&quot; of tech workers also correlates with a decreased capacity for the self-deception needed to support AMA style unionization, and that this is a good thing. It might result in lower wages, all things being equal, but it also results in a better industry overall, and higher growth that itself creates higher wages.
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SCHiM超过 10 年前
While I do agree in the general sense with what is being said, I very much dislike it when numbers are abused to strengthen a subjective argument. It feels like you&#x27;re abusing facts and lying.<p>&gt;&quot;Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed&quot;<p>This is a pretty big assumption, there are huge cultural differences between, for example, India and the US. Who says that these differences could not enormously sway the distribution of great talent?<p>The next argument made is that since the US only has about 5% of the worlds population it also follows that only 5% of the worlds great programmers are naturally available there. However, apart from the question of potential, there&#x27;s also the question of opportunity. I&#x27;d wager that the standard of living in the US is substantially higher than in most other parts of the world. Which leads me to suspect, but not to prove, that that 5% of &#x27;all great programmers available&#x27; is actually quite a bit higher.<p>It&#x27;s obvious that no matter how good you _could_ be with a computer, you won&#x27;t be able to sharpen your skills if you don&#x27;t have the means and those means are more readily available in the US than in China.
loteck超过 10 年前
This may be the least inspiring, least visionary solutions for one of the tech industry&#x27;s challenges I&#x27;ve ever read from PG. That&#x27;s unfortunate.<p>The tech industry&#x27;s hostility to the basic concepts of training and employee development, which have long since been implemented in every other long-lasting trade and industry, need to change. That change needs to start with the industry&#x27;s most prominent leaders and foremost thinkers.
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thomasfoster96超过 10 年前
It&#x27;s a bit disappointing that immigration descends to bring a shouting match over who&#x27;s more patriotic far too often.<p>Paul Graham&#x27;s essay is actually pretty good - it tells gets that we&#x27;re ending up in a world where the skilled workforce is not heavily biased towards stable, highly developed countries. Rather, countries like India, China, etc now have a skilled work force probably out numbering the long-time developed countries.
fsloth超过 10 年前
For an arguments sake: Perhaps what could be changed here is the scale of time from months to years and a shift in the chosen solution space from harvesting to nurturing?<p>PG requests more star quality programmers <i>right now</i>. Perhaps a more fruitfull approach would be to figure out what makes great programmers great and figure out how to teach people to be more like them. I.e. hunter gathering for roots versus figuring out how to plant a vegetable garden. What is so great about good programmers? Love of quality, learning by doing - beyond a certain ability of concentration and verbal acuteness I&#x27;m fairly confident these could be taught to people in structured form far better than how the current institutions manage. Universities were created first and foremost to train people in complex but established and repetitive procedures - not to be crafting shops even though the latter would benefit learning the art of programming far better. Why not pour the funds required for lobbing into attempts at improving programmer education, I&#x27;m sure the ROI in the latter would far outpace the former in the long run.
cplease超过 10 年前
I&#x27;m not sure what PG thinks is so holy about the software industry if his whole argument boils down to the fact that the USA has 5% of the world&#x27;s population.<p>By the same logic, 95% of the great plumbers, carpenters, electricians, accountants, lawyers, janitors etc. are abroad as well, let them in too as long as companies here want to hire them, until the USA has &gt; 50% of the world population?
qwerta超过 10 年前
I am from EU and moving to US would not bring me much improvements. Especially with a family it is very expensive there.<p>Perhaps US could first tap resources within its borders. There are 50 million people in &#x27;fly-over&#x27; states which are sort of ignored.<p>And 1% of all men are in prison, perhaps allow them to learn (and graduate) while in prison. Right now they are not even allowed tv, not mentioning internet.
epicureanideal超过 10 年前
I think the best way to address everyone&#x27;s concerns is to do a trustworthy study (trusted by both management and engineers) on the effects of opening the doors under different scenarios.<p>How does the situation play out from everyone&#x27;s perspective? If we open the doors too fast, do we get a huge drop in wages, everyone loses their houses, and students flee from tech education? Is there a rebound after N years?<p>If we open the doors slower, are we able to maintain wages at their current level? After how many years have we fully absorbed the talent and &#x2F; or the effects of importing more talent start to ADD to the compensation of current workers, based on the improved tech ecosystem?<p>So, who can provide a model of what would happen at 3 month to 1 year intervals (I&#x27;d prefer shorter) in terms of salaries and rent, going out lets say 10-20 years?<p>Also, maintaining wages at their current level may not be a good thing. It seems that they&#x27;ve been suppressed lately and so we&#x27;d be maintaining them at a suppressed level, but this is just to start the discussion.
windlep超过 10 年前
Two immediately obvious problems in this set of arguments:<p>1) There&#x27;d be more great programmers if they wouldn&#x27;t all divide themselves amongst so many startups, the vast majority of which will fail. Some other VC&#x27;s have pointed out this problem as well. Less start-ups overall would increase the amount of great programmers available, and maybe more of them would succeed.<p>2) PG himself has said that great programmers grew up coding. PG&#x27;s own population argument misses this as the greatest populations (India &#x2F; China) do not have the wealth for kids to grow up coding. As people trying to increase the diversity of programmers have pointed out, getting this type of upbringing is hard even in America if you&#x27;re not a well-off (generally white) male.<p>There&#x27;s plenty of talent here in America, but let&#x27;s be honest, its <i>harder</i> to utilize. It&#x27;s much much easier to just import talent from countries that have education systems and cultures that do better at creating programmer talent than to fix America&#x27;s deficiencies.
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larrys超过 10 年前
&quot;American technology companies want the government to make immigration easier because they say they can&#x27;t find enough programmers in the US. &quot;<p>I think the question is who are the technology companies that want the government to make it easier. Is it &quot;traditional established&quot; companies that can&#x27;t get quality programmers because anyone good is off trying to hit the lottery at a startup? Or is it the startups (trying to hit the lottery) who can&#x27;t recruit?<p>Either way the question is if the chance of a startup working is considered mid to low (failure rate) then what happens to all of this exceptional labor down the road? The assumption that the current demand (startups) will last for a long time isn&#x27;t necessarily correct.<p>Being in business many years (longer than PG iim and it should matter actually) I&#x27;ve seen plenty of cases where people make a demand assumption that later turns out to be the reason they go out of business (buy a new warehouse, expand the restaurant and so on).
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ChrisAntaki超过 10 年前
&gt; A great programmer doesn&#x27;t merely do the same work faster. A great programmer will invent things an ordinary programmer would never even think of. &gt; ... a great programmer might invent things worth 100x or even 1000x an average programmer&#x27;s salary.<p>I like how Paul slips in some encouragement for engineers wanting to start their own businesses.
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CaptG超过 10 年前
I&#x27;m new to HN, and would consider my self a competent developer. How does a competent developer become an exceptional one?
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bahmutov超过 10 年前
You want great programmers? Exceptional? Why would any exceptional programmer go to US on H1B visa? It is such a short leash - no way anyone truly great would trade Europe or Asia for a chance to be a slave in a cubicle, ready to be fired at moment&#x27;s notice.<p>You want exceptional programmers, Paul? I will tell you a way to find the truly great ones, and promise that other developers will NOT be against it. Any developer can come here, provided that the hiring company:<p>1. Pays him &#x2F; her $1,000,000 (1 million US dollars) per year, tied to inflation. I don&#x27;t care how you search or decide, but that is the best indicator of a truly exceptional programmer - paying him &#x2F; her a LOT. 2. If the contract is broken for any reason, the exceptional developer gets the severance package, for example a 6 months salary.<p>Hmm, I do not see you or anyone else advocating for <i>exceptional</i> salaries to pay for an exceptional programming talent. Case closed.
jleyank超过 10 年前
Assuming linearity, there&#x27;s 1&#x2F;10 of the number of exceptional programmers in Canada vs the US (based on population). The educational system&#x27;s are comparable, as are the social environments. Canadians can get TN visa to work in the US with a job offer and a CV at the port of entry, so there&#x27;s no &quot;paperwork problem&quot;. Although it&#x27;s probably a bit more difficult than coming north as it&#x27;s trivial coming north...<p>So, if it&#x27;s important to hoover up the rockstars from Canada, there&#x27;s nothing stopping companies - they already have the weather advantage, and relo costs are pretty low for most singletons. The only negative is that the TN visa can&#x27;t lead to a green card. But I doubt most startups are thinking &quot;six years, get green cards for the staff&quot;.
tdicola超过 10 年前
Why can&#x27;t this argument be flipped on its side, if 95% of the best programmers are outside the US then why aren&#x27;t the venture capitalists investing in and building companies outside the US? Surely we should see 95% of their portfolio companies are outside the US too...
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rfrey超过 10 年前
There&#x27;s a number of comments here disputing the &quot;even distribution&quot; assumption pg makes. The disagreements are wrong because pg did not say that great programmers were evenly distributed, just that the qualities that make great programmers are.<p>Some of those qualities are, IMO, curiosity; a mathematical inclination; attention to detail; an ability to quickly move between levels of abstraction; and so on.<p>I have no trouble believing those qualities might be evenly distributed among all humans. Of course, in many places people with those qualities might not choose to study programming, because the local culture and economics do not reward that path. An established and reliable migration path to a place where it is valued might change those choices though.
vproman超过 10 年前
If depressing compensation isn&#x27;t a goal of tech companies, than why the collusion between many of the large tech companies via their anti-poaching agreements? Compensate them with the benefits, environment and challenges that will keep them, instead of colluding to prevent their mobility through a free market.<p>Also, if &quot;natural born, exceptional&quot; programmers are so rare, would you not have to invite 999 &quot;competent&quot; programmers, of which we supposedly need no more of, in order to get that 1 &quot;exceptional&quot; programmer which Graham claims we desperately need? So to get thousands of exceptional programmers, how many competent programmers would have to be invited into the workforce as well?
thesz超过 10 年前
1) By training you will uncover latent great programmers.<p>2) By training you will raise overall education level, making life easier and more pleasant for everyone in country (any country, not only US).<p>Either I getting old or PG getting sloppy. His latest essays do not stand a bit of critique.
angry_octet超过 10 年前
At the core of PG&#x27;s post are two related errors (1) that US companies, without immigration barriers, would <i>choose</i> to recruit these top 5% programmers, and (2) that these 5% would <i>want</i> to move to the US.<p>Whether companies even can select out this 1-in-20 person is implausible, especially from overseas. The top 25% maybe. I can only ascribe (1) to an unreasoning faith in American capitalism and (2) to a lack of travel and living overseas.<p>In my experience the 5% programmers are already taken. America does need to reduce the immigration admin burden to encourage innovation, but its only a part of the problem. And maybe American companies should try harder to innovate in other countries.
lukasm超过 10 年前
Surprisingly, the solution is the free market. Make a pool of 5k visas with almost no requirements. Companies will bid on it. Add 50 visas for startup founders. Run this experiment for al least 6 years and measure the outcome.<p>On the other hand, that maybe a good thing. If we have more &quot;Silicon Valleys&quot; there will be more innovations, more competition. We don&#x27;t need one superpower a.k.a monopoly that comes with other risks like NSA.<p>Price of starting a company is going down, markets are becoming more liquid therefore you don&#x27;t need SV crazy money to get you going. What is more, you can reach ramen profitability faster outside SF, get more talent.
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Terr_超过 10 年前
&gt; The only explanation is that they&#x27;re telling the truth: there are just not enough great programmers to go around.<p>Hardly the only explanation.<p>First, the &quot;career fakers&quot; are unlikely to be seeking international relocation, which means that imperfect interviewing&#x2F;hiring systems don&#x27;t exhibit their latent flaws as much.<p>Second, &quot;post-purchase rationalization&quot; becomes a factor: &quot;I went through this effort in the past, it must have been worth bit.&quot;<p>Third, how much more time is spent vetting a single international hire, versus the same attention to a local candidate? If the outcome is better, how much of that is due to a deeper engagement by the company?
chetanahuja超过 10 年前
Everybody seems to be discussing the pros and cons of H1-B and it&#x27;s various misuses etc. It&#x27;s very clear to anybody who&#x27;s gone through the process (as I have, both as an employee and as an employer) that this is an extremely flawed process based on a mid-20th century model of industrial work in huge factories.<p>But PG&#x27;s essays is not about necessarily maintaining or expanding the existing flawed process itself. It&#x27;s about the end goal of having a rational legal process to keep the tech ecosystem healthy. Some of the concrete ways I can think of that makes the situation better:<p>1) Right away, grant all tech degree holders from say, the worlds&#x27; top 200 universities immediate medium term visas equivalent to current OPT (Optional Practical Training periods which are short term). The current version of OPT allows about 18 months of work permit for jobs somewhat related to their degrees. An alternate, more politically palatable version of this might only include US universities and&#x2F;or only post-graduate degrees. A very basic version of this idea can simply extend the term of the current OPT to say, 5 years.<p>2) Dissociate the granting of green cards to skilled employees from a particular employer. This is a major reason H1-B visa holders feel trapped with one employer (otherwise the mobility between jobs is pretty easy for H1-B holders). Let the skilled immigrant directly apply for permanent residency based on employable skills supported by, say, education, employment, compensation history so far in their careers. Make sure equity compensation is given weight here (to treat the startup ecosystem fairly).<p>3) Remove the per-country quotas on green cards. India and China having the same quota as say, to pick a random small country - Latvia, is ridiculous and quite possibly mirrors the old style racist immigration policies from the previous centuries.<p>(1) and (2) will pretty much mitigate most of the issues foreign engineers face when participating the startup ecosystem. All three changes together will take away any motivation&#x2F;power employers have over skilled employees in today&#x27;s H1-B -&gt; green card pathway based system. This should also assuage any valid wage suppression issues raised by some people on this forum.
dangoldin超过 10 年前
Using the same argument we should be investing more in the groups that traditionally haven&#x27;t been into programming - women and minority groups. They are already US citizens without needing a visa sponsorship.
jeffdavis超过 10 年前
&quot;has gone through legal contortions to get programmers into the the US, where they then paid them the same as they&#x27;d have paid an American. Why would they go to extra trouble to get programmers for the same price?&quot;<p>I agree with the essay in general, but this seems like a fairly dumb question. Supply and demand says that a greater supply will tend to drive prices down. That may not really apply in this case, because a greater supply might result in a greater demand (for various plausible reasons); but the question just seems like a poorly-argued part of the essay.
YuriNiyazov超过 10 年前
I am surprised by this. It would be so much more efficient to concentrate on building technology that makes working with people around the world as seamless as working with them in the same office.
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Xatter超过 10 年前
Maybe we should look at what the data have to say and then formulate our opinions from evidence?<p><a href="http://www.epi.org/press/epi-analysis-finds-shortage-stem-workers/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.epi.org&#x2F;press&#x2F;epi-analysis-finds-shortage-stem-wo...</a><p><a href="http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;spectrum.ieee.org&#x2F;at-work&#x2F;education&#x2F;the-stem-crisis-i...</a><p>If you&#x27;re going to dispute these findings I look forward to reading your peer reviewed published papers.
FlipFlopsb超过 10 年前
&quot;The US has less than 5% of the world&#x27;s population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US&quot; That is some very flawed thinking right there.<p>If this statement about how all the great workers are not US was true then they could outsource all programming outside the US easily just like call centers. This article is just more propaganda to pay programmers the same wage as minimum wage.
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tezza超过 10 年前
What PG is stating is broadly true.<p>It may be possible to eke out a few more % of programmers by teaching computing more widely.<p>At the moment the bunch of programmers is fairly self-selecting, and there may be many more people who may be great programmers if exposed to the possibilities.<p>For instance, some people who would normally become metal workers, stone masons, fine artists or mechanical engineers could make excellent programmers.
spinlock超过 10 年前
I seriously doubt the wisdom of a CEO who is willing to go from 70 to 100 programmers in one morning. What&#x27;s he going to do after lunch?
strommen超过 10 年前
Sure, sounds great.<p>But out of all the people that would love to immigrate to the USA, how can we possibly distinguish the &quot;great&quot; programmers from the merely competent (or less)?<p>Hiring is already an extremely difficult problem for the most sophisticated technology companies in the country. We can&#x27;t possibly expect a government agency to do it well at all.
jerdavis超过 10 年前
I see PG&#x27;s resume, but I seriously wonder how many programmers he&#x27;s interviewed, hired, managed, and fired in the last 5 years. How often has he thought about what to pay his engineers in relation to their output and others in the group. How much experience does he personally have with offshoring? I bet not that much actually.
23david超过 10 年前
Skilled programmers are able to generate incredible economic value, and companies having difficulty hiring should consider whether they are undervaluing programmers when they set salary ranges.<p>It&#x27;s possible to quickly test this by simply adjusting the salary ranges upwards until good candidates start accepting job offers. Believe me... it works.
aristus超过 10 年前
Or, perhaps, companies should become smarter about recruiting and hiring the large-but-unknown &quot;false negatives&quot; that are generated by their current process. Easier to implement, a competitive advantage, and you don&#x27;t have to run a lobbying campaign. All you have to do is prick a few egos. Oh, wait... that&#x27;s why.
protomyth超过 10 年前
First, characterizing anyone against the current H1B program as anti-immigration is a nice political tact but has nothing to do with the truth. It is a great way of framing the other side, but it is not a nice way to debate, but it is so common.<p>The current H1B lowers prices of IT by mostly supplying body shop consultants to American corporations. Go look at the stats of who is getting the most H1Bs and the dirty tricks they are using to assure no citizen can apply for those positions. Now that the big players have been caught illegally colluding on depressing wages this is the next step to cheapen the wage pool.<p>Second, the silicon valley folks could start recruiting a lot better. Since we talk about ageism[1] and sexism so much, perhaps some effort into recruiting could be spared. While we&#x27;re at it, perhaps recruiting from other colleges that have programs[2].<p>Third, I&#x27;m all for legal immigration after all part of my family came that way, but I want the H1B program (and its hidden friends) removed. I want all the folks who came here and got degrees given first chance with NO indentured servitude to a single company. The American taxpayer had a hand in educating these students and it is high time we got value from it.<p>Yes, we should speed up the path for STEM folks we need, but it should not be at a single company&#x27;s whim.<p>1) It seems like hollywood actresses have about the same career length as programmers (30 is too old, 40 and 50 are un-hireable).<p>2) Microsoft in the 90&#x27;s made it very clear they only wanted people from the school I attended for support since we had a nice midwestern accent.
cykho超过 10 年前
I wonder what the all up cost of getting someone an H1B visa is currently? Is this an annoying bureaucratic hurtle or a real barrier to talent entering the US?<p>My perception is that the cost is around $20k (lawyers&#x2F;filing fees) + some uncertainty due to the lottery. Is that a barrier to a person that&#x27;s worth paying $100k+?
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davidw超过 10 年前
I decided to write about this myself, as a place to collect a lot of my thoughts on the errant economic and moral reasoning I see on these threads:<p><a href="http://journal.dedasys.com/2014/12/29/people-places-and-jobs/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;journal.dedasys.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;12&#x2F;29&#x2F;people-places-and-jobs...</a>
technoir超过 10 年前
Some seem to believe that software developers are so focused on programming that they were never exposed to basic macroeconomics.<p>If supply goes up, price goes down.<p>It may be better for employers, and the economy as a whole depending on how you measure, but it is not in the best economic interest of those already selling their development labor.
DontBeADick超过 10 年前
&gt; But if you talk to startups, you find practically every one over a certain size has gone through legal contortions to get programmers into the the US, where they then paid them the same as they&#x27;d have paid an American.<p>The whole argument hinges on this unverified anecdote.<p>Sorry, but your personal experience isn&#x27;t universal.
polskibus超过 10 年前
Why don&#x27;t SV companies hire programmers abroad by opening tech centers abroad? That&#x27;s what other tech companies do, either directly or via outsourcing companies like SII or EPAM. Quality control is mostly a matter of pay - if it is good enough, you will get the same quality of work as in US.
stinos超过 10 年前
But, is it really necessary that all, or most, those exceptional programmers are concentrated in one country? Becasue in the end that&#x27;s what is being advocated here: keep the US a technological &#x27;super&#x27;power. Why is that needed (honest question)? How about diversity?
jarsin超过 10 年前
Please tell me how the startup you mention identifies great programmers.<p>I would not be suprised at all that they are yet another company that thinks solving trick programming questions under pressure is what makes someone great vs not great.<p>sorry but i call bs on your startup that cant find great programmers.
rglullis超过 10 年前
One thing that I don&#x27;t get about the critics (especially the liberal-inclined) from H1B programs is: even if opening the gates ends up resulting in cheaper labor, what is <i>wrong</i> about that?<p>If the gates were open, the ones coming here to work for cheap won&#x27;t be taking your jobs at the next startup fad. They will be working doing the things that Americans don&#x27;t want to do: improving network infrastructure, doing boring TPS reports in biotech firms, basic IT, local (better) tech support, maybe modernizing your craptastical banking systems. None of the Americans that complain about H1B ever seem to realize that.<p>You guys seemed perfectly fine to have the Chinese building your railroads and to have the hispanics taking care of your children or to work in the kitchen of your favorite restaurant. So much so that you seem to be okay with giving amnesty every 10-20 years to undocumented immigrants. No need to worry, the status quo will not be challenged.
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raintrees超过 10 年前
Recognizing other countries&#x27; education&#x2F;qualification&#x2F;certifications would assist, as well (once they are here). I have spoken with a few people directly that had to start over once living in the US, their previous efforts were discounted.
andyidsinga超过 10 年前
&gt;&gt; [2] .. An influx of inexpensive but mediocre programmers is the last thing they&#x27;d want; it would destroy them<p>i wonder if the great amout of inexpensive mediocre programmers everywhere else will wtill have a similar a similar effect over the next 50 years.
tartle超过 10 年前
&quot;I asked the CEO of a startup with about 70 programmers how many more he&#x27;d hire if he could get all the great programmers he wanted. He said &quot;We&#x27;d hire 30 tomorrow morning.&quot;<p>Evidence-based policy proposal at its finest :)
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fdesmet超过 10 年前
pg may be right in some respects, but that doesn&#x27;t mean his opposition is wrong.<p>pg&#x27;s argument cannot explain the reality that we&#x27;ve all seen: companies hire droves of H1B folks who are anything but exceptional.<p>Only a fool fails to understand why.
Khelavaster超过 10 年前
I hope the qualities that make someone a great programmer aren&#x27;t evenly distributed. I hope that the American education system effectively develops those qualities on average better than any other country in the world.
Torgo超过 10 年前
Fix the obvious, rampant fraud first, otherwise you&#x27;re dumping water into a bucket with a giant hole in the bottom. If you can&#x27;t stop fraud then you can&#x27;t stop more fraud when the numbers are increased.
oskarth超过 10 年前
YC has a big advantage over US: they are not geographically bound to one place.<p>Say nothing changes in a decade. There&#x27;s nothing that&#x27;s fundamentally stopping YC from starting branches in SE Asia, Europe or Canada.
Htsthbjig超过 10 年前
Let&#x27;s put an exemple of what PG is saying: Ellon Musk<p>Ellon Musk is from South Africa, he was not born in America. He has created an enormous amount of wealth in the US.<p>It is as simple as the US won&#x27;t have self landing space rockets today without this man. Tesla would be bankrupt today, like Fisker.<p>It seems clear to me after reading comments here that Americans feel entitled to the position of world rulers they enjoy today. As if the wealth they enjoy as hegemonic power was generated in America and not all around the world.<p>Do you believe your salary is American generated? It is not. You print dollars that the world needs to use because it they don&#x27;t sanctions are raised to them, or the US just invades them.<p>But as PG is saying, the world using the dollar as world reserve could change overnight.<p>You take your privileges for granted.
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JoeAltmaier超过 10 年前
Enlightened self-interest. Great people increase opportunity. To the degree that happens, this is a good idea. In the short term there will be supply&#x2F;demand issues and some folks will get hurt.
bsbechtel超过 10 年前
Wasn&#x27;t it Ben Franklin that made a very similar appeal, regarding all occupations? The US should want the very best talent the world can produce, in every field, not just technology.
alecco超过 10 年前
Why not both ways? We should seek to make countries open their immigration (not just USA) and we should create a worldwide union of IT workers to protect abuse like they do now with H1B.
aheppenstall超过 10 年前
I think a lot of those talking about cheap labour really don&#x27;t understand how the current US immigration system works. Maybe large companies have other options but as a startup founder I&#x27;ve been through the H1-B process and it is anything but cheap and easy. Legal costs are in excess of $5k and the you must pay the employee a prevailing wage. For my cofounder this was in excess of $180k and thus as a series seed startup we simply can&#x27;t afford to exercise the visa.<p>I absolutely understand the need to protect US jobs but the situation isn&#x27;t very good when two cofounders can&#x27;t stay in the country after raising almost $1m in seed capital and employing US citizens.
xacaxulu超过 10 年前
It&#x27;s incredible what shortages exist when you don&#x27;t provide meaningful work, competitive wages or room for advancement. Time to import less demanding people.
iamwil超过 10 年前
Why would the distribution of great programmers around the world assumed to be even?<p>Is it because of widely accessible programming resources for cheap through the internet?
neaanopri超过 10 年前
We shouldn&#x27;t restrict expansions to digital talent.
trothamel超过 10 年前
Isn&#x27;t this what E-1 and E-2 visas are for?
xigency超过 10 年前
There are plenty of exceptional people who are not given any sort of meaningful opportunities.
rwallace超过 10 年前
As an anti-immigration person, my position is not the one suggested by Paul Graham. I make no claims either way regarding the ease of training people to be programmers. My position is that we should put an end to this ridiculous 19th-century idea that you can only be a productive programmer if you are physically located in the US.
pskittle超过 10 年前
late to the party but hoping someone can answer a quick question. I&#x27;m one of those people trying to learn how to code. How i do I know i&#x27;m on track to being better than a competent programmer?
duaneb超过 10 年前
Yeah, let&#x27;s prioritize blind progress over employing local citizens.
tsotha超过 10 年前
&gt;The technology companies are right. What the anti-immigration people don&#x27;t understand is that there is a huge variation in ability between competent programmers and exceptional ones, and while you can train people to be competent, you can&#x27;t train them to be exceptional.<p>What Paul Graham doesn&#x27;t understand is hardly any of the H-1B people companies are importing are exceptional, and half of them aren&#x27;t even competent. It&#x27;s not even about getting enough labor to fill open positions. It&#x27;s about flooding the market with low cost labor so US technical people lose market pricing power.<p>These companies don&#x27;t even <i>know</i> if there&#x27;s a US citizen who&#x27;s qualified for the job. I mean, this kind of stuff goes on all the time:<p>&gt;The contention of the DoJ in this indictment appears to be that Mr. Cvjeticanin was defrauding companies seeking to hire IT personnel, yet for all those hundreds of ads — ads that for the most part never ran and therefore could never yield job applications — nobody complained!<p><a href="http://www.cringely.com/2013/07/18/so-thats-how-h-1b-visa-fraud-is-done/" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cringely.com&#x2F;2013&#x2F;07&#x2F;18&#x2F;so-thats-how-h-1b-visa-fr...</a>
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rweichler超过 10 年前
What about the 95% of great companies overseas?
lukastsai超过 10 年前
a mobile readable version:<p><a href="https://getscroll.com/r/6mzz6" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;getscroll.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;6mzz6</a>
slantedview超过 10 年前
Paul&#x27;s entire argument is a strawman.<p>H1B isn&#x27;t about hiring &quot;great programmers&quot;. It IS about importing cheap labor. This fact has been proven many times, with actual data rather than rhetoric, yet we still find ourselves having this same argument over and over. Here&#x27;s a nearly 10 year old study that lays it out:<p><a href="http://www.cis.org/PayScale-H1BWages" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cis.org&#x2F;PayScale-H1BWages</a>
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xacaxulu超过 10 年前
Read, drive salaries into the dirt.
zerooneinfinity超过 10 年前
That or they can pay foreign programmers a lot less and drive the average rate down for everyone.
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shamney超过 10 年前
what about the countries that are then deprived of this talent?
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andyl超过 10 年前
&quot;American technology companies want the government to make immigration easier because they say they can&#x27;t find enough programmers in the US.&quot;<p>Clarification: can&#x27;t find enough American programmers willing to work for low foreign wages.
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michaelvkpdx超过 10 年前
Part of the reality of founding a company in the United States, and taking advantage of the freedoms and protections being in the USA offers, is that you have to work with the USA labor force.<p>If you don&#x27;t like it- well, go international. Fast food restaurants don&#x27;t get to import the best burger-slingers from Germany. Software companies have to live in the same space.<p>And it&#x27;s complete and utter BS to suggest that there&#x27;s no way we can make up for the gap in our education system. You have to invest in the society, and it takes time to train people. Railroads in the 1890&#x27;s didn&#x27;t suddenly wake up with a million trained workers at their disposal, and they didn&#x27;t have the option of importing trained workers from the UK where railroads were booming. Part of the limits of their expansion was the need for training- and when they didn&#x27;t train, they ended up with dead workers (25,000 out of a force of 1 million killed on the job in 1900 alone).<p>If someone wants to come to the USA on their own volition, and take their oath of citizenship- fantastic! We should all welcome them. But it is not up to corporations to dictate terms of citizenship at their convenience.
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mnglkhn2超过 10 年前
The value proposition needs to be right.<p>So far, tech companies only propose to let people come and work, for 3 to 6 years. There is no guarantee made to the exceptional programmer that the company will apply his&#x2F;her green card, and hence facilitate the actual act of immigration. Until The company applies and the application is approved, we are talking just about work visas and not about immigration.<p>The only reasonable way to immigrate at this moment is through family, which means come and get married to a citizen.<p>If you don&#x27;t do that, then you are totally dependent at the whim of the sponsoring company, which might decide at some point during those 6 years that you are not exceptional anymore and hence you should pack and close down all your stuff (apartment, bank accounts, etc) within 30 days (at some point not even these 30 days were not guaranteed).<p>If we discuss about having talent coming in, then the discussion has to clarify what the value on the table is.
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michaelvkpdx超过 10 年前
Typical self-service from yet another rich VC.<p>Founders don&#x27;t want to do anything to improve US society as a whole. Investment in education? Retraining workers whose skills have become dated? No- that&#x27;s expensive and doesn&#x27;t benefit the rich as much as another steady supply of below-market cost labor.<p>It&#x27;s funny that so many of the VC&#x27;s and Valley elite rail against the ills of the earth resource extraction companies (oil, coal, gas, etc...) yet see no harm in doing the same sort of scorched-earth work with human resources.
vegabook超过 10 年前
Basically this proposition makes complete sense if you&#x27;re an employer, and complete nonsense if you&#x27;re not.<p>Of course the seductive argument of the bosses is that economic growth will benefit, but the post-crisis economy is proving to concentrate all returns to capital, and none to labour.<p>It&#x27;s no wonder that those who champion it the most have nothing to worry about to feed and house their families for the rest of their lives.
patronagezero超过 10 年前
Surrender your welfare programs (social security, public schools, the postal office, health insurance, the war machine, NASA, etc) and I&#x27;ll be on board with completely open immigration. Barring that, you&#x27;re just another corporate shill looking to profit from the ignorance of the masses.
byEngineer超过 10 年前
Well, they are so constrained of talent but then they treat you like shit. What gives?
michaelochurch超过 10 年前
I don&#x27;t buy the overall argument here.<p><i>Anti-immigration people say that instead of letting foreigners take these jobs, we should train more Americans to be programmers.</i><p>I don&#x27;t think most people who oppose the disingenuous invocation of &quot;talent shortage&quot; (while discriminating against women, minorities, and programmers over 40) by tech executives are &quot;anti-immigration people&quot;. Immigration, at a reasonable rate, is a good thing.<p><i>What the anti-immigration people don&#x27;t understand is that there is a huge variation in ability between competent programmers and exceptional ones</i><p>I hate being That Guy, but... [citation needed]. I don&#x27;t exactly know who these anti-immigration people are, though.<p><i>So they claim it&#x27;s because they want to drive down salaries. But if you talk to startups, you find practically every one over a certain size has gone through legal contortions to get programmers into the the US, where they then paid them the same as they&#x27;d have paid an American.</i><p>I don&#x27;t think that it&#x27;s just about driving down salaries. I think it&#x27;s also about age discrimination (enabled by the ready availability of young programmers) and implicit expectations of obedience. In the US, you get talent or obedience but rarely both. Overseas, you have at least a chance of getting both (but if you&#x27;re hiring on the cheap, the hit rate for talent is pretty low).<p><i>He said &quot;We&#x27;d hire 30 tomorrow morning.&quot; And this is one of the hot startups that always win recruiting battles. It&#x27;s the same all over Silicon Valley. Startups are that constrained for talent.</i><p>And yet they only want to hire pedigreed men under 40 who live in California... Somehow, I don&#x27;t buy it. If you want more talent, raise wages. That&#x27;s how economics works.<p><i>Exceptional performance implies immigration. A country with only a few percent of the world&#x27;s population will be exceptional in some field only if there are a lot of immigrants working in it.</i><p>We&#x27;re still the 3rd-largest country by population, and have some of the best land, and speak the dominant language...<p>Still, I take no issue with what the H1-B program is <i>supposed</i> to be: high-talent immigration. I&#x27;m for that. But a true high-talent immigration would have, by definition, to be employer-independent, meaning that once you&#x27;re in, you&#x27;re in and can move about the economy just as easily as anyone else.<p>One of the problems with the H1-B program is that it makes it hard for visa-holders to change jobs, and leaves them beholden to their employers because they can be <i>deported</i> if they&#x27;re fired. If we&#x27;re going to have a high-talent immigration program, we should have one... but that requires an unconditional &quot;once you&#x27;re in, you&#x27;re in&quot; policy, not some subordinate&#x2F;contingent status.<p><i>Technology gives the best programmers huge leverage</i><p>I still haven&#x27;t seen it. Upper-middle income is a nice improvement, but none of the people buying houses in Palo Alto or Mountain View are programmers. They&#x27;re all VCs and product executives working 11-to-3 while the engineers do all the heavy lifting.<p><i>We have the potential to ensure that the US remains a technology superpower just by letting in a few thousand great programmers a year.</i><p>Why not just kill off the bro culture and the age discrimination? If we only need a few thousand more great programmers, then just making the industry more hospitable to women should do the job, right? If that&#x27;s all we need, there&#x27;s no reason we need our tech CEOs to lie to politicians about a &quot;talent shortage&quot; in order to get immigration policies changed.<p>Again, I have no problem with high-talent immigration. I think that we absolutely should allow more upper-tier technical people (if at a level where they&#x27;ll create more jobs than they take, and top programmers are at that level) into the country. But I don&#x27;t think that the H1-B program, as it is structured, does the right thing. Once someone has it, it should be employer-independent.
pastProlog超过 10 年前
&gt; Anti-immigration people<p>Like the author? He wants a tranche of immigration slots to open and for that tranche, indirectly if not directly, to block immigrants from Mexico, Honduras, Nigeria, and so forth. These slots are effectively only open to Indians, Chinese, and a trickle from other countries.<p>So this H1-B proposal is anti-immigrant. It means immigration only from mostly two countries. Of a certain class of person. In order to cut the wages of US programmers and force them to work more non-FLSA hours.<p>&gt; Exceptional programmers<p>This is risible. I worked with a Chinese H1-B hire who told me he had never touched a computer until he got to the US. While that may have been anomalous, research on the H1-B immigration program ( <a href="http://web.cs.ucdavis.edu/~matloff/h1b.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.cs.ucdavis.edu&#x2F;~matloff&#x2F;h1b.html</a> ) shows that it is not the best and brightest immigrating. The millionaire and billionaire angels and VC&#x27;s want to flood the US with indentured servants chained to their H1-B visa. Look at the top H1-B sponsors - they are for Tata&#x27;s indentured servants, not for people doing bleeding edge compiler&#x2F;AI&#x2F;whatever work.<p>&gt; you can train people to be competent, you can&#x27;t train them to be exceptional<p>Perhaps not, but I&#x27;ve met plenty of people with the capability to be exceptional programmers, but during non-flush times companies want programmers to have a BSCS, and with public colleges become more selective and raising their rates, they never get a chance to do so. The millionaires and billionaires get tax cuts on their capital gains, so the training they require for this work becomes more costly to the worker, and in fact more workers can&#x27;t afford it, so a shortage develops. So then the parasite millionaires want to suck off of India&#x27;s free IIT program instead of restoring US education to the level it used to be.<p>&gt; how many more he&#x27;d hire<p>Yes, times are flush now. How many was he hiring in 2008-2009? How many in 2001-2002? When the economy goes into the toilet again, there will be millions of indentured servants still here on H1-B visas. How many 40 or 50 year old programmers is he willing to hire? Or are we supposed to pay and take out big loans for our college, work 60 hour weeks in our 20s and 30s with the carrot of options while paying San Francisco rents, suffering through the post-dotcom and bank failure recessions, only to be cast aside at 40?<p>We hear about supply and demand from the oracles of economics all the time, but somehow this NEVER applies to salaries going up. I mean I am open to hiring programmers right now as well - seriously. You&#x27;ll be paid minimum wage and the output will have to be spectacular. As soon as the economy dips you&#x27;ll be gone.<p>We the programmers work. We are the creators of wealth. I have been studying biology recently, including species which have become parasites. As one species becomes more parasitic on another, it changes form completely. It usually gains hooks and suckers to latch on to the working species it is a parasite off of, and the parasite devotes its body to eating and sexual reproduction. In our modern times, the angels, the accelerators, the VC&#x27;s are the parasites. These &quot;job creators&quot; expropriate the surplus labor time of we the programmers, the network&#x2F;system&#x2F;database admins etc. who do all the work and create all the wealth. The LP&#x27;s of the big VC firms are the type of polo-playing Phillips Andover heirs you can see in the documentary &quot;Born Rich&quot;. Something I know the 20-something unkempt dorks who go to Python conferences know nothing about, although they are the ones ultimately being given their marching orders and who are getting profits sucked off their labor. These heirs have set up additional financial hurdles to getting a BSCS at a public college over the years, and the parasites now want to parasitically suck of of India&#x27;s free IIT universities and turn their graduates into H1-B coolies over here.<p>&gt; we should train<p>When the hell was the last time a tech company really trained its employees? Aside from the odd week-long class here or there? What a farce. Companies haven&#x27;t trained for decades, and the parasites who use companies to parasitically suck off the labor of those of us who actually work have reworked public US colleges to be more financially impossible to get through than they used to - then they whine they can&#x27;t find more &quot;exceptional&quot; US programmers. What a farce.
slantedview超过 10 年前
Re this footnote: &quot;An influx of inexpensive but mediocre programmers is the last thing they [Google and Facebook]&#x27;d want; it would destroy them&quot;<p>If this is the case, why aren&#x27;t Google and Facebook coming out strongly against our current H1B mechanism which is demonstrably little more than a tool for importing cheap labor?
wittgenstein超过 10 年前
Another great essay by Paul Graham that spells out the idiotic state of the current US immigration system in a clear manner. It is fucking unbelievable that even in the comments here there are still people complaining about foreign programmers driving salaries down or taking jobs from US citizens. Paul Graham is right and any intelligent person can see this.
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